What is the overall TWS headphone market now? The share of brand TWS headphones gradually grabs the share of white-brand TWS headphones. 1) the degree of branding has increased significantly. The market share of Android-branded TWS headphones is about 8% in 2019, and the market share of Android-branded TWS headphones has reached nearly 25% by the end of 2020. 2) the sales of walkers are expected to grow by more than 50%, while the sales share of brands such as walkers' TWS headphones has increased significantly, while more Android brands have gradually entered the TWS track.
What is the change in the product structure of walker? Expected difference one: active noise reduction ANC headphones have become the main force, product structure changes to improve gross profit margin. 1) the sales of active noise reduction ANC headphones are basically the same as those of non-noise reduction headphones, and the best selling of active noise reduction ANC headphones will further increase the company's gross profit margin; 2) if the penetration rate of ANC products is further increased, it is expected to increase the company's gross profit margin by 9%.
How about the expansion of the rover channel? Expected gap 2: decentralized channel structure, reducing dependence on platform e-commerce also helps to improve gross profit margin. 1) Walker multi-platform expansion, Pinduoduo, Douyin Kuaishou Technology, layout private domain omni-channel marketing; 2) if the company's channels continue to be improved and optimized, and assuming that BABA and JD.com 's external platform accounts for 20% of sales, we expect the overall gross profit margin to increase by about 1 percentage point.
Why can the walker succeed? Strategic vision, execution, R & D priority and began to take the high-end route. 1) the company is the only traditional audio manufacturer to successfully transform, with strong strategic decision-making and execution ability, and stands out in the fierce brand competition by relying on the Chinese industry chain and engineer dividend. 2) the martial arts in the world can only be fast and unbroken: for example, the lollipods Pro with a price range of about 400 yuan is launched to take the lead in promoting the product structure transformation from non-noise reduction headphones to active noise reduction headphones. 3) actively or even aggressively pursue technological foresight: for example, DreamPods was launched before June 18 last year and Apple Inc also uses ST STS semiconductors, which has achieved complete environmental noise reduction. It is the first headset in China that uses the same bone conduction noise reduction scheme as Airpods2, leading big-name competitors. 4) products are becoming more and more high-end: for example, recently, walkers have launched NeoBuds Pro ring iron noise reduction headphones, fully calibrate airpods pro, and achieve better timbre and sound quality in electronic frequency division and other technical aspects, so as to enhance product strength and brand strength.
Investment advice: we expect the company's 21-23 net profit to be 3.73,5.31 and 659 million yuan, and EPS to be 0.42,0.60,0.74 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips: new product promotion is not as expected, upstream raw material prices change, potential competitors enter.