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OECD预测全球经济今年增长5.8% 中国有望实现8.5%高增长

OECD predicts that the global economy will grow by 5.8% this year. China is expected to achieve a high growth rate of 8.5%.

參考消息 ·  Jun 2, 2021 12:57

Original title: OECD predicts that the global economy will grow by 5.8% this year. China is expected to achieve a high growth rate of 8.5%.

The reference News Network reported on June 2.According to foreign media, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ((OECD)) said on May 31st that the global economic outlook is improving due to the fact that vaccination actions have enabled businesses to resume operations and the United States has injected trillions of dollars into its own economy. The organization raised its forecast for global economic growth.

Paris, May 31 (Reuters)-the global economy will grow 5.8 percent this year and 4.4 percent next year, the OECD said. Its March forecasts for global economic growth this year and next are 5.6 per cent and 4.0 per cent, respectively.

In its latest economic outlook report, the OECD said that the global economy has now returned to pre-epidemic activity levels, but has yet to meet growth expectations before the global health crisis.

"the world economy is now moving towards recovery, but there is a lot of resistance," said Lawrence Boone, chief economist of the OECD, in an editorial note to the report.

According to a report in the Nippon Keizai Shimbun on June 1, the OECD released a forecast on May 31 that the global economic growth rate will be 5.8% in 2021. The economic recovery of the United States and China will play a leading role. The OECD predicts that the world economy is expected to recover steadily, but also points to the risk of new variants of novel coronavirus and inflation.

In its economic outlook released in March this year, the OECD forecast that the global economy would grow by 5.6% in 2021. Given the extent of the recent economic recovery in the United States and China, the OECD is taking a more optimistic view.

The OECD forecasts that the US economy will grow by 6.9 per cent in 2021, 0.4 percentage points higher than the 6.5 per cent forecast in March. China's economy is expected to grow by 8.5% this year, 0.7 percentage points higher than previous forecasts. In the United States, progress has been made in vaccination. Personal consumption is recovering as a result of the Biden administration's stimulus policies. China has brought the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic under control, and enterprise activities are also being carried out.

The OECD forecasts that Japan's economy will grow by only 2.6% this year, 0.1 percentage point lower than its previous forecast. Although Japanese exports continue to recover, slow vaccination and low potential growth rates have had a negative impact. The OECD believes that Japan's real GDP will not return to pre-epidemic levels until the second half of 2021.

The OECD stressed that the world should be vigilant against the risk of a new variant of novel coronavirus and inflation. Some countries, mainly developed countries, have long implemented economic stimulus measures, so that side effects such as inflation have also spread to emerging markets.

In addition, according to a report on the website of the Wall Street Journal on June 1, the OECD said on May 31 that driven by an active vaccination program and the latest fiscal stimulus plan of the US government, the global economy is likely to grow at its fastest pace in nearly half a century this year.

However, in its latest quarterly report on the global economic outlook, it warned that many poor countries were being lagged behind and that it would take longer for them to return to per capita output levels before the COVID-19 epidemic than rich ones.

Lawrence Boone, chief economist of the OECD, called on governments to do everything they can to increase vaccine production and ensure that vaccines are more widely distributed.

"We want countries with production capacity (the United States, Europe and India) to produce as many vaccines as possible," Boone said. "

The global economy is now expected to grow 5.8 per cent this year, higher than its March forecast and the strongest expansion since 1973, according to the OECD. The global economy shrank by 3.5% in 2020.

The OECD also raised its growth forecasts for the US, eurozone and China this year, raising its US growth forecast to 6.9 per cent from 6.5 per cent, the eurozone growth forecast to 4.3 per cent from 3.9 per cent, and China's growth forecast to 8.5 per cent from 7.8 per cent.

However, the OECD cut its growth forecast for India this year to 9.9 per cent from 12.6 per cent.

Reported that although the OECD now believes that the rebound in economic activity this year will be stronger, but said inflation is unlikely to continue to rise.

"Oil and commodity prices are rising, and there are some strange factors having an impact because of changes in consumption patterns," Boone said. " "but as the effect of the supply-side response becomes apparent, this momentum should gradually fade," she said. "

经济合作与发展组织下调了日本的经济增长预期。5月28日,日本首相菅义伟宣布延长东京等地的紧急状态,图为街头行人在观看视频直播。(美联社)

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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