Experience, incentives and funds lay the foundation for the re-launch of the medical and beauty business. The company entered the medical and beauty racetrack in 2016. At present, there is a medical and beauty hospital, and the medical and beauty industry investment fund, which has a 45% stake, has four medical and beauty hospitals. In 17-20 years, the company's medical and beauty business is mainly based on internal optimization and rectification, and its management level and profitability continue to improve. With the compliance development of the medical and beauty industry and the improvement of the penetration rate, the follow-up company is expected to increase its investment and support to the medical and beauty industry. it is expected to accelerate the development of medical and beauty business through industrial fund hospitals, new outpatient departments, extension + endogenetic opening of new hospitals, layout of upstream targets, and so on. Early landing projects will help accumulate operational experience, 9.48% of the buyback shares are expected to provide effective incentives, and the real estate business is expected to provide sufficient funds and ammunition. It is estimated that in 21-23, the EPS will be 0.35,0.45,0.46 yuan, and the target price will be 11.38 yuan, giving the "overweight" rating for the first time.
Medical and Beauty Business: revive, reassemble and start again
The company acquired Shanghai Tianda Medical and Beauty Hospital in 16-17, set up an industrial investment fund to acquire a number of hospitals, and focused on internal optimization and rectification in 17-20. The management level and profitability of medical and beauty business continued to improve.
The development of the medical beauty industry is accelerated, and the light medical beauty project is the main growth engine. Early medical institutions mainly rely on information asymmetry to influence user decision-making, with weak consumer stickiness and low repurchase; the development of industry compliance, the acceleration of underlying asset securitization, the rise of domestic upstream manufacturers, consumer reflux and other factors work together to catalyze, medical and American institutions are expected to ease the disease and enter a new stage of development. The company has set up a cross-functional M & A team, and it is expected to accelerate the development of medical beauty through the merger of industrial fund hospitals, the establishment of new outpatient departments, the extension + endogenetic opening of new hospitals, and the layout of upstream targets. Experience / incentives / funds establish the momentum of long-term development.
Real estate business: Nanjing resource-based housing enterprises, high-quality and abundant goods to support the transformation. By the end of 2020, we estimated that the company's salable value was 68.5 billion yuan, and the net interest rate was about 22%. Among them, the salable value in Nanjing is 55.1 billion yuan, accounting for as high as 80%. The net interest rate is about 24%. The company's Nanjing projects are all developed for nearly 20 years, and are expected to benefit from the sound fundamentals of Nanjing real estate market, as well as the double dividend of Jiangbei New area national planning and Pukou District settlement relaxation. it will provide continuous cash flow support for the company's transformation. Taking into account the company's positioning of real estate as the cash flow business to support the transformation, we do not expect the need for significant leverage in the future, and debt levels are expected to remain low, creating a good financial foundation for the transformation.
Coverage for the first time, giving "overweight" rating
Real estate business uses NAV valuation, the reasonable value is 28.301 billion yuan; using scenario hypothesis, the company's medical and beauty business income will reach 140 million yuan in 21 years, using PS valuation method, which can be compared with the company's 21-year average PS (Wind consensus expectation) 59 times, taking into account the company's determination to transform and the strength of capital and talent support, give medical and beauty business 45 times 2021PS, a reasonable value of 6.233 billion yuan. The reasonable value of the company is 34.534 billion yuan, and the target price is 11.38 yuan.
Risk hints: regional real estate market fluctuations, the actual medical and beauty business landing rhythm and scenario assumptions there is a large gap, medical mergers and acquisitions are not expected, the risk of loss of key personnel.
