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祖名股份(003030):生鲜豆制品第一股 步入发展快车道

Ancestral shares (003030): the first share of fresh bean products steps into the fast lane of development.

西南證券 ·  Jul 2, 2021 00:00

Recommendation logic: 1, the bean products industry is steadily expanding and the pattern is scattered, which is a typical "big industry, small company". As the leader of fresh bean products and the first listed company, the ancestral name has obvious first-mover advantages. long-term and continue to benefit from the double dividend of industry expansion and share concentration. 2. The company deeply ploughs the field of bean products, and the main fresh bean products have outstanding competitive advantages, with a compound growth rate of 10% and 4.4% in quantity and price in the past five years, respectively. After years of accumulation, the ancestral name takes the lead in brand influence, capacity scale and supply chain system, building a higher competitive barrier. 3. The market share of ancestral fresh bean products in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai is only 8%, and the share ceiling is high; the company has good texture, and listing also plays an important role in the potential of the brand, and it is expected that the company will accelerate its expansion and seize share; in addition, in terms of the elongation dimension, with channel development and scale effect, profitability is expected to improve rapidly.

Bean products industry: hundreds of billions of tracks, the pattern is scattered, share concentration is a long-term process. 1. The bean products industry is a typical "large industry, small company" with rigid and steady expansion of demand, of which the capacity of fresh bean products is 60 billion yuan +, benefiting from the upgrading of consumption and the increase in the rate of urbanization. It is expected that the sector will maintain a rapid growth rate of 8% and 12% in the next 3-5 years. 2. Limited by production barriers and transportation radius, the concentration of bean products industry is low, the regional separation is obvious, and the share of CR50 is only 12%. Looking to the future, driven by many factors, such as catering chain, health awareness, stricter regulatory policies, and so on, industry reshuffle is expected to speed up obviously; with reference to the development process of neighboring Japan, China's bean products industry as a whole is in the early stage of development, and the concentration of share to the leader is a long-term process.

Ancestral advantage: "small and beautiful" subdivision leader, with high competitive barriers, obvious first-mover advantage. 1. The ancestral name has been deeply ploughing the field of bean products for a long time, in which the revenue and production capacity of fresh bean products are in the forefront of the industry. Listing also effectively boosts the potential energy of the brand and further magnifies the first-mover advantage. 2. The ancestral name fresh bean products have a full range of products, safe and rest assured, in line with the stringent quality and safety requirements of chain catering and Shang Chao channels, and the perfect product matrix can also meet the needs of one-stop shopping. 3. The ancestral name built an efficient and perfect full-process supply chain system, prospectively introduced Jindieyun information system to greatly improve management efficiency, scale effect became more prominent after listing and fund-raising, and supply chain + management + production capacity created higher barriers, which also laid a solid foundation for the future development of the company.

Growth-driven: regional expansion is expected to accelerate, direct sales and business excess is expected to continue high growth. 1. The overall market share of fresh bean products in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai is only 8%, and the share is 2-3 times higher. With the listing to enhance brand potential energy, accelerate production capacity and channel layout, management is actively trying new models such as mergers and acquisitions and joint ventures. The share is expected to accelerate. 2. With its strong strength and excellent quality, it has become the preferred partner of Shang Chao and chain catering enterprises. under the focus of the company, Shang Chao and direct marketing channels are still expected to maintain a high-speed growth of more than 30% in the future, and the development prospect is promising.

Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 110 million yuan, 160 million yuan and 220 million yuan respectively, and the net profit will maintain a compound growth of 30% in the next three years. Based on the company's leading fresh bean products, which is about to enter a period of rapid expansion, it is given a 40-fold valuation in 2021, corresponding to the target price of 36.4 yuan, and a "buy" rating for the first time.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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