Summary of the report:
Highway port has become the infrastructure of highway logistics in China, and the scale effect is becoming more and more obvious. In 2020, the scale of China's less-than-truckload logistics market is 1.99 trillion yuan, accounting for 33% of the total road logistics, showing a rising trend year by year. Chuanhua Highway Port, as an upgraded version of Logistics Park, is an effective solution for truckload logistics road transportation. The service functions provided by the highway port, such as less than one load distribution port, warehousing, three industries and so on, are still in strong demand. At present, Chuanhua operates 54 highway ports and 9 construction highway ports, and has formed a highway transport infrastructure network all over the country. In addition, as the highway port with centralized construction and investment went through the climbing period from 2016 to 2017, the overall profitability of the highway port has been greatly improved. Under the circumstances that the epidemic had a great impact on the macro-economy in 2020, the business income of Chuanhua Highway Port Park still maintained a growth rate of 31%.
The network freight industry has entered a period of rapid development, and Chuanhua has obvious advantages in offline highway port resources.
In 2021, the online freight platforms represented by Manchu have been listed in the United States, and the online freight industry has ushered in great development. At present, the proportion of network freight GTV in the total road freight is only about 4%, and there is huge room for further growth. The business scale of Chuanhua network freight platform is growing rapidly, with revenue of 6.77 billion yuan and daily transaction volume of more than 20,000 yuan in 2020, with a monthly compound growth rate of 25%. Relying on the logistics resources and preferential tax policies of offline highway ports, Chuanhua has obvious advantages in gaining customers.
Warehouse transportation and distribution business goes deep into the manufacturing supply chain, transforming from resources to capacity. As the owner of the highway port, Chuanhua played more of the role of logistics factor provider in the past, and the construction of logistics service capacity was insufficient. In the face of the trend of increasing the degree of centralization of the logistics industry and integrating the supply chain, Chuanhua has also transformed from a resource provider to a capacity provider. Chuanhua supply chain business gradually reduces the collection business with larger capital occupation and lower gross profit, and develops the warehouse transportation and distribution business with higher gross margin and stronger customer stickiness, but higher capacity requirements. By focusing on "chemical industry, car rear, fast consumer, science and technology" and creating benchmarking projects, the supply chain business is worth looking forward to in the future.
Investment suggestion: be optimistic about the scale effect of Chuanhua Highway Port as a logistics infrastructure network, and based on this passenger advantage will effectively assist it in the development of supply chain services and network freight platform. We estimate that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.67,0.83 and 0.94 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 11.25x, 9.05x and 8.01x respectively.
Risk tips: business development is not as expected, government subsidies are declining, and the macro-economy is declining.