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英国央行利率决议符合市场预期 缺乏鹰派立场导致英镑下跌

The Bank of England's interest rate decision is in line with market expectations and the lack of a hawkish stance has led to

金十數據 ·  Jun 24, 2021 19:41

Original title: bank of England interest rate decision meets market expectations lack of hawkish stance causes sterling to fall

Source: Jinshi data

At 19:00 this evening, the United Kingdom will announce the central bank's interest rate resolution, policy statement and minutes of the meeting until June 24.

The Bank of England announced a benchmark interest rate of 0.1%, the same as the previous value. The Bank of England kept its total asset purchases unchanged at £895 billion, in line with market expectations.

The market has long expected that the Bank of England will keep its benchmark interest rate at an all-time low of 0.1%. People are more concerned about whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates before the Federal Reserve or in 2022. The market expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates for the first time in early 2023, and the resolution gives a new hint that "premature tightening will hurt the recovery, which is wrong."

This week, the pound rebounded from more than two-month lows against the dollar, rising for three consecutive sessions. After the release of the resolution, the pound fell 50 points against the dollar in the short term, while the FTSE 100 index expanded its gains, up 0.6%.

The data are in line with expectations, but the market doesn't buy it?

Although the BoE's decision was in line with market expectations, the pound plunged 50 points in the short term, and analysts at Forexlive, a financial website, said that overall, the Bank of England had maintained a very stable position, with only Mr Haldane considering scaling back bond purchases. The pound fell because of a lack of hawkish stance. Sterling overnight index futures saw optimism after the Fed's hawkish bitmap, but the Bank of England was cautious.

Is the "inflation tiger" coming? How does the Bank of England respond?

This is the last interest rate resolution meeting attended by outgoing Bank of England Chief Economist Haldane (Andy Haldane). He had previously stressed the UK's inflation problem, saying the "inflation tiger" was coming, but the MPC voted eight to one against it, leaving the total size of asset purchases unchanged at £895 billion. After the resolution, Haldane hopes to continue with the existing UK government bond purchase programme, but reduce the target of these purchases from 875 billion pounds to 825 billion pounds.

Like other central banks, the Bank of England loosened monetary policy at the start of the epidemic last year, cutting interest rates to a record low of 0.1 per cent and resuming quantitative easing.

Over the past few months, the Bank of England has slowed the pace of asset purchases and hinted at further downsizing. The recent economic recovery in the UK is quite obvious, with the monthly rate of GDP showing a large-scale recovery in economic activity after the relaxation of epidemic restrictions. Since its May report, the Bank of England has raised its forecast for UK GDP growth in 2021 by 1.5 percentage points.

UK consumer price inflation exceeded expectations at 2.1 per cent in May, exceeding the 2 per cent target set by the Bank of England for the first time in nearly two years and looks set to continue to climb. The Bank of England expects CPI to be further above target and inflation to temporarily exceed 3 per cent, but it is widely believed that the surge in inflation will be temporary. At the same time, the labour market and other economic indicators show signs of recovery. So far, however, the Bank of England has avoided making any commitment to the timing of the first rate hike, and the resolution meeting did not answer whether it would scale back its asset purchases in the future.

However, the ANZ research team pointed out that the Bank of England could run out of QE by the end of December, ending QE before the Federal Reserve and the ECB.

The improvement of economic data is encouraging, and Delta variants bring uncertainty.

Dutch InternationalSmith (James Smith), developed market economist at Group (ING), said:

"A series of economic data in recent weeks have been encouraging. In fact, the UK economy is doing significantly better than last summer, when restrictions were looser. The Bank of England has become more optimistic about economic growth, and while our current view is that the economic impact may not be significant, the spread of new Delta variants adds additional uncertainty. "

But British Prime Minister Johnson has a different view of the epidemic, saying that doubling the vaccine supply will bring hope to travel this summer.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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