Recently, I happened to read Li Lu's "Civilization, Modernization, value Investment and China". The first half of the book mainly describes in detail the development process of human civilization and the internal reasons and underlying logic of China's development from leading to backward to rising. Finally, it reveals to the public the logic of investing in China from the perspective of civilization and modernization.

Li Lu divides the history of human civilization into three leaping stages:

1.0 Hunter-gatherer civilization

2.0 Agricultural Civilization

3.0 Scientific and technological civilization

This combined with the archaeological program "Secret details" watched by the author just gave rise to some ideas. The author thinks about the advantages and core needs of human development in these three stages.

In the 1.0 stage, human beings have no advantages, and the core needs are suitable for the natural conditions of survival.

In stage 2.0, human beings are relative to 1.0, that is, the skills of farming and animal husbandry, and the core demand is cultivated land.

3.0 Scientific and technological civilization (industrial civilization) our advantage is constantly improving technology, and the core demand is also changing all the time. At the initial stage, the core demand is labor force. After technological progress reaches a certain stage, the core demand has become a factor of production other than labor force, of which energy is the most core factor (without energy supply, production and economic development will be restricted).

After decades of rapid development, China has stepped through the initial stage of 3.0 scientific and technological civilization. China's advantage lies in the progress of science and technology, and the core demand of China's future development is also in energy. This core demand is the sector that China will pay attention to and layout for a long time in the future, which will contain long-term value investment opportunities.

Current situation of energy utilization

In China, which is in stage 3.0, technology is constantly improving, production efficiency and resource utilization are getting higher and higher, but the shortage of energy will restrict the development of production and economy for a long time. The excessive exploitation and use of non-renewable fossil resources has also led to a series of eco-environmental problems.

At the present stage, China mainly depends on non-renewable fossil energy, which depends on thermal power generation on the one hand and traditional fuel vehicles on the other. The proportion of thermal power generation in China is still high at about 70%, while the sales of traditional fuel vehicles still account for more than 90%.

Renewable energy power generation will gradually replace thermal power generation

Renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic, water and wind provide sustainable energy supply for human beings, but due to the immaturity of technology, there are many problems that can not completely replace thermal power. Among many problems, the instability of renewable energy generation is the most acute problem. Compared with the stable renewable energy of thermal power, most of them are intermittent supply.

In 3.0 China, China's advantage lies in the development and progress of technology. With the maturity of energy storage technology and the development of distributed smart grid construction technology, the problems of energy supply instability caused by renewable energy will be effectively solved. At that time, the dependence on non-renewable energy will be sharply reduced, renewable energy power generation will gradually replace fossil energy, and the power supply will be continuously improved, and the ecological environment will be further improved.

Electric vehicles will gradually replace traditional fuel vehicles

The rise of electric vehicles will greatly reduce China's dependence on oil.

Under the strong promotion of the state, the electric vehicle industry has developed rapidly, but due to our long-term dependence on traditional fuel vehicles, as well as the problems such as battery life and shortage of charging piles, the promotion speed of electric vehicles is still very general.

Again, in this era of scientific and technological civilization, there is no shortage of technology. With the development of technology, the battery life, charging and other problems of electric vehicles will be solved soon, and then electric vehicles will completely replace the traditional fuel vehicles.

Volkswagen is not optimistic about electric cars have a point of view:

Although electric vehicles use electricity, but our country mainly depends on thermal power, electric vehicles can not play the effect of environmental protection and energy saving. We take a long-term view, the increase in the proportion of renewable energy power generation will provide a good opportunity for electric vehicles, the joint development of the two not only solves the problem of energy demand, but also solves the problem of carbon neutralization.

The development of renewable energy and electric vehicles is not only the demand of China's modernization, but also the demand of the continuation of civilization. The space for the development of these two is very huge, and the development time will be very long. The author thinks that this will be a rare opportunity for value investment.