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医渡科技(2158.HK)2021财年年度业绩点评报告:依托YIDUCORE大数据基建 开启多元化增长

Yidu Technology (2158.HK) FY2021 Annual Performance Review Report: Relying on YIDUCORE Big Data Infrastructure to Start Diversified Growth

光大證券 ·  Jun 29, 2021 00:00

Event: the company released its results for fiscal year 2021, with revenue of 867 million yuan in fiscal year 2021, up 55.4% from the same period last year, mainly due to strong growth in life science solutions and health management platforms and solutions divisions. In terms of profitability, the overall gross profit margin rose 11.5 percentage points to 37.8% in fiscal 2021 compared with the same period last year, with profit margins recorded by all business segments. The net loss in fiscal year 2021 was RMB 3.7 billion. Excluding changes in the fair value of convertible notes, convertible redeemable preferred shares and warrants, the adjusted net loss narrowed to RMB 275 million from RMB 322 million in fiscal year 2020.

Big data platform solutions continue to infiltrate customers and drive steady growth: revenue from big data platform and solutions in fiscal year 2021 is 372 million yuan, up 8.1% from the same period last year. This is mainly due to the increase in the number of active customers from 85 in fiscal year 2020 to 95 in fiscal year 2021, the increase in the overall unit price of customers, and the increase in revenue from overseas markets.

The adjusted gross profit margin (excluding equity incentives) rose 11.7 percentage points year-on-year to 45.11%, mainly due to the transformation of the income structure from lower-margin implementation income to higher-margin solution and service income.

As the company continues to infiltrate head research hospitals, we expect the company to be able to enter 5-10 new hospital customers every year. In addition, the company continues to develop platform-level business cooperation between local governments, driving the increase in the number of customers of regulators and policy makers. We expect revenue from big data's platform and solutions to be about 17% CAGR from fiscal year 2021 to fiscal 2023, maintaining a small double-digit growth.

Life science solutions can effectively solve the pain points of the industry and are expected to continue rapid growth: despite the impact of the epidemic, the clinical trial site management business has been postponed due to the coordination of resources within the hospital. The revenue from life science solutions in fiscal year 2021 was 184 million yuan, up 79.3% from a year earlier, a strong growth, mainly due to the increase in the number of active customers from 74 in fiscal year 2020 to 108 in fiscal year 2021. The average income of active customers increased significantly during the superposition period. The adjusted gross profit margin rose 3.1 percentage points year-on-year to 23.4%. Under the rapid expansion of business and the growth of personnel, the company maintained a steady increase in gross profit margin through improved bargaining power and human efficiency. The company's life science solutions team is able to complete drug lifecycle services such as pre-market clinical trial design and implementation, as well as post-market evidence-based medicine marketing, indication expansion, and adverse reaction research. Benefit from: 1) through the hospital-end YiduCore big data infrastructure to efficiently produce high-quality clinical evidence, as well as the continuous accumulation of disease knowledge graph 2) through the research network built with experts from well-known cooperative hospitals, combined with real-world research, the company's clinical trial solutions can greatly improve the pain points of the industry where innovative drugs take a long time, high cost and low success rate in clinical trials, and the market share is expected to continue to increase. We estimate that revenue from life science solutions from fiscal year 2021 to fiscal year 2023 will be about 104% CAGR.

Health management platforms and solutions cut into the trillion-level chronic disease management market, with broad room for growth: the revenue of health management platforms and solutions in fiscal year 2021 was 55.6 million yuan, a sharp increase of 353.1% over the same period last year. This is mainly due to the increase in revenue from platform-based solutions for enterprises. The adjusted gross profit margin rose 27.1 percentage points year-on-year to 41.3%, mainly driven by high-margin platform solutions. Through the disease model accumulated by YiduCore and AI+ Medicine to build a complete set of chronic disease dose-effect relationship digital therapy to provide personalized, integrated health management solutions, the company has entered the trillion-level chronic disease management market and has broad room for growth. We estimate that revenue from health management platforms and solutions from fiscal year 2021 to fiscal year 2023 will be about 93% CAGR.

Earnings forecast, valuation and rating: according to the company's annual results report for fiscal year 2021, revenue for fiscal year 2021 is RMB 867 million. In view of the fact that the company's business development is in line with expectations, we maintain revenue forecasts of RMB 13.27 / 2.262 billion respectively for 2022 Compact in fiscal year 2023. According to the SOTP valuation method, with reference to the comparable PSG valuation level of each business segment in 2021 (corresponding to fiscal year 2022), maintain the target price of HK $67 and maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: the promotion of medical digitization is not as expected, the competition in the medical digital industry is intensified, and the commercialization of life science solutions and health management platform and solution divisions is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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