Global macro

• Morgan Stanley: there is still a lot of downside for commodities.
  

Morgan Stanley said that in a six-month time dimension, the Fed's hawkish tendencies and China's efforts to rein in commodity prices had brought base metal prices down to more sustainable levels, but the bank expected more downside for commodities. Morgan Stanley analyst Susan Bates and others wrote in the third quarter outlook report that the supply recovery is expected to meet the normal level of demand by 2022, and most markets will decline.

• Bubble expert Grantham warns that major assets are overvalued and that the traditional 60-pound 40 portfolio is dangerous.

Jeremy Grantham, a financial historian and co-founder of GMO, an investment firm, said investors were witnessing "the biggest fantasy trip ever for US stocks", boosted by Fed policy, rapid stimulus action and the unexpected success of COVID-19 's vaccination. Grantham said all major asset classes were overpriced, citing James Grant calculations that interest rates were at a 4,000-year low, while Grantham called the traditional 60-plus 40 portfolio allocation "particularly dangerous".

• Legendary investors warn: the 11-year bull market in US stocks is coming to an end, and the market crash is coming.

Jeremy Grantham, a value investment guru and co-founder of asset manager GMO, believes that the trend of US stocks over the past 12 months symbolizes the end of the 11-year bull market, and signs of bubbles are everywhere. He said the Nasdaq index may have peaked in February. Grantham believes that market adjustment will be painful and ugly. As long as asset prices fall to half their historical levels, they will trigger a "big bear market".

• Us stock index futures rose slightly before trading.

• The layout of global asset management giants in China has been exposed! Increase the proportion of investment in new energy

Global asset management giant Blackrock held a mid-term strategy meeting today. Blackrock believes that China is currently focusing on self-reliance and supporting the development of future-related industries, and these new governance priorities are supporting the creation of long-term investment trends. Investment in sustainable development, especially those related to new energy, is on the rise, which is expected to bring good investment opportunities. The positions of individual semiconductor and memory suppliers have been reduced, mainly based on an analysis of the shift in the mode of competition in the relevant markets, and valuations of these shares have now begun to exceed reasonable levels of their fundamentals after a previous surge.

• S&P Global Inc. rating: the demand for power batteries of light electric vehicles is expected to increase eight times in 2025 compared with last year.

S&P Global Inc. rating released a report that governments see electric vehicles as the key to reducing carbon, pushing up sales of electric vehicle power battery manufacturers. By 2025, the demand for power batteries for light electric vehicles (including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles) is likely to increase as much as eightfold from 139 gigawatt hours in 2020. Many countries are encouraging battery production to promote the development of the local electric vehicle industry.

• European stock markets fell more and rose less.

Hot news

• XPeng Inc. 's listing hearing through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Hong Kong stocks ushered in the "first share of smart electric vehicles"
  

It is reported that$XPeng Inc. (XPEV.US) $It has officially passed the listing hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange a few days ago, sprinting towards the "first share of smart electric vehicles" of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Unlike other Hong Kong stock "secondary listing" Chinese stocks that cannot be accessed through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, XPeng Inc. 's Hong Kong stock IPO will return to Hong Kong stocks in the form of "dual major listing", which can meet the access conditions of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and facilitate A-share investors to make active stock transactions with the help of Hong Kong Stock Connect.

• Morgan Stanley: downgrade Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd to "neutral", and his stock will be "like dead money" in the future.

In the past two years, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's leading position in the advanced process has almost reached a market consensus, but recently Morgan Stanley has fired the first shot of downgrading. Morgan Stanley issued a research report and revised it.$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM.US) $Rated to "neutral" and lowered the target price from T $655 to T $580. At present, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is generally rated as "overweight" shares by foreign banks, and the consensus average is NT $749, but Morgan Stanley believes that his shares will be "like dead money" in the next 12 to 18 months.

• IDC: Baidu, Inc. Intelligent Cloud AI Cloud market share for the fourth time in a row

Today, consulting firm IDC released a report on China's AI cloud service market, which shows that in China's AI public cloud service market,$Baidu, Inc. (BIDU.US) $Smart cloud ranks first in market share. This is also the fourth time that Baidu, Inc. Intelligent Cloud has won the championship since IDC released the China AICloud market report.

• Tesla, Inc. recalled part of Model 3 in China, saying it had nothing to do with brake failure.

American electric vehicle manufacturer$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $It was recently announced that the company has filed with Chinese regulators that it will recall some imported Model 3 models in China. According to a statement obtained by the company, Tesla, Inc. said the recall had nothing to do with brake failure. "there has never been any brake failure," the new media reported, citing Reuters. Nor have we received any cases of collisions or injuries caused by the situation. "in addition, Model 3 and Model Y made in China do not have such problems.

• Ford CEO challenged Tesla, Inc.: dare you have an acceleration race?

$Ford Motor (F.US) $CEO Jim Farley recently said on social media that the Ford Mustang Mach-E$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $The recently launched Model S Plaid is a good idea to have a straight-line acceleration race. The Tesla, Inc. Model S Plaid claims to be the fastest production car ever, with a maximum horsepower of 1020 horsepower, a top speed of 200mph and an acceleration of 1.99s from 0 to 60 miles. By contrast, the Mustang Mach-E 1400 has a maximum horsepower of 1400 horsepower and a top speed of 160mph, thanks to its seven engines and ultra-high-performance batteries.

• The pace of mass production of the new iPhone is approaching, and the momentum of stock may exceed that of the same period last year.

$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $The new iPhone is in full swing towards mass production, and the front-end stock has been fully opened. According to reports, industry insiders expect Apple Inc to launch four new iPhone models in September. There is no shortage of spare parts for the new machine. Mass production is estimated at the end of August and early September at the earliest. The stock volume of the new machine in the second half of the year is estimated to be 85 million to 90 million units, which is expected to exceed the stock level of the same period in 2019 and 2020.

• Sources say that Apple Inc's next generation of iPhone is expected to add off-screen fingerprints to unlock for the first time

The next generation$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $The iPhone phone will be released in September, or named iPhone13 or iPhone 12s. According to foreign media, iPhone13 Pro screens and cameras will be upgraded, and it is expected to add off-screen fingerprint unlocking technology for the first time.

• EU investigation into Alphabet Inc-CL C's advertising technology will go straight to the core of the business model

The European Commission said that with$Alphabet Inc-CL C (GOOG.US) $The new confrontation will focus on the possibility that the company may illegally favour its own online display advertising technology, thereby crowding out competitors. "this may be the investigation that many people are waiting for because it will reach the core of Alphabet Inc-CL C's business," said Aitor Ortiz, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. The biggest risk is to require Alphabet Inc-CL C to separate or limit his online advertising business, which "could have a significant impact on revenue generated through online advertising." This will be the first time that the EU has directly inspected the black boxes of online advertising.

• Wedbush: raise Microsoft Corp's target price to US $325, optimistic about Azure cloud-driven company's performance growth

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives will$Microsoft Corp (MSFT.US) $Raised its target price to $325 from $310 and maintained its "outperform" rating on the stock. Ives said that the growth of Azure Cloud has driven Microsoft Corp's performance into the next round of growth, and the digital transformation of companies is accelerating, with CIOs focusing on preparing a cloud-driven architecture for their respective companies to stimulate the continued expansion of deals. As a result, Wedbush raised its target price again.

• Intel Corp announced the establishment of two new departments to focus on software, high-performance computing and graphics business

$Intel Corp (INTC.US) $It has been announced that two new business units will be set up internally, one focusing on software and the other on high-performance computing and graphics. According to the official website, Greg Lavender and Raja Koduri will respectively serve as the heads of the two departments, reporting directly to Intel Corp CEO Pat Kissinger.

• Buffett will hand out $4.1 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares

According to market news, Buffett will hand out $4.1 billion worth of$Berkshire-Class A (BRK.A.US) $Buffett currently owns 238624 Berkshire Hathaway shares, worth about $100 billion. Buffett pointed out that the promise to distribute all Berkshire Hathaway shares is slowly being realized, and that tax breaks are important to many people.