China's economic recovery has been the fastest among major economies since the outbreak, but the rise in debt ratio has been the least among major economies. This is mainly due to the dividend brought by the effective control of the epidemic. Large-scale tracking, testing and isolation have formed a set of effective means, which are difficult to copy in foreign countries. Then under the premise of macro-stability, what are the micro risks in the capital market?

At the investment strategy conference held by Fortune Elephant Wealth on June 8th, it was a special honor to invite Mr. Song Yu, Chief China Economist of Blackrock, to share with us how to better insight and monitor these micro risks.

Under the premise of macro stability, what are the micro risks in the capital market?

The more stable the macro is, the greater the micro risk may be.

Song Yu: as mentioned just now, our overall view of the macro is relatively optimistic. But this does not necessarily mean that investors have no choice but to buy everything when buying Chinese assets. After all, there are still some micro risks. And there is a relationship between this micro risk and macro stability, just like a seesaw. The more stable the macro is, the greater the micro risk may be.

Imagine that in the financial industry, when the COVID-19 crisis was relatively serious last year, many people in the financial industry were worried about whether COVID-19 would lose his job when he came. Because many people are worried, many companies in the financial industry have announced that employees can rest assured that they will not fire some employees because of COVID-19. As a matter of fact, under normal circumstances, many people in the financial industry would normally leave their jobs or be eliminated. As a result, last year, because people were very concerned, many companies issued a policy that they would not eliminate their employees. By this year, the economy and the market have returned to normal, and the company has returned to normal at this time, so whether to fire or fire, because not so many people are worried about job instability. This is my own observation of the financial industry.

Policy may bring micro-risk

Song Yu: well, from the national level, when the economy was relatively bad last year, such as the bankruptcy or restructuring of some large enterprises, should we push it at that time? This has become a very realistic problem, he may be pushed, for example, the enterprise is not profitable, ah, there is no hope of profit, there are a lot of debts and a lot of problems. It is supposed to be restructured and bankrupt, but in times of crisis, it is necessary to reorganize and go bankrupt, which may undermine the confidence of the market and more people will lose their jobs. Because the unemployment rate has indeed risen at that time, everyone's profit level and other aspects are already very bad. If restructuring is carried out at this time, market confidence is again unstable, and a vicious circle may be created. This concern may have made such structural reforms slow at that time.

With the continuous recovery of the economy, we feel more confident when we return to the second half of last year, especially this year, and there is no big problem with the economy. This year's economic growth rate is certainly very fast, this year is considered to be a very good period, a window to implement a lot of policies. These policies are generally called micro-risks. This includes the reorganization of some zombie enterprises and anti-monopoly policies, which in fact have an objective impact on the operation of some enterprises.

For these micro risks, how to better insight and monitoring?

The introduction of the policy is based on the macro background and the investment choice to avoid micro risks.

Song Yu: another is that for some industries, such as the real estate industry, it recovers along with the economy. However, if house prices rise too fast, the more stable the economy is, the more likely it is that the government will introduce measures to curb the rise in house prices. Because I have confidence in my heart, I am willing to introduce such measures. Therefore, recently, some relevant policies have been introduced a lot, and I think there is some such macro background. This means that when making investment, the choice is higher, generally optimistic, but there is still some choice to avoid micro-risks. Of course, it is also possible that some risks have been reflected in the market, which requires investors to judge whether the price has fully reflected these micro risks.