Cofco Science and Technology (000930): flexibly adjust the product structure and persist in reducing costs, increasing efficiency and greatly improving profits.

興業證券 · Sep 1, 2020 00:00

　　事件：中粮科技2020 上半年实现营收93.06 亿元，同比+4.62%；归母净利润3.65 亿元，同比+96.38%；扣非净利润3.58 亿元，同比+79.24%。

　　其中单二季度：公司营收52.37 亿元，同比+22.07%，归母净利润2.65 亿元，同比+106.59%，扣非净利润2.62 亿元，同比+77.62%。

　　医用酒精需求大增，公司灵活调整产品和原料结构，乙醇产品量稳利增。

　　上半年公司乙醇产品收入47.60 亿（同比+4.3%），毛利率16.1%（同比-1.2pct），毛利额约7.7 亿（同比+6.3%）。上半年原油价格大幅下跌，国内乙醇汽油价格同比-23%，普级酒精价格同比+6%左右，医用酒精需求大增。根据疫情防控需要，公司全力保障抗疫物资供应、加大医用级消毒酒精生产，开工率保持95%以上，上半年乙醇产品整体销量约80 万吨，其中医用酒精25 万吨。原料端，上半年玉米价格大幅上涨，基于长期以来建立的原料多样化生产工艺，公司燃料乙醇原料主要为陈水稻等，努力降低原料价格上涨对成本的影响，乙醇产品产销整体量稳利增。

　　需求成本两端冲击，淀粉及淀粉糖等产品暂承压。上半年公司玉米淀粉、糖类、味精、柠檬酸产品实现收入19.46、10.78、4.97、3.76 亿，同比+12.8%、-6.2%、-27.0%、-13.8%，其中淀粉、淀粉糖毛利率2.5%、8.1%，同比-13.2pct、-5.0pct，毛利额同比-82.3%、-42.0%。由于执行新收入准则，履约成本结转至营业成本核算，导致成本上涨、毛利下降幅度较大。受疫情影响，上半年食品配料及添加剂需求恢复缓慢，公司相应深加工产品收入下滑。

　　坚持提质增效，费用率保持下降趋势。上半年公司销售、管理、财务费用率为1.03%、2.78%、0.59%，同比-5.33pct、-0.98pct、-0.68pct。上半年公司继续对采购流程、人员结构进行优化，对柠檬酸、淀粉等多种产品进行工艺优升级，并积极争取财政贴息，公司管理费用率、财务费用率均有下降。销售费用率大幅下降主要系会计准则调整影响。公司持续进行研发投入、坚持提质增效，并具有良好的客户信誉和外贸渠道，期间费用率保持下降趋势。

　　投资建议：公司是国内玉米深加工龙头企业，各类产品市场份额行业领先。

　　随着油价恢复带动燃料乙醇价格上涨，公司主产品盈利能力将持续改善。我们预计公司2020-2022 年EPS 分别为：0.42、0.53、0.60 元，基于2020 年8月31 日收盘价，对应的PE 分别为：24.3、19.2、17.1 倍，维持“审慎增持”评级。

　　风险提示：油价波动、原料价格波动、政策变化

Event: Cofco Science and Technology achieved revenue of 9.306 billion yuan in the first half of 2020, + 4.62% year-on-year; net profit of 365 million yuan, + 96.38%; and deduction of non-net profit of 358 million yuan, + 79.24% compared with the same period last year.

In the second quarter, the company's revenue was 5.237 billion yuan, year-on-year + 22.07%, net profit 265 million yuan, year-on-year + 106.59%, non-net profit 262 million yuan, year-on-year + 77.62%.

The demand for medical alcohol has greatly increased, the company has flexibly adjusted the structure of products and raw materials, and the quantity of ethanol products has increased steadily.

In the first half of the year, the company's ethanol product revenue was 4.76 billion (year-on-year + 4.3%), gross profit was 16.1% (year-on-1.2pct), and gross profit was about 770 million (year-on-year + 6.3%). Crude oil prices fell sharply in the first half of the year, domestic ethanol gasoline prices were-23% year-on-year, general-grade alcohol prices were about 6% year-on-year, and demand for medical alcohol increased greatly. According to the needs of epidemic prevention and control, the company made every effort to ensure the supply of anti-epidemic materials, increased the production of medical-grade sterilized alcohol, and maintained an operating rate of more than 95%. The overall sales of ethanol products in the first half of the year were about 800000 tons, including 250000 tons of medical alcohol. On the raw material side, corn prices rose sharply in the first half of the year. Based on the diversified production process of raw materials established for a long time, the company's fuel ethanol raw materials are mainly aged rice, trying to reduce the impact of rising raw material prices on costs. The overall production and marketing of ethanol products increased steadily.

Demand cost impact at both ends, starch and starch sugar and other products under temporary pressure. In the first half of the year, the company's revenue from corn starch, sugars, monosodium glutamate and citric acid products was 19.46,10.78,4.97 and 376 million, which was + 12.8%,-6.2%,-27.0% and-13.8%, of which the gross profit margin of starch and starch sugar was 2.5% and 8.1%. Year-on-year-13.2pct,-5.0 PCT, gross profit-82.3%,-42.0%. As a result of the implementation of the new revenue criteria, performance costs are carried forward to operating cost accounting, resulting in higher costs and a significant decline in gross profit. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for food ingredients and additives recovered slowly in the first half of the year, and the company's revenue from deep-processed products declined.

Persisting in improving quality and increasing efficiency, and the expense rate has maintained a downward trend. In the first half of the year, the rate of sales, management and financial expenses of the company was 1.03%, 2.78% and 0.59%, which was the same as that of 5.33pct,-0.98pct and-0.68pct. In the first half of the year, the company continues to optimize the procurement process and personnel structure, upgrade the process of citric acid, starch and other products, and actively strive for financial discount, the company management expense rate, financial expense rate have declined. The sharp decline in the rate of sales expenses is mainly due to the impact of the adjustment of accounting standards. The company continues to invest in R & D, adhere to quality improvement and efficiency, and has a good customer reputation and foreign trade channels, during which the expense rate has maintained a downward trend.

Investment suggestion: the company is a leading domestic corn processing enterprise with a leading market share of all kinds of products.

With the recovery of oil prices driving up the price of fuel ethanol, the profitability of the company's main products will continue to improve. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2020 to 2022 is 0.42,0.53,0.60 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price on August 31, 2020, the corresponding PE is 24.3,19.2 and 17.1 times respectively, maintaining the "prudent overweight" rating.

Risk tips: oil price fluctuations, raw material price fluctuations, policy changes

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中粮科技(000930)：灵活调整产品结构坚持降本增效 盈利大幅改善

Cofco Science and Technology (000930): flexibly adjust the product structure and persist in reducing costs, increasing efficiency and greatly improving profits.

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中粮科技(000930)：灵活调整产品结构坚持降本增效盈利大幅改善