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价值投资为什么这么难坚持?

Why is value investing so hard to stick to?

紅刊財經 ·  Jun 12, 2021 15:28  · Funds

There has been some improvement in the A-share market recently, and many investors are eager to increase their positions. When they chose the investment target, they suddenly found that a lot of stocks that had been adjusted in the early days had secretly risen back, such as spirits, medical and beauty care, lithium batteries, CRO and other sectors. I very much regret that I should not have run away in a panic in the early stage, let alone let go of those outstanding core asset stocks at will. Now it is not only more expensive to pick up, but also worried about catching up in the high position. This situation once again warns us that the best strategy for stock market investment is long-term value investment, let the wind and waves rise, sit firmly in the fishing boat. Chasing up, killing and falling is likely to outweigh the gain, or even end up with no harvest. However, most investors understand these principles, that is, they can't do it in practice and can't stick to it. Why?

The boredom of "long-term is gold" cannot resist the stimulation of "short-term is silver".

It is often said that time is the friend of value investment. Opening the list of A-share gains since its establishment, many familiar companies have bought and held since the day they were listed, and more than 100 have increased by more than 100 times, with a maximum increase of more than 300 times, many of which are usually familiar with enterprises. there are even more stocks that have risen more than 10 times after listing. If you compare the lowest price with the highest price, there are companies that have increased by more than 1000 times.

But few of these astonishing bulls, small and medium-sized investors and even institutional investors have been able to get them from beginning to end. It is not that they do not know that these companies are of good quality and that there is no urgent need for funds to enter the market, but that no one can hold them.

First, if it goes up too much, there is an impulse to cash in, so I can't hold it.. If a stock rises 10% or dozens, many people will be patient, but if it goes up twice or several times, it will basically fall into the bag. Otherwise, once you withdraw, you will regret it and your family will blame it. In this case, cashing in is the right choice. Anyway, earning money is the real way to earn money, otherwise it's just paper wealth.

Second, after rising for a long time, there is a fear of a pullback, which can not be held.. As we all know, there is no stock that only goes up and does not fall. The longer a stock goes up and the greater the extent of its rise, the stronger the expectation of investors' loss aversion will be, and the slightest change will certainly go up.

Third, the shock is too big and too frequent to bear.. China's stock market has jumped violently in recent years, and the stock price has fallen sharply, which not only provides space and reason for making price differences back and forth, but also brings endless pressure to long-term shareholdings. People who pay a little attention to the trend of the market will not turn a blind eye to the silver of their stocks. It will be inevitable to participate in the operation.

Fourth, the conformity mentality under the systemic risk, can't help it.. Bull investors have confidence and patience in holding shares, and when they encounter a bear market, they are likely to come out first. Many bull stocks will lose money as a result of this irrational impulse.

Fifth, the opportunity is attractive and unbearable.. The stock market has hot spots every day, and it is often changed, and it is the idea of many investors to accumulate a small victory into a big victory. Once they feel that they have the ability and level to do super short-term, especially if they occasionally succeed, long-term investment and value investment will certainly be left out of their minds.

Sixth, be inactive for a long time and be idle. Stock speculation, how can it be called speculation if you don't buy and sell often? As a result, casting nets everywhere, changing positions frequently and filling positions every day has become a realistic portrayal of many investors. The kind of people who expect value investment to remain motionless for a long time, for years or even decades, can only appear in prison and amnesia like the Dalian stock god aunt, and many people may feel uncomfortable and unbearable if they do not operate for a few days. Human nature is characterized by hyperactivity, gambling and self-righteousness. The stock market just provides people with such an exciting place to practice. Can he not try his luck?

The advice of "money does not enter the emergency door" can not endure the impulse of "fight and turn a bicycle into a motorcycle".

To invest in the stock market, many people's biggest dream is to get rich quickly and realize wealth freedom, that is, to make quick money and make a lot of money. As a result, value investment loses its strength in the face of the temptation of various opportunities. On the one hand, investors are keen to gamble. Gambling restructuring, bookmakers, gambling hot spots, gambling news, gambling performance, gambling distribution plan, expect to get rich overnight. This is also an important reason why retail investors listen to the wind is the rain, easy to follow the crowd, easy to be used by bookmakers, easy to lose money. On the other hand, investors' shareholding mentality is unstable. There are a little rumors, a little adjustment in the stock price, or something inconsistent with one's own imagination, and there is no movement to hold shares for a little longer, especially when you see that other people's stocks are rising, and you have a dead fish in your own stock. I'm worried that I wonder if there's something wrong with my stock, is it wrong to buy it? There will be an impulse to change shares. And the most pitiful thing is that whenever we sell the stock we don't like, it comes back to life in the hands of others, and it goes up as soon as we sell it, which makes people regret it.

In fact, there are many opportunities in the stock market, the stock market can not earn all the money, as long as you do not lose money, there will be opportunities. It takes a hundred days to climb high, but only one day to fall. If the chance is doubled or multiplied several times, it is easy to lose all the money in another accident, even if there is any leverage. It is far less safe than to realize compound interest appreciation steadily. Some people have made statistics that the annualized rate of return on investment by Warren Buffett is a little more than 20%, but few people in the world have been able to compare wealth with him for decades. So,The best mentality to stick to value investment is not to pursue short-term interests but to focus on long-term profits.

The illusion of low price can not hide the helplessness of "fear of heights are miserable people".

One of the biggest excuses for medium and small investors who are unwilling to invest in value is that they have little capital and cannot afford to buy stocks with high performance and high price. Many people have a quantitative mentality, that is, the more stocks they buy with the same money, the better. They do not think about the market value of stocks. As long as the market capitalization of a large number of low-priced stocks is the same as a small number of high-priced stocks, they rise and fall the same. Most importantly, price is a reflection of value, and a good company market will give a good price. After the implementation of the registration system, the number of listed companies is increasing, the selection is becoming more and more difficult, and the market trend is becoming more and more complex. Some stocks keep rising and some stocks keep falling. What is the most reliable under the structural market? Only value investment is the way out.

Value investment must overcome the fear of heights on stock prices.In a sense, we cannot simply limit the transaction to buy low and sell high. Sometimes, buying high and selling high is better and more effective. For example, stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Pianzi Kuang, Stone Science and Technology, Jingfeng Mingyuan, Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd.* and so on, no matter how the market changes in the past few years, they are basically all the way up. This is not to recommend these stocks, nor is it to say that buying these stocks is a value investment. Instead, it reminds everyone that good stocks are high, and there is room for profit. Many stocks bought at 6124 points in the Shanghai stock market not only got out of the trap, but even doubled several times. Therefore, when making value investment, at least high-priced stocks should not be excluded, on the contrary, we should focus on research and attention.

Invest with the mentality of "speculating in stocks and becoming shareholders"

In the past, some people regarded "stock speculation as a shareholder and real estate speculation as a landlord" as one of the biggest fools in life. However, the real value investment really needs to be invested with the mentality of shareholders. Before buying, we should examine whether the investment enterprises are all right or not, and carefully do a good job in research and analysis, especially to find out the advantages and risks of the enterprises. pay more attention to enterprises with monopoly advantages, resource advantages, technological advantages, brand advantages, market advantages, management advantages, policy advantages, and industry advantages. Once selected, as long as the previous advantages do not change, we should patiently let the enterprise grow and develop like the real shareholders until the enterprise no longer grows and has a turning point.

That's for sure,Value investment is not stubbornly defense. in the current environment of non-standard information disclosure, unpredictable market changes and imperfect corporate governance, we should always guard against the surprise attack of black swans. Once there are signs of bad market, technology, policy, management and operation of listed companies, they must resolutely come out.

Edit / yabo

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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