The readings of this report are as follows:
Annual growth rate-25% in line with expectations, Q1 performance growth rate of 26%; adhere to the "one body and two wings" strategy, layout of industrialization and EPC business, promote the upgrading of the assembly decoration industry, and are optimistic to maintain the leading first-mover advantage.
Main points of investment:
Maintain and increase holdings. The company's revenue in 2020 was 10.8 billion yuan (+ 0%) and the return net profit was 320 million yuan (- 25%). The 2021Q1 revenue was 1.9 billion yuan (+ 31%) and the net profit was 70 million yuan (+ 26%). Taking into account the decline in the growth rate of real estate investment, the forecast for 2021-22 EPS to 0.35max 0.42 yuan (formerly 0.38max 0.51 yuan) is 47%, and it is predicted that EPS will grow by 20% in 2023. The target price will be reduced to 9.45 yuan, and the target price will increase by 18.7 times PE, corresponding to 27.2max in 2021-23.
The growth rate of revenue has improved steadily, and the operating cash flow has reached a new high. 1) 20Q1-21Q1 quarterly revenue growth-25 0.2pct (+ 0.2pct), net profit growth (+ 0.2pct), net profit growth (2) gross profit 14.3% (- 0.2pct), net profit 3.1% (- 0.2pct), net profit 3.1% due to premium and impairment loss; 3) 4% rate 9.0% (+ 0.2pct), of which 3% (+ 0.4pct) is due to R & D; 2) gross profit margin of 14.3% (- GDP), net profit 3.1% (- 1.0pct) due to premium and impairment loss; 3) 4% rate 9.0% (+ 0.2pct), of which 3% (+ 0.4pct) 4) operating net cash flow of 550 million yuan (+ 29%) reached a new high due to increased efforts to co-ordinate funds; 5) weighted ROE 3.9% (- 1.5pct).
Newly signed orders accelerated at the end of the year, and residential decoration orders increased significantly. 1) 16.2 billion yuan (+ 11.5%) for the newly signed order in 2020, 4.9 billion yuan for 2021Q1, 147 for the quarter of 20Q1-21Q1, 15.6 billion yuan for decoration construction (+ 13%), 2.6% for sales of decoration products (- 23%), and 1.5% for decoration design (- 7%). The newly signed business is 15.6 billion yuan (+ 13%) for decoration construction, 2.6% for sales of decoration products (- 23%), and 1.5% for decoration design (- 7%). In the decoration construction, the public clothes / residential decoration is respectively 985,800 million yuan, with a growth rate of-1 pm 50%, respectively. 3) the final unfinished order of 21Q1 is 25.4 billion yuan, with a guarantee multiple of 2.4 times.
Architectural decoration bibcock, around the "one body and two wings" layout industrialization / EPC business. 1) take the industrialization of architectural decoration as the core, drive the development by technological R & D and innovation, establish a complete assembly-style interior decoration system, perfect "two integrations" for product iteration, and 2) use EPC mode to carry out large-scale projects and overseas markets, focus on markets and channels, strengthen the comprehensive capacity of key areas, and improve profitability and delivery capacity. 3) deepen the intellectual research of Yaxia, deeply cultivate the field of BIM to support the strategic transformation of assembly decoration, and 4) build a new intelligent city to drive the digital transformation of the industry.
Risk tips: the decline in the growth rate of real estate investment, the promotion of prefabricated decoration is not as expected, the capital side is tight, and so on.
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