Pudong Jinqiao: Shanghai Jinqiao Regional Core City Development and operator Shanghai Jinqiao Export processing Zone Development Co., Ltd. was established in 1992 and landed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in March 1993. Since listing, the company has seized the opportunity of development and opening up in Pudong and relied on the brand and capital advantages of listed companies to actively undertake the development and construction, investment attraction, industrial development and carrier operation and management in Jinqiao area of Shanghai Free Trade pilot Zone, and strive to create a demonstration park with the integration of production and city.
Park business: multi-format power, leasing properties contribute to stable rental income park business, the company is mainly engaged in the development, operation and management of real estate projects in Shanghai Jinqiao Industrial Park. Since 2018, the construction area of the rental projects held by Jinqiao in Pudong has continued to expand, and the overall occupancy rate has been maintained at a relatively high level of more than 80%. By the end of 2020, the company held about 2.7 million yuan of all kinds of operating properties, with an overall occupancy rate of 80.71%.
In 2021, Pudong Jinqiao will continue to promote the development of properties held in the park, and in 2021, it will focus on promoting the advance and construction of 13 projects, including Jinqiao one Center, China Mobile Shanghai Research Institute, and the construction of; Office Park Jinke Park according to the planned nodes.
Residential development: building Biyun brand high-quality housing
In terms of housing development, Pudong Jinqiao, relying on its own regional comprehensive development advantages, has undertaken the development of high-quality residential projects in the region, and the unsettled projects imply a higher profit to be settled. According to the pre-sale ratio of 50% of the core project Biyunzun residence project, we estimate that under the assumption that the house price does not rise, the total goods value of the Biyunzun residence project is close to 9 billion. According to the company's development schedule, the total investment of the project is expected to be 2.88 billion. The unsettled projects that have been sold imply higher settlement profits. The part of which has been sold is expected to enter the income settlement in 2021.
Regional development: five times + Golden Central. The year 2020 is a promising year for the development of Golden Bridge in Pudong New area. According to the business plan of Pudong Golden Bridge, the company will make every effort to promote the rolling planning, development and construction of more than 20 projects in accordance with the general idea of "one batch of operation, one batch of construction and one batch of reserve". As the main developer of Jinqiao area under the State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Pudong New area, under the high-quality policy support policy, the company is expected to achieve high-quality sustainable growth in terms of business quality.
Investment suggestion: we expect that the Biyunzun residence, which is accompanied by the early sales of Jinqiao in Pudong, will be delivered and settled one after another. at the same time, the leased property will continue to complete and attract investment into the mature operation stage, and the company's revenue and performance will achieve steady growth.
It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will achieve operating income of 4.248 billion, 4.93 billion and 5.492 billion, up 18%, 16% and 11% year-on-year, and realize net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.294 billion, 1.578 billion and 1.948 billion, up 16.8%, 21.93% and 23.5% over the same period last year. Diluted earnings per share are 1.15,1.41 and 1.74, corresponding to PE of 10.6x, 8.7x and 7x.
At present, the development index of Shenwan Park PE is trading at 14.6 times, and the 2021 performance of Jinqiao in Pudong is 10.6 times the current share price. As a developer in the core area of Jinqiao area in Pudong, Shanghai, while multi-format owned properties contribute to steady growth in rental income, high-quality residential sales continue to increase the company's performance. driven by the 14th five-year Plan "Pudong doubling" and "Golden Central" planning, the company is expected to usher in high-quality development with the help of policies. We believe that under the company's strong regional comprehensive development strength and the regional advantages of holding properties, the company has a high certainty of growth, covering it for the first time and giving it a "buy" rating.
Risk reminder events: the tightening of the financing environment exceeded expectations, the tightening of real estate regulation and control policies exceeded expectations, the epidemic repeatedly hit the real estate leasing business again, and the public information used in the research report may lag behind or not updated in a timely manner.
