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充电桩行业风口巨变!企业争抢万亿级市场,这两个赛道哪家才是未来?

The trend of the charging pile industry has changed dramatically! Companies compete for the trillion-level market; which of these two tracks is the future?

e公司 ·  May 27, 2021 16:13

Source: e Company

Author: Huang Xiang / responsible Editor: Zhang Yifan

01.pngNiuniu knocks on the blackboard: the outbreak of new energy cars has pushed related industries into the tuyere, this time to the front of the stage is the charging track.

A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "implementation opinions on further improving the Service guarantee capacity of rechargeable Infrastructure" (hereinafter referred to as the opinion draft). After the release of the document, the charging pile plate rose on the same day, reflecting the market's sensitivity to this area.

On the same day of the release of the document, a conference on technological innovation of electric vehicle charging facilities was also being held in Qingdao, where hundreds of front-line engineers and technicians from the industry had a purely technical discussion.

This is a fast track, and no one dares to slow down. From the industry development trend to the technology roadmap, from the dispute over charging and power exchange to the discussion of industry technology standardization, and even the impact of parameter changes on safety, which path is the direction of certainty in the future? This is also the focus of attention from all walks of life.

The scale of the super-trillion market

In April this year, new energy vehicles stood out at the Shanghai International Auto Show. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, 750000 and 732000 new energy vehicles were produced and sold from January to April this year, an increase of 2.6 times and 2.5 times respectively compared with the same period last year. As of March this year, there were 5.51 million new energy vehicles in the country, accounting for 1.92 percent of the total. Among them, 4.49 million are pure electric vehicles, accounting for 81.53% of the total number of new energy vehicles.

According to the plan, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 20% in 2025, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of new sales vehicles, and vehicles in the public domain will be fully electrified.

The accompanying charging market space is also very huge. In terms of ownership, the data show that in 2019, there are 516000 public charging piles in China, 255000 in the European Union, 72000 in the United States and 32000 in Japan, with a global compound growth rate of 32%. The scale of China's charging industry ranks first in the world, accounting for more than half of the world.

According to the "Global EV Outlook 2019" report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the research of Evergrande Research Institute Ren Zeping, the global number of private charging piles is expected to reach 1.28-245 million units by 2030, with a total charging power of 1000-1800GW and a total charging capacity of 480-820TWh.Public charging piles are expected to reach 1000-20 million units, with a total charging power of 113-215GW and a total charging capacity of 70-124TWh.

According to the global average, the average price of public piles, private charging piles, electricity charges and service charges in 2030 is 4000 yuan / kWh and 0.70 yuan / kWh, respectively. Therefore, the scale of global charging piles is 0.81-1.58 trillion yuan in 2030, and the charging cost is 0.66-1.13 trillion yuan, totaling about 1.5-2.7 trillion yuan.

The domestic market is already the largest automobile market in the world, and because of different national conditions, the ratio of public piles to private piles is much higher than that of Europe and the United States, and is expected to account for 40% of the global market share of charging piles, so the domestic market for charging pile equipment and services will reach 600 billion-1.08 trillion. At present, nearly 130 domestic charging equipment manufacturers have adopted it.

In the face of such a market space, China's industry has also formulated a development plan. According to the "Energy Saving and New Energy vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0", the charging infrastructure development goal is to build more than 13 million slow filling ports (including self-owned piles and public piles) and about 800000 public fast charging ports (including dedicated areas) by 2025; guarantee annual power demand of 100 billion kW.h to support the charging of more than 20 million vehicles. Slow charging piles in new urban residential areas were built at 1:1, wireless slow charging reached 6-10kW, and pilot cities with high power and fast charging were carried out. 3000 fast switching stations were completed and developed into a shared power exchange technical standard.

By 2035, China will build more than 150 million slow filling ports, 1:1 parking spaces for slow charging ports, and 1.46 million public fast charging ports; guarantee annual power demand of 500 billion kW.h and support the recharging operation of more than 150 million vehicles.

At the same time, it is necessary to achieve high-power fast charging for more than 5 minutes to drive 300Km, automatic fast change time up to 1.5 minutes, and annual promotion of new energy consumption up to more than 100 billion degrees.

At the first China Electric vehicle charging facilities Technical Innovation Conference held on May 20, Shao Zhehai, former chief expert of Putian New Energy Co., Ltd., pointed out that there will be three major trends in the development of charging facilities in the future. "the first is to meet the needs of efficient service applications in charging scenarios, with the full electrification of private cars, public cars, buses, commuter buses, taxis, online hailing cars, light freight vehicles and some special vehicles. High-power charging, wireless charging, DC low-power charging, V2G, optical storage charging and other charging technologies suitable for different application scenarios will be gradually realized. The second is to improve the efficiency of charging services, ensure charging safety, and achieve automatic charging experience. Intelligent technology and artificial intelligence will be widely used in the network of charging facilities. The third is the trend of efficient interaction and deep integration between charging infrastructure and electric energy, especially renewable energy. "

Dispute over the route of recharging and recharging

Around the power supply for electric vehicles, there are two development modes in the industry, one is through charging, the other is through shared power exchange.

In the charging direction, at present, there are mainly special calls, Yingfei, HKUST Intelligence, Altsun, etc., while in the direction of power exchange, there are mainly Zhongheng Electric, Xu Ji Electric, BAIC Blue Valley, etc., and the dispute over the route of power supply solution has become the focus.

Lan Zhibo, vice president of technology of Aodong New Energy Automotive Technology Co., Ltd., said, "charging has a very basic related problem-time, charging time is in the travel link, it is not a very matching thing at present, and it takes a long time." And power change is not only "fast", but also to make up for the lack of charging, for users to create a full scene of energy supply service solution. "

Lan Zhibo points out that vehicles with high load rates require a lot of time, which is often called operating vehicles, while private cars do not require so much time. However, when private cars need to be recharged, users still have a high demand for time and efficient energy replenishment. "how to match efficient rechargeable energy supply for users is an issue that the electric vehicle industry needs to seriously consider. Especially for high-load vehicles (operating vehicles), an efficient charging solution must be established. "

For sharing power exchange, Lan Zhibo said, "for users, sharing improves the convenience of power exchange for car owners, which is beneficial to users. For operators, sharing improves the commerciality of power exchange operation and is beneficial to sustainable operation. In addition, sharing reduces the total cost of social resources, which is beneficial to society." "

Yu Dexiang, chairman of the special call, who is mainly engaged in the charging grid business, said that the cost of changing electricity is higher than charging, so it is difficult to form a commercial closed loop. "the cost is high, and the user will not pay the bill if it is transferred to the user, but if it is not passed on, it will not be profitable. Power replacement also requires the laying of a large network, and the scale of investment is much larger than charging. "

Yu Dexiang pointed out that in hot cities for electric vehicles, such as Beijing, good charging stations can recover the cost in two years, but for the convenience of customers, it will take at least four to five years to build a charging grid for the city. "to build a good exchange station, the best scenario requires 3-4 years to recover the cost, to build a city-oriented exchange network, to serve those dedicated exchange cars, at least 6-8 years or more to recover the cost. In addition, he believes that problems such as the difficulty of battery standardization and coordination with the power grid are the pain points of the power exchange track.

Despite the heated commercial debate, from a policy point of view, charging and power replacement are supported, and new facilities such as charging piles and power stations are proposed in the 2021 government work report. In the opinion draft released on May 20, it is proposed to optimize the financial and tax support policies for the construction of recharging facilities, and strengthen subsidies and tax incentives for indemnificatory recharging facilities such as highways, townships and residential communities. At the same time, it is necessary to improve the capacity of financial services, and include qualified recharging facilities and investment in the construction and renovation of supporting power grids into the scope of special bonds for new infrastructure and the China Clean Development Mechanism Fund. China Development Bank and other financial institutions provide long-term low-cost funds for the construction of recharging facilities through a variety of channels. Insurance institutions are encouraged to develop commercial insurance products suitable for recharging facilities.

From the point of view of the two technical trends, on the one hand, it is the trend of high-power and fast charging. With the improvement of the high-rate performance of the battery, the goal of Chaoji charging is that the passenger car can be charged in 5 minutes to achieve a mileage of more than 300km +. On the other hand, the trend of power exchange sharing is that the fast change technology will tend to be mature, and it is expected that it will take the lead in a wide range of applications in the field of rental / ride-hailing and heavy-haul cars. ToB will drive ToC to form the original power exchange platform and shared battery rental format.

Zhou Libo, director of the Comprehensive and Planning Department of the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation Standardization Management Center, analyzed that from the comparison of the service capacity of the power station and the fast charging station, "take the comparison of 60kw DC charging and power exchange in the same unit area as an example, the battery replacement mode is more than 24-30 times / day / standard parking space, and the fast charging mode is more than 6-8 times / day / standard parking space. From the economic comparison of construction, on the basis of the same service capacity, the cost of power exchange station is about 180-2 million yuan, and the cost of fast charging station is about 40-500000 yuan. "

Zhou Libo said that the industrialization promotion of battery replacement technology (power exchange) for electric vehicles mainly lies in the business model, and for some time in the future, battery replacement technology will still be mainly applied to specific vehicles running in local areas, such as taxis, leases, buses, and so on. Considering the cascade utilization of batteries and the development of energy storage and energy Internet, battery replacement still has room for exploration.

For adopting charging mode, she pointed out that high-power charging and wireless charging are the two major development directions of electric vehicle charging technology, and high-power charging takes ChaoJi charging technology as the direction. At the same time, with the continuous development of automobile intelligence and Internet connection, the demand for wireless charging will increase day by day.

The war of charging piles is not the story of sharing bicycles.

In fact, the commercial competition around the charging pile has already begun. In Qingdao, there are special calls, star charging, national network and other enterprises in this layout. A ride-hailing owner shows a mobile phone software interface commonly used by drivers to the Securities Times. It shows the location distance of the surrounding shared charging piles as well as the real-time electricity price. "the lowest is 50 cents per kilowatt-hour, and the highest is more than 1, and the price varies at different times of the day. "the car owner said that there was a price war at the beginning of this year." Evergrande gave a lot of subsidies when it entered this year, with a minimum of 10 cents per kilowatt-hour of electricity. "

According to the reporter's understanding, the fee paid by car owners when using charging piles is generally composed of two parts: "service charge + electricity charge". Enterprises will carry out subsidy activities to reduce service charges and subsidize electricity prices from time to time. Therefore, there are also voices that the war of charging piles will be a replica of shared bikes, there will be a melee, and it will also be a "protracted war".

But this kind of voice is not recognized by the industry. "for the charging industry, a lot of people don't understand the logic. Yu Dexiang, chairman of the special call, told the Securities Times that the charging business is not as simple as making a charging pile, but should be made into a network.

"for the rechargeable grid, it includes electricity, energy, big data and other related majors. It is a comprehensive discipline facing new technologies, cross-disciplines, cross-industries, cross-enterprises and cross-categories in new industries. It is difficult for a single company to complete it independently, and it needs a big system to support it. "Yu Dexiang said," many small companies think that a charging pile can make money, a charging pile can do charging, feel that there is no threshold for technology, this is not understood. "

"the charging business must be made into a net, and you can't live without it. For example, if you are now a PHS, will anyone use it? Charging grid is like mobile, Unicom, it is for mobile phone services, mobile phone is moving, go with people, so it must have a network, and the properties of electric vehicles are the same, electric vehicles are moving, as long as things move, there must be a net. Yu Dexiang said, "as long as there is a network, it will not be a small business, it must become a service to almost all the business to survive." "

"at the same time, many people think of the charging grid as a consumer Internet platform, which is also wrong. Yu Dexiang said that the charging grid is an information technology facility that links people, cars, batteries and energy, which is not the same as the traditional charging pile is just an one-way physical charging plug. On this system, there is a huge amount of interaction between people and vehicles, devices and devices every day. "making a charging grid is a kind of industrial Internet thinking, and the data of the industrial Internet is growing, while the consumer Internet is a 'cloud' floating to the sky. You can't do industrial Internet with Internet thinking. From this point of view, it's not the idea of sharing bikes. "

Yu Dexiang believes that the concentration of the charging industry will become higher and higher. "without the accumulation of time and technology, it is difficult to become the head of less than 100% of the closed loop of the entire industrial chain. "

Safety and endurance are pain points.

Technology is running wild all the way, what is the pain point from the user's point of view?

Mr. Wu, the owner of the online ride-hailing car, told the Securities Times that safety and driving range are the most concerned by car owners. "driving a streetcar has to be recharged every day, and the mileage in winter is even shorter. On the other hand, the safety problem is also very worried. Some time ago, there was an accident of charging and burning a car. As soon as more than 100,000 cars were burned, the car was gone, and the insurance could not settle the claim. "

Chen Xiaonan, head of the charging Technology Branch of National Grid Electric vehicle Service Co., Ltd., pointed out that at present, electric vehicle battery fire accidents occur occasionally, which have a certain negative impact on the development of the industry, for example, at the equipment level, due to untimely operation and maintenance or improper operation by users, personnel are electrocuted due to insulation damage of charging piles.

A few days ago, the special call released a concerned "car burning insurance" service. The company said that if the car is burned when the special call is recharged, the ultimate loss of the users who enjoy the service will be borne by the special call.

Special call released "car Burning guarantee Service"

"the charging process and the static state after being fully charged are the main parts of the fire accident, which often occur in the state of high charge. Ju Qiang, chief scientist of the special call, pointed out that it is only in the charging process that it is most suitable for battery safety monitoring.

Ju Qiang showed several cases to the Securities Times. On December 28, 2020, a pure electric ride-hailing car in Chengdu spontaneously ignited its battery after charging. According to the data platform, the highest temperature anomaly was detected by big data platform on the 21st of that month. And issued an early warning. At that time, the owner failed to repair the vehicle in time, and the vehicle caught fire a week later. The battery temperature of a pure electric refrigerated vehicle in Xi'an was abnormal in October 2020. The monitoring platform of the special electric charging network identified the anomaly and sent it to the users and special call workers. When the staff tracked the maintenance of the users, it was learned that the vehicle power battery leakage was found in the maintenance, and the vehicle temperature index returned to normal only after the battery was replaced.

Historical data also show that 80% of the spontaneous combustion accidents of new energy vehicles occur during charging or one hour after being fully charged. This means that if the charging safety can be ensured, then the spontaneous combustion accidents of electric vehicles can be greatly reduced. "said Ju Peng.

Li Zhigang, chief engineer of Shenzhen Autexun, pointed out that at present, new electric vehicle charging technologies and new applications emerge one after another, including high-power charging, low-power DC, flexible charging stack, vehicle BOOST boost charging, double-gun charging, V2G and so on. How to ensure personal safety and equipment safety is the most concerned. "from the technical level, what the industry needs to study is to increase the level of equipment self-diagnosis. Each new application should fully analyze the security impact on the whole system when one or more of these functions fail. Many of our new applications do not fully evaluate the security of the whole system. "

In addition, industry research believes that there are still shortcomings in the planning of public charging facilities. Chen Xiaonan, head of State Grid Electric vehicles, said that at present, there are still some shortcomings in the industry, such as imperfect planning guarantee mechanism, uneven regional development, mismatch between supply and demand, and low comprehensive utilization rate, and the development of the charging industry is still a systematic project.

Another trillion market

The electric car charging business is not the only target for head companies, and energy storage is another big market.

At present, under the goal of "carbon neutralization", energy storage has ushered in opportunities for great-leap-forward development. according to Everbright Securities, from domestic and foreign wind power generation side energy storage, grid side energy storage, user side energy storage and other aspects, the cumulative energy storage demand space from 2020to 2030 is 1.3 trillion yuan for 94TWh.2030 annual energy storage investment market space (6 trillion yuan from 2020). 5 trillion yuan in 2060 (122 trillion yuan since 2020).

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the guidance on accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage (draft for soliciting opinions), defining the development goal of the energy storage industry for the first time, and achieving a new energy storage installed scale of more than 30 million kilowatts (30GW) by 2025, setting the tone for the energy storage industry from the initial stage of commercialization to large-scale development.

In recent years, Special call, National Grid, BYD and so on have been laid out in this field one after another. the common practice is to use electric vehicle power battery as energy storage carrier to do integrated energy management of charging and storage.

For example, Special call, which focuses on charging business, has rich load-side resources such as electric vehicle charging piles, distributed energy storage and controllable loads, and has its own aggregator platform. it can aggregate the dispersed controllable load into a relatively large-scale "polymer". The microgrid supported by the power grid can be connected to photovoltaic and energy storage, and the energy can be balanced and consumed locally in the microgrid.

Special call charging network real-time dispatching center

To put it simply, Tolai calls the electric vehicle itself as a mobile "portable battery", and each battery parked in the parking space is linked to the power grid, becoming a huge flexible energy storage battery system of the power grid. To balance the relationship between grid power consumption and power generation, "the energy storage done by TLY allows the car to charge at low prices and sell electricity at peak prices. "Yu Dexiang described it. When the microgrid has a certain scale, it can become a regional "power station".

At the same time, the electric vehicle battery is recycled by the enterprise after being eliminated, and it is put into the prefabricated warehouse to become the energy storage equipment, forming a set of power battery energy storage ladder utilization scheme.

In addition, the energy storage business carried out by the national network is mainly based on the construction of integrated optical storage and charging stations. Chen Xiaonan, the relevant responsible person, said that at present, it is speeding up the study of integrated photovoltaic, energy storage and charging facilities capacity allocation and security protection technology with optimal economic benefits, adopting advanced DC bus technology, and making full use of photovoltaic, energy storage and other new energy sources to solve the problems of limited distribution capacity and low voltage at the end of the power grid. At present, nearly 20 integrated "optical storage and charging" charging stations have been built in Beijing, Fujian, Shandong, Shanghai and other cities, effectively improving operating income and efficiency.

According to the report "Roadmap 2.0 for Energy Saving and New Energy vehicles", charging + energy storage is also an important trend in the technological development of the charging industry. The report points out that through the coordination of wind, light, storage, charging, and vehicle network, and the coordination of V1G and V2G microgrids, it has created a huge demand space for the integrated development of the transportation energy industry, and energy storage devices will be widely used, which will improve the security of energy supply. It is beneficial to the consumption and share of renewable energy, and promote the low-carbon transportation energy.

The report points out that the future technology development trend of the industry will evolve on the establishment of new business type, a smart energy collaborative data service of mobile energy storage and smart grid.

Edit / isaac

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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