Original title: June 7-June 13 blockbuster events and data Prospect: focus on the interest rate decisions of the two major central banks Source: Huitong Network

During the week from June 7 to June 13, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank will announce interest rate decisions. In terms of data, China and the United States CPI, Britain GDP, EIA, first request, US trade account and euro zone economic climate index will be released one after another, and IEA will also release monthly crude oil market reports. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde will also appear to speak.

Key words on Monday (June 7): China's trade account, euro zone confidence index

The General Administration of Customs announced that China's foreign trade imports and exports totaled 11.62 trillion yuan in the first four months of this year, an increase of 28.5 percent over the same period last year. In April, China's imports and exports totaled 3.15 trillion yuan, up 26.6 percent from a year earlier. Of this total, exports totaled 1.71 trillion yuan, up 22.2 percent over the same period last year, while imports totaled 1.44 trillion yuan, up 32.2 percent over the

In dollar terms, China's imports and exports totaled US $484.99 billion in April, up 37% from a year earlier. China's exports rose 32.3% in April from a year earlier, and imports rose 43.1% from a year earlier.

Li Kuiwen, director of the Statistical and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that since June last year, China's foreign trade imports and exports have achieved positive growth for 11 consecutive months, and compared with the same period in 2019, the growth rate of imports and exports in the first four months of this year is as high as 21.8%. This shows that China has made major strategic achievements in overall epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and stable foreign trade policies and measures are strong and effective.

China's trade data are expected to continue to improve in May, with a dollar-denominated trade surplus rising to $51.05 billion, compared with $42.85 billion in April, with exports expected to rise 32 per cent year-on-year and imported materials surging 54.1 per cent.

Investor confidence in the eurozone improved much more than expected in May. The index was 21.0 in May and-13 in April. As the European economy continues to open, the euro zone's CPI reached 2% in May, the unemployment rate fell to 8% in April, and the confidence index is likely to rise further in June, indicating more confidence in the European economy.

Among 1600 financial analysts and institutional investors, Sentix investor confidence is a monthly survey that shows market views on the current economic situation and expectations for the next semester. The index, released by Germany's Sentix Co., Ltd., consists of 36 different indicators.

Manfred Hubner, managing director of Sentix, said: "the economic performance in all regions of the world is clear. The overall index of the United States hit an all-time high and rose for the 13th month in a row. The global economy is now beginning to show clear signs of overheating. This could prompt central banks to slow this momentum. "

Keywords on Tuesday: final value of Japan's GDP, euro zone economic climate index, US trade account, API

Preliminary statistics released by the Cabinet Office on May 18 showed that Japan's real gross domestic product (GDP) fell 1.3 per cent month-on-month in the first quarter of this year, or 5.1 per cent at an annualised rate, affected by the rebound in the COVID-19 epidemic.

Data show that in the first quarter, due to the successive implementation of a state of emergency in Japan's three major economic circles, personal consumption, which accounts for more than 1/2 of the Japanese economy, fell 1.4% from the previous quarter. Investment in enterprise equipment, another pillar of domestic demand, fell by 1.4% from a pick-up in the previous quarter. In addition, exports increased by 2.3% in real terms over the previous quarter, while imports increased by 4.0%.

According to an annual report released by the Cabinet Office on the same day, Japan's real GDP fell 4.6% in fiscal year 2020 (April 2020 to March 2021), the largest decline since records began in 1955.

The final GDP of Japan in the first quarter may be slightly revised up, but the Japanese economy is still in the most difficult time in history.

The euro zone's ZEW index of economic sentiment hit an all-time high of 84 in May. Germany's economic sentiment index surged to 84.4 in May from 70.7 in April, well above economists' forecast of 72 and the best performance since the survey began in 2004.

Analysts believe that the effective control of the epidemic will contribute to the recovery of the German economy, which is expected to show significant growth in the next six months.

With the relaxation of epidemic restrictions and the advance of vaccination, the June ZEW survey is likely to show a narrowing of the gap between current indicators and future expectations. Germany is preparing to start vaccinating teenagers on June 7, thanks to the European Union's approval of Pfizer IncThe vaccine is used in children.

It is important to realize that the survey only collects the opinions of financial professionals, not actual economic activity. The index will continue to get some support from the stock market rally.

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit in goods and services widened further to $74.4 billion in March, up from the revised previous figure of $70.5 billion and a record high.

Us imports rose 6.3 per cent to $274.5 billion in March, an all-time high, while exports rose 6.6 per cent to $200 billion, the highest in more than a year, according to the Commerce Department report.

In addition, the trade deficit between China and the US rose by $6.7 billion to $36.9 billion in March, and China remains by far the largest trade deficit with the US.

Oren Klachen, chief economist of the United States, said that compared with other global economies, the United States is expected to continue to grow its trade deficit this year because of a stronger economic recovery and strong domestic demand.

The US trade deficit is now expected to be $68.5 billion in April, down slightly from March.

Key words on Wednesday: China CPI, Canadainterest rateResolution, EIA

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) continued to diverge in April: CPI rose 0.9 per cent year-on-year, slightly lower than expected, while PPI rose 6.8 per cent year-on-year, the highest since October 2017 and 6.5 per cent higher than the median forecast.

China's core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.7 per cent in April from a year earlier, up 0.4 per cent from the previous month.

Analysts pointed out that the inflation situation continues to diverge, CPI is low, while industrial inflation is worth paying attention to, and the upward pressure is expected to continue to spread to commodities in the middle and lower reaches in the future.

On June 4th Canada released closely watched job market data for May, which showed that employment in Canada fell by 68000 in May, while the unemployment rate was expected to be 8.2%. Among the employed population, the decline in full-time employment is significantly lower than the previous value, while the decline in part-time employment is also slightly less than the previous value, the data shows that the Canadian job market is still not optimistic, but there are signs of slow recovery.

The analysis points out that after the gradual vaccination, Canada's job market is in a slow recovery stage, but there is still a large gap compared with sustained employment growth, so the Bank of Canada's idea of tightening may have to be reconsidered. In the context of rising house prices and inflation in Canada, the Bank of Canada is indeed in a dilemma.

In the April interest rate resolution, the Canadian central bank announced as expected that it would maintain the current policy rate and announced that it would cut its Canadian government bond purchase program from C $4 billion to C $3 billion from next week. The Canadian central bank also said it would advance its expected schedule of raising benchmark interest rates from 2023 to the second half of 2022.

Us crude oil stocks fell 5.1 million barrels last week and are expected to fall by 2.4 million barrels, but gasoline stocks rose by 1.5 million barrels, the biggest increase since early April, and refined oil stocks rose by 3.7 million barrels.

Brian Kessens, portfolio manager at Tortoise, said: "the sharp decline in crude oil inventories is really constructive for the oil market as a whole. However, the increase in refined oil inventory is disappointing, which may be due to the increase in refinery operating rates ahead of the summer peak driving season.

Bob Yawger, head of energy futures for Mizuho in New York, said: "they have refined so much crude oil that stocks of gasoline and refined oil have increased. You don't want to refine so much crude oil, and then customers don't need them.

Key words on Thursday: European Bank Resolution, CPI of the United States, first invitation

The ECB will make big decisions on asset purchases, and recent speeches have shown that there is little disagreement among members of the governing council. As the eurozone's internal rate of return spreads widen, this does not seem to be a good time for hawks to squabble over increased bond purchases. Policy makers are expected to extend the "significant increase" in purchases under the epidemic emergency asset purchase program for another three months.

The management committee is expected to agree to keep monthly PEPP purchases at about 85 billion euros in the third quarter, rather than reducing them to the same level as in the first quarter.

In the statement, policymakers are likely to make the same judgment on the balance of risk as they did at the last meeting on April 21-22.

ECB staff are unlikely to change significantly in their economic forecasts, although judgments of economic activity in the first half of 2021 will decline slightly and expectations for full-year inflation will rise slightly.

Initial jobless claims under the regular state unemployment benefit plan fell by 20, 000 to 385000 in the week ended May 29, falling below 400000 for the first time since COVID-19 's outbreak, according to data released by the Labor Department on June 3.

The labor market continues to heat up as the remaining epidemic restrictions are relaxed and more vaccinated Americans want to return to travel and socialization. Next Thursday's data is expected to continue to decline slightly, indicating that the labor market is gradually getting back on track.

Data show that US CPI rose 4.2 per cent in April from a year earlier, the biggest year-on-year increase since September 2008. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI grew 0.9 per cent month-on-month, the biggest increase since April 1982.

Analysts believe that due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the overall price level in the United States was relatively low in 2020, resulting in a certain exaggeration of CPI growth this year, and inflation is expected to fall later this year.

Some analysts also pointed out that in the context of soaring commodity prices, the US government's trillions of dollars of economic stimulus package and rising labor costs, inflationary pressures in the United States are likely to continue to rise.

The market remains bullish that CPI will continue to soar to 4.6 per cent in may, with the fed's long-term inflation target at 2 per cent. If so, the data will put more pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates.

Key words on Friday: UK GDP, IEA monthly report, Michigan confidence Index

The April GDP data will give us an idea of how quickly the economy rebounded after England reopened its non-essential retail, outdoor catering, personal services and leisure industries.

The economy grew faster than expected in March, with output rising 2.1 per cent after schools reopened and social restrictions were partially relaxed.

Official retail sales data and high-frequency indicators show that economic activity rebounded sharply after the deregulation of epidemic prevention on April 12. GDP is expected to grow by 2.8 per cent this month.

Looking ahead, the economy is expected to grow by 6% in the second quarter as public life returns to a more normal state and seizes better consumption opportunities.

The forecast assumes that the Government's final road map will proceed as planned on 21 June. Even if delayed, it is unlikely to change the overall picture of the economy returning to its pre-outbreak peak in the fourth quarter of 2021 (the fourth quarter of 2019).

The final index of consumer confidence at the University of Michigan was 82.9 in May, little changed from 82.8 in early May, but down sharply from 88.3 in April. In the May survey, a record number of consumers surveyed said the prices of housing, cars and household durable goods had risen. At the same time, the number of Americans worried about soaring prices has reached an all-time high.

But Richard Curtin, head of the University of Michigan Consumer confidence Survey, does not seem to be worried about inflation in his report: although Qualcomm IncInflation shrinks real income, but the gains from consumer spending are undoubtedly significant. For now, it is unlikely that consumer inflation expectations will continue to grow, but they cannot be completely ignored. Policymakers only need to change the policy language and raise interest rates slightly to dampen inflation expectations. The move will not surprise consumers, as 2/3 expect interest rates to rise in the coming year.