According to Canalys's latest forecast, the global smartphone market will grow by 12% in 2021, with shipments of 1.4 billion units, Zhitong Financial APP has learned. That means shipments have recovered strongly compared with 2020, with smartphone shipments falling by 7 per cent last year as the COVID-19 epidemic severely hampered the market. With the continued promotion of COVID-19 vaccine around the world and the weakening of the COVID-19 epidemic, the supply of spare parts will become a new bottleneck in the smartphone industry.

"the smartphone industry is incredibly adaptable," said Ben Stanton, research manager at Canalys. Smartphones are essential for people to keep in touch and enjoy entertainment, and they are as important at home as they are outside. In some parts of the world, consumers have been unable to take holidays and go out to spend in recent months, and many have switched their disposable income to new smartphones. The development of 5G mobile phones is strong, accounting for 37 per cent of global shipments in the first quarter and is expected to account for 43 per cent (610 million units) of shipments for the whole year. This will lead to fierce price competition among manufacturers, with many sacrificing other hardware features, such as screens or power supplies, to put 5G into the cheapest phones. By the end of this year, 32% of all 5G phones shipped will cost less than $300. Now is the time to adopt 5G phones on a large scale. "

However, parts supply bottlenecks will limit the growth potential of smartphone shipments this year. "the problem of late delivery is becoming more and more serious," Stanton said. The whole industry is competing for semiconductors, and all brands will feel the pressure. " In recent months, as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak in India, manufacturers have redeployed some of their supplies to other regions, but as the world gradually returns to normal, this practice is unsustainable. Manufacturers will first prioritize regions, giving priority to supply to lucrative developed markets such as China, the US and Western Europe, and then to markets such as Latin America and Africa. But even in these areas where the supply is smoother, manufacturers will still be restricted, and then they will prioritize each channel and deploy more supplies to fast-activating channels (such as operators). Deploy less supply to distribution and the open market. This will have a noteworthy impact and is expected to provide opportunities for emerging brands to challenge established manufacturers; if established manufacturers are unable to meet demand, cutting-edge manufacturers will be able to gain share in key open market channels.

Nicole Peng, vice president of mobile business at Canalys, said: "pricing is another factor affecting shipments. As the prices of key components such as chipsets and memory rise, smartphone makers have to decide whether to bear the cost themselves or pass it on to consumers. " However, due to the serious constraints of LTE chipsets, this will pose challenges at the low end of the market, where customers are particularly sensitive to price. Smartphone makers must focus on improving operational efficiency while lowering the profit margin expectations of their low-end product portfolios during supply constraints, or they risk losing market share to competitors.