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景顺长城鼎益(162605)投资价值分析报告:长期高集中持有消费类公司 16年创造26倍收益

Invesco Great Wall Dingyi (162605) Investment Value Analysis Report: Long-term High Concentration of Consumer Companies Generated 26 Times Revenue in 16 Years

東莞證券 ·  Jun 4, 2021 00:00

Core ideas:

Performance: Jingshun Great Wall Dingyi Fund has outstanding short -, medium-and long-term performance. as of June 01, 2021, during the 16.2 years of operation, Jingshun Great Wall Dingyi Fund had a total return of 2641.41% and an annualized return of 22.64%. It is one of the ten equity funds that have been established for more than 15 years and have an annualized income of more than 20%, especially since the management of fund manager Liu Yanchun. As of May 26, 2021, the performance and return of similar funds ranked first. Due to the untimed and highly concentrated investment strategy adopted by fund managers, the volatility of this fund is higher than that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and similar funds, and the withdrawal is greater in extreme cases. But the risk-adjusted rate of return is also considerable.

Fund manager: fund manager Liu Yanchun has more than 12 years of investment experience and has been working since joining Jingshun Great Wall Fund Company in January 2015. he has managed six products with a total size of 101.5 billion yuan, accounting for 44.16% of the equity investment of Jingshun Great Wall Fund Company. it has become the second fund manager to manage hundreds of billions of market capitalization in the history of Chinese public offering funds. Liu Yanchun has performed well since joining Jingshun Great Wall in 2015, and the six funds under management now have annualized returns of more than 25 per cent, ranking among the top 1/3 of their kind. It is worth mentioning that four of these funds took over at high levels in the market, but all outperformed the CSI 300 index substantially, indicating that fund managers have the ability to cross the bull-bear cycle.

Investment strategy: fund manager Liu Yanchun adopts a bottom-up investment strategy, generally does not take the initiative to choose the time, but relies on the ability of excellent enterprises to travel through the cycle to deal with market fluctuations, and pursues a better level of long-term compound return by undertaking short-term fluctuations. Since its management, the positions of the top 10 stocks in Jingshun Dingyi are much higher than the average of the same kind, and have been maintained at more than 70%, and the number of effective positions is usually less than 20. Gain through long-term, high concentration of shares. And increase positions against the trend when the market or high-quality stocks are adjusted, such as the unilateral bear market in 2018, the market in the first quarter of this year and the adjustment of the liquor sector. The untimed operation style determines that the fund is prone to large fluctuations during the market adjustment, but if the market style fits, the fund shows a very strong offensive. In the choice of industry, Liu Yanchun mainly focuses on the easy production of "bull stocks".

The gold track consumer and pharmaceutical sectors are not involved in the investment in new energy vehicle-related industries with historically high valuations; for the selection of high-quality individual stocks, select the leading companies with large market capitalization in related industries. For long-term bullish high-quality stocks dare to hold heavy positions and hold for a long time. Liu Yanchun has concentrated his positions in the liquor industry since 2019Q2, basically maintaining about half of the positions in the top ten stocks.

Fund companies: the company is mainly distributed in active equity funds and monetary funds, and non-monetary funds rank 16th among 143 fund companies. The internal differentiation is serious, the fund managers with excellent head performance and products occupy a large share; the average working years and maximum years of fund managers are longer than the industry average, and only one fund manager left office in the past year, indicating that fund managers have rich management experience and good stability. In order to constantly enrich the product line, fund companies have been recruiting 7 new fund managers in the past year.

Investment value analysis: the short -, medium-and long-term performance of the fund is excellent, ranking in the top 5% for two consecutive years in 2019 and 2020. For optimistic stocks and industries, they dare to take heavy positions and hold them for a long time, and increase their positions against the trend when the market adjusts. However, the operation style of untiming and high concentration of shares determines that the fund is prone to large fluctuations. Due to the excellent historical performance fund manager Liu Yanchun is recognized by the majority of investors. The fund size under its management has exceeded 100 billion, which is comparable to the management scale of all equity assets of a large and medium-sized fund company. in the long run, the fund can go through the bull-bear cycle, which is suitable for investors with high risk tolerance to take the fixed investment as the core allocation.

Risk hint: the stock market fluctuates sharply and the fund manager leaves office.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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