The global commercial vehicle video surveillance leader, short-term performance pressure does not change the long-term value company is the global commercial vehicle video surveillance leader, the solution covers all commercial vehicle categories, the market share is the world's leading. Although the company's short-term performance is under pressure under the joint action of factors such as the rise in the price of raw materials, RMB appreciation and production capacity fluctuations, the market demand of the commercial vehicle video surveillance industry continues to improve, and the company has an obvious competitive advantage as a leader in the industry. with the release of short-term unfavorable factors, we are optimistic about the company's long-term growth.
The ceiling of the industry is high, and the space of domestic and overseas markets is opening up.
1) High market ceiling: we estimate that the global commercial vehicle video surveillance steady-state market reaches 97.5 billion yuan, compared with only 10 billion yuan in 2019, the industry ceiling is high, and the industry scale is high driven by policy and technology.
2) in China, we estimate that the implementation of the Road Transport regulations will bring a market of 14.69 billion yuan to heavy freight. If it is calculated according to the promotion time of three years, the market space will be released about 4.9 billion yuan per year. Among them, Guangdong Province will release 600 million yuan of intelligent video surveillance equipment market in 2021. 3) overseas, the company is actively promoting the construction of overseas localization channels. During the 2020 epidemic, the company's overseas revenue maintained a high growth, and the proportion of overseas industrial products increased rapidly.
Explain the company's four competitive advantages in detail:
1) accumulation of scene-based AI technology: active security is an industry trend. The company has on-board video AI technology covering both outside and inside the car. Commercial vehicle solutions need to be applied to realize the integration of AI technology. 2) complete industry solutions: commercial vehicle video surveillance market demand is fragmented and customized, know-how is very important, the company's product line is complete, customized solution capability is the company's important core competitiveness
3) extensive channel layout: commercial vehicle video surveillance industry is mainly installed after loading, system integrators / engineers face end customers directly, and the company has a wide range of domestic and foreign channels. Facing the future, the company has cooperated with the whole car factory and has the advantage of pre-loading and starting first.
4) High-quality and mature application cases: the company has undertaken a number of large-scale projects at home and abroad, and has mature application cases, which can accurately grasp the pain points of users in various commercial vehicle fields, optimize products and promote the landing of solutions in different regions.
Profit forecast and investment advice: taking into account the development prospects of the commercial vehicle video surveillance industry, the company's market position and competitive advantage in the industry, we estimate that the company's net profit for 2021-2023 will be 2.46 trillion yuan, respectively, with a target market capitalization of 11.9 billion yuan and a target price of 69 yuan, with a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hints: market competition aggravates risk; risk of persistent insufficient production capacity; risk of exchange rate fluctuation; risk of sustained price rise of raw materials; market space measurement is subjective and for reference only.