share_log

交易高手与常人的区别:大局观与细节观

The difference between expert traders and ordinary people: big picture view and detail view

金十數據 ·  Jun 19, 2021 00:26

01.pngNiuniu knocked on the blackboard:

Overall vision, that is, the trader's overall judgment of the macro and micro position of the market, the long-term and short-term trend of the market, and the detail view, that is, the trader's ability to actually deal with all kinds of new situations and challenges faced by the trading position.

Successful trading is inseparable from the integration of macro and micro judgment, as well as the unity of knowledge and action.

The ability and accuracy of trading experts to judge the overall situation and details of the market is far from comparable to that of ordinary people. Before trading, he will focus on the following aspects of the market and give a clear answer:

  • Is the current market environment suitable for operation? Is there a trend in the market? If there is no trend, what kind of shape is the market likely to be building? Is it the bottom reversal form, the top reversal form, the trend relay form or temporarily disoriented remains to be seen? Where is the important level of support or barrier?

  • If there is a trend, what level of trend is it? Bull market or bear market? The early, middle or late stages of a bull or bear market? If it is a secondary reversal trend, which position has it retracted to the trend length of the front wheel? 33%, 50% or 66%? What is the status of the daily, weekly and monthly charts? What is the relationship between the long-term, medium-term and short-term trend direction of the market?

  • Are there any iconic K-line, resonance, anti-vibration and overshoot signals on the daily, weekly and monthly charts? If so, what level of market does it indicate? Are there any important technical phenomena such as gap, one-day / week / month reversal, overrise, overfall and so on?

  • Is the market in a state of regular advance or extreme? Does the trading volume (position) verify the price change?

This is overall vision, that is, the overall judgment of traders on the macro and micro position of the market and the long-term and short-term trend of the market. From this judgment, traders draw the conclusion that the market is bullish or bearish in the long and short term, and operate accordingly.

Usually, trading experts enter the market only when the long-term and short-term markets are moving in the same direction. If the long-term and short-term direction of the market is not the same, he either does not trade or engages in short-term trading. Before actually entering the arena, he will also figure out the following questions:

  • What is the maximum likely evolution of the market in the coming week to January?

  • If you decide to wait and see, how long will it take to wait and see? If you decide to enter the market, how much position do you hold, long or short?

  • At what point does the entrance take place? Where is the profit target?

  • What kind of trading orders are used to enter the market? Where is the protective stop order placed?

  • How much risk am I going to take if my judgment is wrong?

This is the detail view, that is, the ability of traders to actually deal with the new situations and challenges that trading positions are constantly facing. Overall vision belongs to the category of trading technology, and the concept of details belongs to the category of trading strategy. Overall vision focuses on "knowledge", while the concept of details focuses on "action". Successful trading is inseparable from the integration of macro and micro judgment, as well as the unity of knowledge and action.

We call traders' views on the overall pattern and long-term trend of the market as macro judgment, and their views on the local position and short-term trend of the market as micro judgment, both of which are called overall vision.

From the perspective of actual combat needs, the two should not be neglected, otherwise neither of them can be regarded as a good overall vision.

Generally speaking, non-margin trading depends more on correct macro judgment, while margin trading depends more on correct micro judgment.

Traders who are longer than micro and shorter than macro can protect themselves and earn more money in margin trading than in non-margin trading, but a common feature is that it is difficult to make big money in these two markets; traders who are longer than macro and shorter than micro can make a lot of money in non-margin trading, but will cause huge losses in margin trading.

Because of the nature of leverage and their unwillingness to stop losses, they will die in the dark before dawn until the day when the market proves them right. Therefore, for individual traders, they cannot engage in margin trading if they do not understand micro-trading.

Since a trader lacks a highly accurate macro judgment or cannot stick to it, he will not be able to make a lot of money, so to some extent he must trust his macro judgment. Because of this, macro judgment can easily be reduced to stubborn preconceptions.

If the position is in trouble, it may be wise to put aside your overall judgment and long-term view of the market for the time being. Perhaps it is urgent to clear or reduce the position in time so that it does not interfere with personal life.

To know that all major trends start from the small trend, to know that "thousands of miles of dikes, collapse in the ant nest" truth!Although it is unpleasant to admit mistakes, sometimes it is necessary for us to ask ourselves:

Am I really wrong? Even if I am only temporarily wrong, can I bear the loss caused by maintaining my position?

Thus it can be seen that there is a contradiction within overall vision, that is, the contradiction between the macro and micro trend of the market, and there is also a contradiction between overall vision and the view of detail, that is, the contradiction between "opinion" and "fact". And stop loss is to admit mistakes, and to stop losses in time is to admit mistakes at the minimum cost.

Edit / emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment