Back to the Chinese Olympic Garden, enter the medical and beauty track. In 2020, the company's controlling shareholder was changed to the China Olympic Garden, and defined the overall orientation of "technology, service and material providers in the beauty and health industry", and formally transformed to medical beauty. China Olympic Garden is a 100 billion-level comprehensive enterprise group with strong financial strength, and it has a number of industrial sectors, which accumulates a large customer base, which can provide the company with rich potential customer resources; in addition, China Olympic Garden has accumulated resources in the medical and beauty industry for several years, coupled with the Shanghai Aoyuan Meigu project, which will provide the company with rich medical and beauty industry resources.
Medical and beauty consumption is in the ascendant, and the industry pattern is expected to be reshaped. China is the second largest medical beauty market in the world after the United States, with a market size of 176.9 billion yuan in 2019 and is expected to reach 311.5 billion yuan in 2023. CAGR+15.2%;, but the penetration rate of China's medical beauty market is only 3.6%, much lower than Japan / the United States / South Korea's 11.0%, 16.6%, 20.5%, and there is broad room for penetration improvement. Medical and beauty service institutions are in the middle of the industrial chain, and 80% of their income is contributed by private institutions. At present, the concentration of private institutions is relatively low, and 70% and 75% of the market are small and medium-sized institutions. As China's medical and beauty industry enters a stage of strict rectification, the threshold for entry into the industry will be raised accordingly, thus promoting the concentration of the industry to formal medical institutions at the head.
Real estate business divestiture is imminent, medical beauty + chemical fiber new materials two-wheel drive. Since 2021, the company has accelerated the landing of Meimei, and has successfully taken the first step in the transformation by acquiring Liantianmei, the leader of Zhejiang Medical and Beauty Service institutions; in the future, the company will continue to choose the opportunity to acquire regional leading Medical and Beauty Service institutions and continue to expand horizontally and expand its business scale. In the aspect of vertical linkage, the company cooperates with Jiyuan Pharmaceutical, Jiyuan Biology, KDM and other enterprises to lay out the upstream medical beauty technology and products to empower the middle reaches; on the other hand, it cooperates with a number of MCN institutions to drain the middle reaches, thus opening the upper and lower reaches of the medical beauty industry chain. Green fiber is another important growth point of the company in the future. In April 2021, the first phase of the 40,000 ton project has been officially put into production, and the second phase of the 60,000 ton project is expected to complete the production line construction and trial operation by the end of 2022.
Investment suggestion: the net profit of the company in 21-23 is estimated to be 1.90 2.84 / 489 million yuan respectively. Through the segment plus total valuation method, the target price is 24.65 yuan. Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the market competition intensifies, the progress of the transformation of medical beauty is not as expected, and the risk of medical malpractice.