BoCom International released a report that the delay at Yantian Port could have a knock-on effect on the entire supply chain, including exacerbating the shortage of containers and equipment at ports in southern China, and that the diversion posed further challenges to land transport. The bank expects supply bottlenecks to continue into the fourth quarter of 21.

While demand for goods in the west is likely to ease compared with the first half of the year, the bank expects shipments to remain robust in the second half of the year after the outbreak abates, given that retailers and manufacturers rebuild inventories after the recovery in western economies. The American Retail Association raised its forecast for the growth of US container imports, saying that container imports rose 6.5% / 0.1% month-on-month in the third quarter, compared with a year-on-year increase of 38.9% and 7.5%.

The bank raised its profit forecast for COSCO Marine Holdings (01919.HK) to reflect the upward trend in freight rates. The bank believes that with high freight rates (the Shanghai container rate index is up 14% from the first quarter), the company is expected to make strong profits again in the second and third quarters of 2021. The peak season comes early, and the cargo volume of sea control also remains at the peak level. Based on 2.2 times the 2021 forecast price-to-book ratio, the bank raised its target price from HK $17 to HK $24.30, maintaining buying.