By the end of 2020, brother Kun's five funds had been bought out by the base people, with a total size of 125.5 billion, becoming the first public offering fund manager to exceed 100 billion in 23 years. Brother Kun is the pinnacle of God than the phrase "Kun Kun flies bravely and ikun will always be with you" at the beginning of this year.

These young people do not know that the god of the stock market is very fragile.

1 Waterloo

If the market looks at the index this year, it is neither good nor bad. Most of the big fluctuations of the 218 crash have been recovered, and the index trend is OK, very good slow bull trend. Only those involved know that it is difficult to invest in the slow bull market, because behind the index is the interweaving of mad cow and big bear.

The Ki-min who voted for Brother Kun obviously did not have the good luck of last year.

After the 218 crash, the heavy stocks in the four major funds at the helm of Brother Kun (Yi Fangda Xin Silk Road stepped down a year ago) were severely hit and pulled back hugely. Among them, the blue-chip selection and small and medium-sized stocks of Yifangda have all plummeted by more than 20%, and the holdings of high-quality enterprises have dropped by more than 15% in three years.

Later, with the strong rebound of the market, the three funds counterattacked, but the latest net worth of small and medium-sized stocks still fell 17.9% from the high. This means that the base people who pursued high a few years ago, even if they have been holding it and pretending to be dead, have not released the trap so far.

The saddest of these is Yi Fangda Asia Select, which has rebounded slightly since the 218 crash, continuing to fall, all the way south, and has withdrawn 28.5% from its high point. This achievement is terrible, from the last week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months dimension, is the same kind of more than 300 funds ranked bottom, and even the last.

In fact, the performance of this fund has been very poor, but brother Kun's dazzling performance of other funds has masked this point. Stretch the time dimension, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, it is in the same kind of fund ranking is very general. The fund was taken over by Zhang Kun on April 8, 2014, and if calculated from that time, the fund has risen 68 per cent, with an annual compound return of only 7.6 per cent.

In the past seven years from 2014 to now, the time dimension has been long enough, but the 7.6% annualized return does not seem to match the resounding "public offering number one" honor in China's public offering community.

However, because of brother Kun, the share of the fund rose by 1.3 billion shares in the first quarter of this year, a significant increase from the 700 million shares at the end of Q4 in 2020, and the size of the fund also exceeded 3 billion yuan. Of course, if you look at the net worth chart, these brave bottom hunters have been buried alive. (blue line below)

It is difficult to destroy God, but it is easy to destroy God. Will the legend of Brother Kun continue?

2 legends and myths

On September 28, 2012, Brother Kun took over the trusteeship of small and medium-sized funds from he Yunfeng and officially started his career as a public offering fund.

Before the first quarter of 2013, there were no spirits stocks in the top 10 small and medium-sized stocks. But since the second quarter of that year, Zhang Kun has decisively taken possession of Guizhou Moutai, making it the second largest stock after Huaxia Happiness, accounting for 10.56% of the total position of the fund.

2013 is the year of disaster for the liquor industry. After brother Kun made a heavy position in Maotai in the second quarter, Maotai's share price did not rise, but on the contrary, it continued to fall by nearly 40%. The investment always has to fight against the market, and Brother Kun chose to continue to buy Maotai with a large amount of money.

From the current point of view, this is undoubtedly a very successful investment, Maotai at that time, how can people now think that the valuation is only 10 times, but also once fell below 10 times.

But at the time, it was not a big investment compared with the market as a whole. After bottoming out in 2014, Maotai began to rise slowly, barely keeping up with the pace of the market.

At that time, financial stocks exploded, small and medium-sized votes danced wildly, and there were too many stocks that rose several times or even dozens of times in just over a year. On the other hand, the big Maotai was well-behaved, buried in the big waves and inconspicuous.

So at that time, brother Kun took the helm of the small-cap fund for the first three years (2013-2015), the income ranking has always been in the lower-middle, never entered the TOP20. At that time, Brother Kun was a very ordinary one among thousands of fund managers. The performance is mediocre, and it is also badly spurred by the base people who hold it.

I think the first thing I want to thank for Brother Kun's Shi Lai Yun Zhun (Lucky Dumplings) is the northbound fund. Northbound funds continue to flow into A-shares, and the final quantitative change produces qualitative changes, which greatly changes the valuation ecology of A-shares. Since then, the style of the A-share market has changed greatly. Slowly, Hengzi Hengqiang's strategy of selecting the leader is more and more recognized by the market. Liquor, as a high-quality track, took off after the storm in 2013.

Brother Kun also bet on Maotai from the beginning, constantly tossing and turning in the liquor industry, and later made a lot of money from a number of excellent liquor enterprises, such as Wuliangye, Luzhou laojiao, Yanghe shares and so on. In particular, the three Mao Wuyi, small and medium-sized funds have long accounted for more than 25% of the share, and are jokingly called by investors as one of the three world-famous wineries.

Brother Kun absolutely has a heavy position and has been in possession of liquor for a long time, which makes him a lot of money. Since taking over small and medium-sized enterprises in September 2012, the cumulative increase has been as high as 710%, and the annual compound return is as high as 27.5%. Of course, in the bull market in the past two years, small and medium-sized stocks have soared by 200%, contributing to a big increase in the market in the last nine years.

It is the ultra-high rate of return in the past two years that has attracted a large number of fans to follow suit to buy the fund entrusted by Brother Kun. The size of small and medium-sized enterprises was only 8.5 billion yuan at the end of 2018, rising rapidly to 18.6 billion yuan in 2019 and 40.1 billion yuan in 2020, a sharp increase of 372% compared with the end of 2018, which is very exaggerated.

And Brother Kun is consistent, and these new funds continue to invest in spirits, eating wave after wave of dividends from leading spirits (especially Maotai). Dong Secret of Maotai has revealed that there are less than 10 fund managers who can hold Maotai for more than five years, and Brother Kun is one of them.

From 2013 to now, Brother Kun entered Maotai at the most difficult time, accompanied Maotai through several ups and downs, and finally the spirit lived up to Brother Kun, creating Brother Kun's investment myth.

However, throughout the stock market, there has never been a trick forever.

3 not optimistic

The stock market is a magical place, the more the future returns are very low, the more the bull market is in full swing. Just as Brother Kun was exalted to the throne at the beginning of the year, the rice circle has all come:

As long as brother Kun manages the fund, regardless of location, buy, buy, because he is my idol, can help me make money, this is the simple idea of many people. However, can Zhang Kun really continue to earn enough surprising returns in the future?

At present, the overall valuation of Zhong Zheng Liquor has soared nearly 60 times, at an all-time high. Such a high valuation level, from the perspective of 2-3 years, is very easy to see, that is, at this level, please be prepared not to make money in the next 2-3 years.

So, next, the main force of the fund entrusted by brother Kun-- blue chip selection, small and medium-sized stocks, if they continue to have a heavy position in liquor, not a large-scale stock exchange, the performance may be mediocre in the next 2-3 years.

Of course, Brother Kun is also aware of this, and several funds have greatly reduced their liquor positions and increased the allocation of banking, pharmaceutical, Internet and other industries.

Zhang Kun's strategy of adjusting the positions of four funds

In the first quarter of this year, Yi Fangda blue chip selected large purchases of China Merchants Bank, A shares bought 113 million shares, H shares bought 50 million shares, a total position market value as high as 8.28 billion yuan, accounting for 9.41% of the position, the fund's sixth largest position. In addition, Ping an Bank was bought, accounting for 3.25%. Judging from the performance of China Merchants Bank this year, this is a successful choice.

But brother Kun's other options are indescribable.

In addition to the bank, Brother Kun also set his sights on the big pharmaceutical industry, but it was not a bad start. As of the latest data, small and medium-sized stocks hold about 2.9 billion yuan, accounting for 9.2% of the total position, ranking first among all heavy stocks. Zhang Kun bought Mainian Health on a large scale in the third quarter of last year, increased the total position by 5.7% in the single quarter, and increased the position again in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of this year. In the last four months, Mainian's share price has plummeted from 20 yuan to the current 9 yuan, a drop of more than 52%. Judging from the time when Zhang Kun increased his position, he suffered a serious loss.

In addition to Mainian Health, Zhongju Hi-Tech, one of the top ten positions in small and medium-sized stocks, is also experiencing a double kill of valuation and fundamentals. Brother Kun's three funds hold a total of 9.29% of Zhongju Hi-Tech, which is a very high proportion of shares. From the point of view of the time of purchase, it seems that Brother Kun wants to replicate Maotai in 2013, fight the market again, and keep increasing his position. But will there be a miracle this time? After all, even if the torch has fallen so much, it still has a valuation of 40 times, which is not comparable to that of Maotai, which was 10 times that year.

In addition, Yi Fangda Asia selected stepped on the two education stocks of the big thunder-New Oriental Education & Technology Group good future. The target of the fund is no spirits, and the industries covered are mainly the Internet, e-commerce and education. Unfortunately, the return on long-term shareholding is too low, and the performance rankings over the past three years have been very mediocre. Especially in the last six months, it directly ranks the bottom of the peer group.

In the past, Brother Kun's main abilities focused on liquor, not on medicine, the Internet and e-commerce.

As you can see, Brother Kun wanted to make a circle of liquor, but it didn't go well. Of course, maybe this time Brother Kun can fight the market like investing in spirits in 2013, and there will be a return in the end.

It's just this ordeal. I don't know if the base people who shouted "Kunkun bravely fly" at the beginning of the year are ready.

4 endings

This year's A shares, from the index point of view, the performance is still reluctantly, 218 crash, but also recovered more than half of the lost ground, the trend can, indeed out of the feeling of slow cattle.

However, no one tells us the truth is that the index slow bull is actually very difficult to invest, because the market is very divided. There is a big bull market on this side and a sense of intuition on the other side of the stock market crash.

Personally, this situation will be the norm. Because, our economy itself has industrial prosperity, industrial decline, corporate prosperity, corporate decline, some industries are in a pro-cycle, some industries are in a counter-cycle, general rise is extravagant hope, differentiation is the norm.

This situation, whether for individual investors or fund managers, is actually very difficult, and there are a few people who can flexibly switch between different industries. White spirit has made Brother Kun, but it is very difficult to say whether Brother Kun can continue the legend. At least for now, Brother Kun's people are going to suffer.

Buffett once advised his wife: when he dies, be sure to buy an index fund and don't listen to others.

This method looks stupid, but rips off the glamour of star fund managers. How many Chinese public fund managers have outperformed the CSI 300 over the years?

For Ki-min, if you don't want to do your own research, it may be a better choice to buy an index fund. If you must buy an active fund, you should be wary of the funds with high valuations.