Report guide
1) the real estate developers are determined to transform the medical and beauty ecological integrator; 2) the layout of the whole industry chain, the linkage between upstream and downstream; and 3) lock the high-quality target of the terminal track to create the application scene of medical and beauty consumption.
Main points of investment
Firmly transform the medical beauty ecological integrator, and steadily promote the layout of the medical beauty industry chain. The company's strategic positioning of medical and beauty industry science and technology merchants + material manufacturers + service providers, through mergers and acquisitions of medical and beauty terminal institutions to quickly cut into the medical and beauty track, and actively seek to expand upstream through product agents, cooperative production, joint research and development, equity investment and other ways; the company's planned divestiture of the main real estate business, the income structure is expected to be greatly optimized. On the one hand, the background strength of major shareholders is strong, which helps the company's smooth transformation; on the other hand, the company's core team has been built, the industry is experienced, and the work progress is advancing at a high speed. At the same time, the company implements equity incentive policy to demonstrate confidence in transformation.
The "pinching" strategy locks the high-quality target of the terminal track and creates the application scene of medical and beauty consumption. The company adopts "pinching".
The strategy cuts into the terminal track to minimize uncertainty, as evidenced by the quality of the first institution, Lian Tianmei.
Orchard bought 55% of Liantianmei Group with 697 million yuan in cash. (15.65X PE, 2.61X PS), Group owns Hangzhou Liantianmei and Victoria Medical and Beauty Hospitals. It is the leading institution in Zhejiang Province and Hangzhou City with a market share of 5.7% and 13.4% respectively in 19 years. The number of members / active users exceeds 300000 / 80,000, and the proportion of regular customers is as high as 65%. At the same time, Liantianmei has outstanding profitability, achieving revenue / net profit of 486 million yuan / 80.55 million yuan in 20 years, with a net interest rate of 17%. The original shareholder Sheng Makeup promised that Liantianmei's cumulative net profit in 21 and 22 years would not be less than 157 million yuan. In the follow-up, the company will continue to pay attention to the potential targets of income volume, profitability and Liantianmei, promote the layout of the terminal field, and create a terminal consumption application scene for the company's whole industry chain development strategy.
The upstream layout is in full bloom, and the medical and beauty business is ready to start. Since the transformation, the Olympic Park has signed strategic cooperation with Jiyuan Biology, Jiyuan Medicine, Guangzhou Institute of Medicine, KDMedical, Sainuoxiu, and Beautiful Mom, laying out upstream races such as human protein, medical mask, injection products, medical equipment, and postpartum repair. Among them, Medical Mask has initially completed the coverage of the whole industry chain from production, to research and development, to channels, and then to the brand. The company's strong academic and industrial resource empowerment company continues to expand its business layout, and has cooperated with Jinan University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Dalian Ocean University, Korea Koryo University and Yonsei University (through KDM).
Industrial fund + industrial base to build the company's ability to incubate business continuously. The company signed a strategic agreement with Western advantage Capital to set up an industrial M & A fund of 800 million yuan and an equity investment fund of 300 million yuan for the acquisition of medical and beauty service institutions / upstream industry targets. At the same time, the Olympic Park launched the Shanghai Olympic Garden Meigu project in 19 and is expected to be put into operation in 22 years. It is expected to become a platform for the transformation, service, display, release and trading of the medical layout of Aoyuan Meigu. The company has a strong ability to continue to incubate, and is expected to continue to empower the layout of the company's industrial chain.
Profit forecast and valuation: it is estimated that the income from 2021 to 2023 is 23.8,30.1 and 4.16 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of returning mother is 1.7,3.2 and 460 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 99,53,37 times of PE. Considering that the layout of the company's medical and beauty industry chain has initially taken shape, the revenue and profit volume will continue to be expanded through high-quality endogenous growth and epitaxial mergers and acquisitions in the future, and pure medical beauty will be scarce in A-share, covering and giving "overweight" rating for the first time.
Risk hints: 1) the risk of intensified market competition; 2) the risk that the progress of acquisition is not as good as expected; and 3) the risk that the progress of transformation is not as expected.