Event: recently, the Manchu Group, which is mainly engaged in online freight transportation, officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Industry logic: China's logistics cost has trillion-yuan space to improve quality and efficiency, road freight digitization is the trend of the times. (1) Digital supply chain is an ideal vision for logistics industry to improve quality and efficiency.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the logistics cost in China is 14.9 trillion yuan in 2020, accounting for 14.6% of GDP. Compared with the United States, if a series of professional and digital measures are adopted to promote the quality and efficiency of the logistics industry, China's logistics costs will have room for a trillion-level decline. Digital supply chain is considered to be an ideal state for improving quality and efficiency in the logistics industry. The implementation of supply chain management can reduce transportation costs by 5%, 15%, and the operating costs of the entire supply chain by 10%, 15%. (2) Network freight transportation is an important link in the development process of digital supply chain. There are 11.1028 million operating trucks in 2020. according to the data of China Logistics and Purchasing, the combined capacity of the top 10 online freight transport platforms in 2020 has exceeded 8.6 million, and the digitization of road freight transport is the trend of the times.
Company level: Chuanhua Zhaopin is a typical target of A-share network freight, deeply promoting the integration of highway port and network freight business. (1) 63 highway ports have initially completed the national layout. By 2020, the overall rental rate of properties in highways and ports nationwide was 88%; there were 9871 enterprises stationed in highways and ports; the annual vehicle flow reached 41.25 million, an increase of 34% over the same period last year; and the turnover of platforms in the port reached 63.1 billion yuan, an increase of 28.5% over the same period last year. (2) the integration of network freight and carrier platforms, the effective integration of transport resources, and the settlement of drivers' bills has been solved. In 2020, the company's online freight platform business achieved revenue of 6.77 billion yuan, accounting for 31.48% of revenue, gross profit margin of about 2.5%, daily trading volume of more than 20,000 orders, platform operation customers of more than 4000, and cumulative waybill of more than 1.7 million. (3) steadily promote the development of integrated warehouse and allocation business. By 2020, the company had 540 warehouse transportation and distribution service customers, with a total increase of 142 for the whole year; the number of self-owned warehouses nationwide was 48, an increase of 20% over the same period last year; and the annual shipments of self-operated warehouses were 677 million, an increase of 74.5% over the same period last year.
Catalytic factor: the policy encourages the cultivation and growth of logistics new business type. The network freight management method strengthens to promote the intensive integration and efficient use of logistics resources, and makes it clear that the network freight platform can legally issue value-added tax invoices on behalf of drivers, solve the objective needs of road freight, and help the industry to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
Investment suggestion: from 2021 to 2023, the EPS of the forecast company is 0.59,0.68,0.73 yuan respectively, and the PE is 12x, 10x, 9x respectively. For the first time, give a "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: the risk caused by the change of network freight policy and the lower-than-expected demand for road freight.