According to the company's semi-annual report for 2020, 20H1's revenue is 80 million yuan /-57.09%, the net profit is 153 million yuan / + 295.50%, the non-return net profit is 135 million yuan / + 275.52%, the non-return net profit is 402 million yuan /-54.34%, the net profit is 134 million yuan / + 1737.60%, and the non-return net profit is 133 million yuan / + 2001.38%.
Commercial retail business has been affected by the epidemic, accelerating the development of online and offline integration. The revenue of 20H1 retail business is 604 million yuan /-59.53%, which is mainly affected by the implementation of the new revenue criteria (the income of the joint venture model is changed from the full method to the net method). Under the comparable caliber, the revenue of 20H1 is expected to be basically the same. Affected by the epidemic, the gross profit of retail business increased by-15.28% to 234 million yuan, but the company's retail business is highly competitive, the sales scale of Fuzhou department store market remains the first, and the sales of four brands rank among the top 10 in the country. At the same time, the company took advantage of the opportunity to actively develop online channels, including live streaming and other activities, with excellent results.
The scale of warehousing and logistics continues to expand and maintain a high rental rate under the epidemic. 20H1 operates and reserves 16 logistics projects with a floor area of 164.69 million square meters, an increase of 306000 square meters over the end of 19. The epidemic lags behind the new pace of 20H1 logistics projects, and it is expected that the pace of 20H2 will be significantly faster than that of 20H1. The epidemic did not affect the rental rate, and the 20H1 rental rate reached a high level of 88.58%, which was recognized by investors. Blackstone Group continued to cooperate with the company to withdraw management, confirming the investment income of 221 million yuan. It is expected that with the help of the mature "investment and construction recruitment and withdrawal" model, the company's logistics business will continue to grow at a high level.
The expense rate is under short-term pressure, and the logistics business contributes to the high performance growth in the first half of the year. The company's 20H1 sales, management and financial expense rates are 18.29%, 11.22% and 11.22% respectively, which is 2.16,4.26 and 5.46 percentage points higher than 19H1 in comparable caliber, mainly due to the expansion of retail business and logistics business affected by the epidemic, which is expected to improve in the second half of the year. In terms of homing net profit, retail, logistics, headquarters and others contributed 0.34,1.59 and-40 million yuan respectively, of which retail was affected by the epidemic with a negative growth of-46.48%. It is expected that 20H2 will significantly improve; logistics business is the main source of profit for the company, and it is expected that as logistics projects continue to increase rapidly, they will contribute to the company's stable performance for a long time in the future.
Investment suggestion: the company's "commercial retail + warehousing logistics" two-wheel drive, retail short-term hindered but strong competitiveness, long-term stable business; logistics scale expansion steadily, REITs pilot gradually mature, follow-up profit contribution certainty. We have adjusted our profit forecast. From 2020 to 2022, the estimated EPS is 0.40,0.58 and 0.80 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 14.2,9.8,7.1 times, respectively. We are optimistic about the development of the company and maintain the rating of "prudent overweight".
Risk hints: retail market demand has dropped sharply, logistics market demand has dropped sharply, logistics land supply has been substantially tightened, and property value has decreased.