"the main road is invisible, I have style".

This is the screen name of Duan Yongping. Most people's understanding of him generally stays at:

The "behind-the-scenes boss" of Bubugao, OPPO and vivo, the first entrepreneur in China to film Buffett's lunch, and the "mentor" of Pinduoduo founder Huang Zheng.

But his brilliant investment record is rarely mentioned. 20 years ago, 40-year-old Duan Yongping retreated behind the scenes, "main business" to raise children, play golf, and sideline "play investment."

As a result, the "outlier among entrepreneurs" easily achieved more than 100 times the return on investment, including heavy positions of Apple Inc, Maotai, Tencent, NetEase, Inc, Pinduoduo, and so on.

Success once, twice, three times, or even ten times may have an element of luck, but Duan Yongping, who continues to succeed and keeps his failure under control, must have seen and done something right at the level of the "main road."

In the second issue of Business Weather Vane, we systematically reviewed Duan Yongping's sharing on the stock market forum, NetEase, Inc blog and other platforms over the past 20 years, including his long-term and multi-dimensional thinking on enterprise, management, investment, cognition and so on. We have compiled 100 of them into articles, which have not been reviewed by Duan Yongping.

From the main road to Jane, it is not difficult to find that Duan Yongping's thoughts are all straightforward truths, but there is a truth hidden in them that "think carefully and terrify". I hope the "road" realized by Duan Yongping will enlighten you.

About the enterprise

001.

To be an enterprise such as a diver, the less action the better.

002.

An entrepreneur should focus 80% of his energy on 20% of things, and these 20% of things can bring you 80% benefits.

I didn't have a time schedule when I was CEO, but I had a rough idea of what was important.In short, don't let important things become urgent.

003.

Sometimes when someone asks me if I'm interested in a project, I say I'm not interested without even asking.

I know that I and my business only have so little ability and scale that it is impossible to disperse resources. I do not pursue pie in the sky at all.

004.

Matsushita Konosuke saidIt is a sin for an enterprise not to make a profit, but the purpose of an enterprise is not to make a profit.

005.

For a business that is not profitable, it is useless to have a turnover.

Just like unprofitable net worth is sometimes an encumbrance, for example, to build a hotel in an uninhabited place, it costs 100 million yuan, a loss of 5 million yuan a year, and the replacement cost is still 100 million yuan. Who wants to sell it now?

So I coined the term "effective net worth". In other words, net assets that do not generate cash flow actually have no value (and sometimes negative value).

006.

A good business model is simple: profits and net cash flow are always leveraged, and competitors are hard to grab even for a long time.Can you think about whose business is hard to snatch? And then think about why?

007.

The need to use a lot of people (relative to turnover and profits) is a feature of a bad model.

008.

Low price is the easiest road, but also the most difficult road.

It is always wrong to use a price weapon unless you have to. Few people understand that low prices will not expand market share, but forced price cuts will only have a chance to retain market share.

009.

Companies that pursue "value for money" are mostly making excuses for their low prices. Longevity companies probably don't put much emphasis on the concept of "performance-to-price ratio". Ordinary people have a scale in their hearts:Good goods are not cheap.

010.

If you can do one thing well, why do you do so many things that you can't do well?

Like how to change the status of Maotai in the hearts of the Chinese people? Promote more cheap non-53 alcohol, including Maotai beer and red wine, and even Maotai rice wine, as well as Maotai mineral water, Maotai hotel, Moutai mobile phone, Maotai air conditioner, speed up the launch, and forget the five-year rule of leaving the factory. Fake wine. Ten years later, Maotai's status should be completely different.

011.

"time is the friend of an excellent enterprise and the enemy of a mediocre enterprise. "You may think this principle is mundane, but I learned it through profound lessons. -- quote: Buffett

012.

Corporate culture refers to the pursuit of "above profit". There seems to be a slight difference between "above profit" and "beyond profit". "beyond profit" can be understood as different from the pursuit of profit, while the purpose of "above profit" seems to be different.

013.

It is difficult to judge whether a corporate culture is good or not, but it is much easier to see a bad corporate culture.

014.

When I was in the United States, I went to the airport to pick up a colleague who was getting higher and higher. I estimated that I would have to wait at the airport for an hour, so I put a coin for an hour's parking charge in the parking lot. As a result, the colleague came half an hour early.

There is a question: if you invest an extra half an hour, do you want to wait in the car for half an hour or waste the extra half hour? The conclusion goes without saying that in real life, it must be driving away.

But in the actual decision-making, many people make the stupid mistake of waiting: I have invested tens of millions of dollars in this matter, how can I stop? in order to save these sinking costs, I have to keep on doing it, knowing that things are wrong. Naturally, the result is even worse.

On the question of principle, we can not be separated from the attributes of things, right is right, wrong is wrong, and right and wrong should not give way to interests.

015.

I often think of a company from an anthropomorphic point of view:People I don't want to deal with, and I don't want to invest in their company.

016.

I will not touch any company that wants to achieve how much its market capitalization is.

017.

It must be very interesting to ask a consultant to evaluate your company's strategy from the outside. It's hard to understand that when you don't know what strategy to use, others can help, no matter who they are.

Perhaps he can point out his mistakes when onlookers are clear, but it is probably impossible to teach himself what to do.In addition, let the problem find its own problem will probably not find the problem.

018.

If I think a company is dishonest, I won't touch it. There are probably two forbidden areas: bad business model and bad corporate culture.

The most typical feature of a bad corporate culture is that he often tells lies. You only have to look at how many lies he has told before.

019.

Here is a little secret: everything is marked with a real price, not a bargain. Bargaining is actually a very short-sighted and costly behavior for sellers.

High cost refers to inability to authorize and easy to create management loopholes, short-sighted refers to if you can bargain, it is to encourage repeat customers to bargain. For customers, any bargaining will make them feel that they may have lost money, because the customer thinks the price is not enough.

So we stopped bargaining more than 20 years ago. There are too many benefits of non-bargaining. Take your time.

020.

Consumers are a very smart group in the long run. The so-called marketing is just a link for a company, which is equivalent to a board in a barrel.

The idea that the company is good because of good marketing is as ridiculous as thinking that a bucket that can hold water is because of a plank called "marketing".

021.

If internationalization means learning the good things in the world, no problem. If it means desperately doing business in other countries, it is quite dangerous for most Chinese companies.

022.

The advantage of debt is that it can grow faster. The advantage of not being in debt is that you can live longer.Besides, generally speaking, banks lend you money only when they make sure that you don't need it.

023.

Be careful when you expand. I call this one."sufficient minimum speed of development"It means to strike a balance between adequacy and safety. Most people use the so-called maximum speed when expanding, and the last one overturns inadvertently.

For example, if you drive to work, who will say that you should drive faster and kill yourself? is that right? Your family is telling you to drive slowly and pay attention to safety. He is not worried that you will not get to that place.

However, many media, ah, ordinary people, and even many enterprises share this mentality. Everyone encourages them to drive fast, and their propaganda is also fast. It doesn't matter if they bump into each other quickly. How can they do that?

024.

People who do not understand enterprises are very difficult to understand enterprises, just as people who do not understand this sentence are also very difficult to understand this sentence.

About Management

025.

The word "culture" can basically explain the "things" that make things go wrong.

026.

I have always thought that there is something wrong with the management level of the department head who always forces overtime, and the management level of the boss of the company who always forces overtime.

027.

Wolf nature culture will eventually lose to human culture.

028.

The cost of training is expensive, but the cost of non-training is more expensive. Enterprises that do not know the second point will not go far.

029.

Lao Ba (Buffett) quoted Peter Lynch as saying that it is necessary to invest in a business that a fool can manage, because sooner or later there will be a fool to manage. The subtext refers to buying a company with a good business model, but then Ba stressed that even so, he still wants to have a good management.

030.

Logically speaking, two turkeys don't add up to eagles.

031.

The suitability of talents is often more important than qualification.

032.

It is often reported that some people give out how much money to motivate employees, and it is even said that there are people who carry money to the court to supervise the game.

I don't know if there must be brave men under the heavy appreciation, but there is no incentive for employees to rely on more money in the operation of the enterprise.

Money is actually a "health factor", not an "incentive factor". It is something that is useless and useless without it.

For example, if employees are already working very hard, paying more money will not make them work harder, but a small amount of money will not retain people and will be significantly "destructive". Therefore, the amount of distribution actually reflects fairness.

In fact, some of the so-called "red envelopes" given by bosses to employees are also problematic, because employees deserve such "red envelopes".I don't like the feeling of "gift" very much.

I remember when I was a bully in the early days, because there were still few people in the company, many of my colleagues' year-end bonuses were handed out to everyone one by one. Sometimes someone will say, "Thank you, boss", and I will seriously say that the company should thank you for your efforts for a year. This is really impolite.

033.

Entrepreneurs should bear the main responsibility for the failure of an enterprise, and everyone must take credit for the success of an enterprise.

034.

I am an opposition in the company, and I object to almost everything I do.If everyone is not afraid of my objections, I will feel more at ease about what I do. What scares me most is when everyone says "yes" to what the boss says.

035.

Any company where employees are nervous when they see their leaders will go wrong for a long time. Because most of the employees of this kind of company will become unattended, and they want to leave everything to their superiors to decide, the efficiency will gradually decrease.

Unless the company's products are very focused and the big boss can really take care of all the big aspects, something will go wrong sooner or later. I think this is the reason why Japanese companies have problems in some industries in recent years.

036.

When a department in a company emphasizes that its own department is the most important, it is often the weakest department in the company.

037.

I personally understand that there is no absolute fairness-it is that everyone thinks it is fair.

As the maker of the rules of the game, the most important thing is to be fair. Fairness is not equal to equality, nor is it egalitarianism.

038.

The most important thing in delegating power is to tolerate mistakes made in the process of "doing things right".My personal understanding is that I also make mistakes in doing the same thing, why others can't make mistakes.

In some enterprises, if the boss lost money for his own reasons, he will feel normal, but if the losses caused by subordinates, he will often be very distressed.

I am a person who can equate the money lost by others with the money lost by myself, and this tolerance is very important for building a healthy corporate culture.

039.

Only when you have been in a reliable place can you know what is unreliable, and the reverse is not true.

040.

If there are rules in an organization that no one will follow, in the long run, people will be encouraged not to implement the rules they have made, and everyone will be in big trouble in the future-such as the common crossroads where there are no traffic police and traffic lights.

The way to face it is actually very simple.Is to implement your rules or abolish the rules that cannot be enforced, it is best not to have a middle ground, or everyone will be very busy.

041.

It's hard for a good driver to drive a bad car.

About investment

042.

In fact, value investment is the only way to invest, there are no shortcuts, there are no tricks.

If you want to take the easy road, I promise, it is longer and more painful than the hard road.

Many people can make themselves uncomfortable in both a bear market and a bull market.

043.

The belief in investment refers to the belief that in the long run, the stock market is a weighing machine, and for people who have no faith, the stock market will always be a voting machine.

044.

The "worst way to invest" is to talk about value investment and do speculative things.

045.

Speculation is a lot of fun, just like going to a casino once in a while, if you're ready to lose.

046.

I often see people go outside their own circle of ability to do things, looking back to comfort themselves that "expanding the circle of ability" is to pay tuition fees. Most of the people who lose money for a long time in the stock market are people who don't know how big their ability circle is.

047.

In fact, everyone has a speculative heart, so they need to believe. My understanding of faith is to "do the right thing, do the right thing."Or don't do it if you know it's "the wrong thing".

Does anyone still do what they know to be wrong? Just look at how many people around you smoke. People love to do "wrong things" because such things often have short-term temptations.

The most important thing for Buffett to be where he is today is "don't do anything".

048.

I asked Buffett what he can't do in his investment. He told me: don't short, don't borrow money, the most important thing is not to do what you don't understand.The basic principle of investment is that you don't know how to invest.

049.

I have found that people and companies who "do the wrong things" often continue to "do the wrong things" after they are lucky to survive, just like when a liar is caught, they often think that it is not good enough to deceive, and sum up how to improve the deception.

050.

The right thing to do is--When you find something wrong, correct it as soon as possible, no matter how big the price is the minimum price.

051.

Mistakes made in the process of doing the right thing should be strictly distinguished from the consequences of doing the wrong thing.

If you don't understand, please take a look at what those people who have always been smart but always unhappy have been up to these years.

052.

What is the most important thing in investment?Right business,right people,right price(right business model, right corporate culture, reasonable price). That's what Bud said. Price is not that important, business and people are the most important.

053.

The investment I understand can be summed up asTo buy a stock is to buy a company, and to buy a company is to buy a company's future cash flow discounted, full stop!

Discounted cash flow in the future is not a calculation formula, but a way of thinking. Munger said he had never seen Buffett calculate, and I didn't really do it either. It was all a "gross estimate." Just like when Yao Ming stops there, anyone can see that he is heavier than me. Do you have to use the scale to know?

054.

To buy stock is to buy a company, which has nothing to do with whether it is listed or not. You just have to think of the company as a private company without any change in the stock price.

However, most people may not be able to do this. Objectively speaking, if there is no way to invest a company as an unlisted company, most of them will lose money in the end.

When I buy stocks, I always assume that if I have enough money, I will buy the whole company.

055.

There is a saying, "if you don't plan to take a 10-year stock, why do you want to take 10 days?" this sentence does not mean that the stock you buy must take 10 years, but that if you think a company that you think is definitely bad 10 years later, you shouldn't buy it now.

056.

The so-called margin of safety should refer to your understanding of the company, not the price.

The stock is "priced" by each buyer, and you can only buy it when you think it is cheap. in fact, it has nothing to do with the market or others. When you can understand this sentence, your stock career basically has a good chance to continue to make money.

057.

Buying a stock has nothing to do with how much the stock used to be, just as selling the stock has nothing to do with the cost of buying it.

058.

The simplest criterion for understanding a company is that you don't want to ask others, "do I understand this company?"

The real investor is absolutely "defiant", his mind is focused on this enterprise, he does not look around to buy, it is best to hope that others do not buy.

059.

Focus on business, not stock prices.

060.

I remember a reporter asked me why I had the courage to buy NetEase, Inc. I said that for 10 yuan, someone is crying for 1 yuan to sell it to you. What do you need courage for?

This sentence also applies here:When someone wants to sell gold to you at the price of copper, you don't need courage, you just have to make sure it's really gold.

However, it's a little difficult when you don't know what you want to buy, when you look around to see how other people react.

Therefore, what needs courage is speculation, and it does not take courage to invest, that is to say, when you need courage, you are dangerous.

061.

In fact, there is only one real buyer for any stock, and that is the company itself.

062.

No one can change the phenomenon that more than 85% of people in the stock market lose money. If I have to give you any advice, it's best to stay away from the stock market, or at least not lose money. This sentence can help 85% and 90% of the people on the stock market.

But I know that no one will listen to that.Because the problem is that no one knows who the 85% is.

063.

Things that look free tend to be the most expensive, while things that look cheap are often not cheap. This is true of shopping, and it is often the case of investment.

064.

Investment mentality should not have anything to do with size. If you think you're a small investor, you'll probably always be a small investor.

065.

There are a lot of things like investment in golf. For example, the principle of swing is very simple: 1. I just can't learn, but I don't know. 2. Always forget the principles when playing ball; 3. It's hard to stay calm and stick to principles.

066.

I hope you will understand that putting more eggs in a few baskets is actually the best way to effectively increase the risk.Although it is not easy to understand this thing.

067.

A long time ago, someone told me that the stock market was a casino. I said no, but he insisted.

It suddenly dawned on me: for those who say the stock market is a casino, it is a casino.

About cognition

069.

Impatience is a sign of lack of reason.

070.

It is difficult for ordinary people to have an ordinary mind.An ordinary mind is actually an abnormal mind.Because it's not easy to get.

The normal mind is to think about everything back to square one. If you don't care about the nature of things, it's normal to have no normal mind. The reverse is the same, if you are only concerned with the nature of things, the normal mind is naturally there.

071.

Many years ago, Hua Yi and I just played a game of go, and there was one piece that I felt very uncomfortable. When I looked back, I asked him why I didn't feel right.

Then he told me that it was all the same here, because you made a mistake.

072.

The difference between a master and other players lies in the low error rate, not in how many good shots they can play.

073.

Many so-called good people, in fact, just because they have been honestly doing what they have to do, just looking at everything, it is difficult to see how good they are. Awesome is saved.

074.

Knowing and believing in your bones are two different things.

075.

It is not easy to know, but it may be even more difficult to do.

076.

We don't know "we don't know".

077.

Knowing how big your ability circle is is often much more important than how big your ability circle is.

078.

The circle of power is not to draw a circle on the ground with a golden hoop stick, saying that stay inside and don't go out, there are monsters outside.The circle of ability is: be honest with yourself, know what you know, and you don't know what you don't know.

With such an attitude, then if you can understand one thing, it is within my circle of ability, otherwise it will not be.

079.

It's not how bold you are, but not how much you have the ability to do something.

080.

Very few people are willing to reduce complexity to simplicity, and people often think that it is not up to standard, just like buying Maotai, it is meaningless.

Learning to be simple is not easy.I know very little about business, and the difference with many people is that I admit that I know less, so it becomes easier.

081.

Simple and easy are not the same thing. For example, a good golfer practices about 8-10 hours a day, which is simple and boring, but not easy.

082.

Many "smart" people attribute the success of others or their own failure to luck or "accidents", and they are always "smart" to find a way to make themselves think so. Kung Fu Panda 1 says"there are no accidents"Actually, it makes sense.

083.

If you don't think about it all day long, the chances of making mistakes will decline, and accidentally making a surprise will become possible. When I say it's not surprising, I'm not saying that the result is not surprising, but I'm saying that don't think about it all the time.If you keep thinking about the essence, you always have a chance to be surprised.

Anyone who knows how to play golf probably knows that when you want to play far away, you are most likely to make mistakes.

084.

Suddenly thought of a sentence from Lao Ba: if you are in the pit, at least don't dig any further. Just look at how many people are digging holes for themselves.

085.

The courage of reason to face reality sometimes pays off.

086.

If you can think about things a few years back, the difficulty will often be greatly reduced.

087.

The things of "Tao" are really difficult to teach, and we must rely on our own understanding. It is useless for you to say that there is no Tao in your heart.

Most people (often including myself) are not easy to open, it is difficult to accept things that are different from their previous knowledge, even if the other party does well, they always find an excuse for themselves not to learn from him, which is very interesting.

I sometimes feel very strange that if he is already a very successful person, I can understand that he is not very receptive to new things, because others have already had enough successful experience and understanding.

What I see in reality is just the opposite. people who are not open are often those who are less successful.For example, people who have been speculating in stocks for 30 years and do not make money, when I say Lao Bu, people will say …... From Brabra.

088.

Change is not easy, but any time may be a good time.

089.

Giving up is not for gain. I have used the phrase "borrow and repay, it is not difficult to borrow again" to explain the meaning of my duty. Among them, "borrow and repay" is the duty, but "it is not difficult to borrow again" is actually utilitarian.When you stop thinking about "it's not difficult to borrow again", you're really doing your job.

090.

Credibility is not just a talk. Only when you have to pay the price do you know whether you are a man of honor or not. Anyone can "speak" credibility, but when it comes to "keeping" credibility, many people can't.

091.

Kindness is not to put a snake in your arms.The most common expression of kindness is not to do evil.

Generally speaking, the wicked have their own mill, the most important thing is to stay away from them.

092.

I don't think I'm hard on others, but if someone screws up something, I'll tell him to his face. Honesty is my duty. I know what I'm talking about, and it turns out I'm usually right. That's the culture I'm trying to create.

We are brutally honest with each other.Anyone can tell me that they think I'm a piece of shit, and I can say the same about them. We had some heated quarrels and yelled at each other, which was arguably my best time.

093.

The degree of fear is inversely proportional to the degree of understanding.

094.

Speaking of loneliness, it reminds me of when I bought NetEase, Inc, from the beginning to the day when NetEase, Inc fell below 1 yuan "full 3 months", for a total of more than 2 months, half of the daily bill may be mine.

I really felt lonely at that time, especially on the last day, when I bought nearly 500000 shares at once. It is said that the seller on that day was afraid that he would be delisted at the end of three months. The idea of the person who bought it is very simple, thinking that what he bought is a company, and it doesn't matter whether he goes public or not.

Loneliness is indeed priceless sometimes.

095.

The whole sentence of "dare to be the queen of the world" is "dare to fight for the first in the world". You should never go to a place that does not have the ability to fight for the first place.

096.

Do not listen to the old man, bear hardships in front of your eyes and behind your eyes. After reading this sentence, in fact, most people will not listen to it.

It is great to learn from your own mistakes, and it is genius who can learn from the mistakes of others.

097.

A simple idealist can't go far, and a simple realist can't do much.

098.

What's my motivation? I think most creators want to express their gratitude that we can benefit from the achievements of our predecessors. I didn't invent the language or math I used. I didn't make any of my own food, and I didn't make any clothes.

Everything I do depends on the other members of our humanity, as well as their contributions and achievements. Many of us want to give back to society and add to the long river of history.

We can only express it in a way that most people know-because we can't write Bob Dylan's songs or Tom Stoppard's plays.

We try to use our only talent to express our deep feelings, to express our gratitude for all the contributions of our predecessors, and to add something to history. That's what drives me.

099.

As Bob Dylan said, if you are not busy surviving, you are busy begging for death.

100.

I hope you don't hope that someone can make you understand.

What it took me 20 years to understand, if you can take 10 years to figure it out, it's at least much better than me.

Edit / Viola