Summary of the report:
For the tail gas treatment enterprises with significant technological advantages, the country six products are supplied in batches.
Aikelan is a scientific and innovative enterprise founded by the returnee doctorate team, which is mainly engaged in the research, development, production and sales of engine exhaust aftertreatment products and atmosphere-related products. Through independent research and development, the company has accumulated a number of core technologies, forming 12 core technologies based on four core technologies: catalyst formulation and coating technology, electronic control technology, matching and calibration technology, and system integration technology. among them, 6 core technologies are original innovation. Up to now, the company has 135 authorized patents, including 11 invention patents and 10 software copyrights. At the same time, we have mastered more than 40 kinds of catalyst formulation technology (technical secret) which can be used in motor vehicles, off-road mobile machinery and industrial waste gas treatment. The company has achieved batch supply in the field of No. 6 gasoline engine and No. 6 diesel engine, and the related technical level is at the forefront of the industry.
The size of China's six-stage tail gas post-treatment market has doubled to 100 billion, and domestic investment welcomes a good opportunity to replace it.
The "National 6" emission standard was gradually implemented from 2019 to 2023, ranking first in the world in terms of strictness and technical difficulty. The national 6 emission limits for diesel light vehicles NOx and PM are 460 and 10 mg / kg respectively, which is 77.0% and 66.7% lower than that of National 5, while the limit for PN is increased (6.0x1011 / km). The limits of nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PN), carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbon (HC) of national 6b standard for heavy diesel vehicles decreased by 42%, 33%, 50% and 50% respectively compared with China five, which were 35, 3, 50 and 50 mg/kWh, respectively. Due to the improvement of standards, bring about changes in the process of exhaust aftertreatment system, diesel vehicle aftertreatment technology route from SCR or DOC+DPF to all need SCR+DOC+DPF+ASC route, treatment difficulty, process increase, bring post-treatment market scale significantly enlarged, it is estimated that the unit price of light diesel vehicle exhaust aftertreatment products is about 7000-9000 yuan; heavy diesel engine domestic brand unit price is about 12000-15000 yuan, double the growth than the national five. We estimate that in the sixth stage, the broad market space of the sixth national exhaust post-treatment system is at the level of hundreds of billions of dollars, which is significantly larger than that of national fifth.
In the sixth stage of China, due to the substantial increase in the price of a single set of exhaust gas post-treatment system, the technological progress of domestic enterprises, the advantages of services and other factors, domestic diesel engine aftertreatment manufacturers ushered in a good opportunity of import substitution, and the market share is expected to further increase.
The company is in a triple growth channel with the increase of industry scale, the expansion of sales volume and the increase of market share.
China's five-stage company mainly focuses on the accumulation of technology and brand, which has not only gained a good reputation, but also accumulated many high-quality customer resources, such as Quan Chai, Yunnei, Futian and so on, accounting for about 13% of the market share of light truck diesel engines (first made in China). The company has accumulated technology and made breakthroughs in the field of heavy truck diesel engines and gasoline engines, and made great progress in the development of new customers. At present, it has formed a large-scale and small-batch supply of gasoline engines and diesel engines in the sixth grade of the country. With the implementation of the sixth National Committee, in the next 3 to 5 years, the company will be in the triple growth channel of expanding its business from light trucks to heavy trucks and gasoline engines, doubling the overall size of the industry and increasing the company's market share.
Profit forecast and investment advice:
It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 177 million yuan, 273 million yuan and 367 million yuan respectively, and the EPS is 2.21,3.41,4.59 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 35 times, 22 times and 17 times respectively. The company has significant technological advantages, the industry ushered in an explosive period, optimistic about the company's long-term growth, given the "buy" investment rating.
Risk Tips:
1. The risk that the market expansion of the company's sixth grade products is not as expected.
two。 The risk that commercial vehicle sales fall short of expectations.