The cross-border e-commerce business has become the core driving force of the company's performance, and maintaining the “buy” rating of the cross-border business has gradually become the company's core driving force. As the concentration of exports to the cross-border e-commerce industry increases, Zebao is expected to fully benefit. The “export cross-border e-commerce version of the Xiaomi ecosystem” model will further consolidate the company's existing advantages in brands, products, channels, etc., and the “expand categories, expand channels” strategy will bring about continuous performance growth. The profit forecast remains unchanged. The estimated net profit for 2021-2023 is 452/629/871 million yuan. Based on the current share capital, the EPS is 1.28/1.78/2.47 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 10.9/7.8/5.7 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Brand, product and channel advantages build the company's core competitiveness
Brand side: Zebao began a brand transformation strategy in 2012, formed six independent brands, and won numerous Amazon Premium Seller awards. Currently, the company is concentrating resources to build three international brands, mainly VAVA, and launch smart device products to achieve rapid improvement in brand effects. Product side: Digital product selection and product innovation mechanisms. There are many popular products under the boutique model, and various products such as laser TVs, aromatherapy machines, and tower fans have performed brilliantly.
Channel side: Zebao focuses on online channels and makes full use of Amazon B2C platform resources to accumulate brand potential; stable logistics partnerships ensure efficient product delivery and further strengthen the company's channel advantages.
The “cross-border e-commerce version of the Xiaomi Ecological Chain” model further consolidates the advantages of brands, products, and channels Ze Bao invests in enterprises with high-quality supply chain resources and technology through the form of equity investment, empowers them, and provides key resources such as brands, channels, marketing, and user groups. At present, the company has established stable cooperative relationships with leading supply chain companies such as Midea and Gree, as well as technology-based enterprises such as Elephant Sound Technology and Guangfeng Technology. We believe that under the “investment+incubation” cooperation model, the company can quickly expand its product line, enhance its product strength, and achieve long-term win-win while helping partner enterprises open up overseas markets.
Outlook: Expanding categories and channels brings growth impetus
Category expansion: Smart product development and innovation plans in the direction of video images, small household appliances, etc. are continuously implemented. In the future, the company plans to enter high-potential industries such as home robots and furniture. Channel expansion: While deepening the operation of the Amazon platform, seek the expansion of diversified channels for online and offline collaboration, and actively lay out emerging markets. Furthermore, with the completion of the digital and intelligent transformation of traditional businesses and the opening of channels for major furniture and hardware customers, future performance is expected to grow steadily.
Risk warning: trade policy changes, industry competition intensifies, Amazon platform rules are becoming stricter, exchange rate risks
