Support the main points of rating
Join hands with Aibo Biology to create the first domestic mRNA vaccine. On May 11, the company announced that it had signed a cooperation agreement with Suzhou Aibo Biology on COVID-19 mRNA vaccine. Abel Biology has the core technology of mRNA vaccine design, and its CEO Mr. InBev once worked for the international mRNA vaccine giant Moderna Inc. Watson Biology has extensive experience in clinical registration, research, industrialization and marketing. On the same day, Mexico announced that it would start a phase III clinical trial of the vaccine at the end of May.
Focus on cutting-edge technology and lay out a new generation of nucleic acid drugs in advance. On April 27, the listed company signed a cooperation agreement with San Nuo Bio for antiviral nucleic acid interference drugs. San Nuobo is responsible for completing the preclinical research required for the clinical declaration of the drug, and the company has obtained exclusive rights to the drug in Chinese mainland & Johnson and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
The 13-valent pneumonia vaccine began to contribute income, and international sales were the icing on the cake. 2021Q1, a subsidiary of 13-price pneumonia vaccine, was approved and issued 1.643 million bottles, reaching 36.8% of the total batch issued in 2020. At the same time, the subsidiary reached an exclusive agreement with the Moroccan MarocVax. MarocVax guarantees to obtain a marketing license within 18 months after receiving the complete product registration file. In 2021, the vaccine sold about 2 million doses in Morocco. After the technology transfer, MarocVax will continue to purchase at least 2 million doses of vaccine solution.
Valuation
We predict that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.362 billion yuan, 1.83 billion yuan and 2.164 billion yuan, corresponding to 0.87,1.17,1.38 yuan for EPS.
Main risks faced by rating
The progress of R & D is not as expected; the speed of listing approval is not as fast as expected; sales are not as expected.