Bank of AmericaMichael Hartnett (Michael Hartnett), chief investment strategist, points out that if you try to find a historical stage similar to the current unprecedented period in capital markets, the bulls can look at 2017-2018, when the United States faced strong economic growth, but the Fed hesitated.
Bears think it was between 2007 and 2008, when a series of deleveraging events ended in reckless speculation that led to the collapse of the market.
Hartnett, on the other hand, believes that the present is most similar to the period of 1967-69.During this period, the United StatesHuge budget deficitIt led to a rise in interest rates and the Federal Reserve maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy.Inflation率Rise to a multi-year high. As shown in the following figure, the Fed policy rate and Dow JonesThe trend of the index is surprisingly negative.
The economic situation at that time was as follows:
1967: us bond yields rose 1001 basis points, stocks rose 24 per cent, and volatility was-37 per cent.
Small-cap stocks, technology stocks and growth stocks rose, while volatility, government bonds and defensive stocks unfortunately fell.
1968: us bond yields rose 32 basis points, stocks + 11%, and trading volume rose 5%.
Bank stocks, value stocks, small-cap stocks and energy stocks rose, while government bonds, technology stocks and credit continued to fall.
1969: us bond yields rose 89 basis points, stocks fell 8 per cent, trading volume rose 99 per cent. ...
Volatility, copper, pharmaceuticals and technology rose during this period, while energy stocks, small-cap stocks, value stocks and banking stocks fell.
How did this period end?
The value bull market of 1968 was followed by a volatile bear market of 1969.
Then在20Century70Decade的In ten years, the United States has almostBe trapped inHyperinflation, thanks toThe then chairman of the Federal ReservePaul VolckerPush up the interest rate in time20%才Stopped the United States.EconomicsThe collapse.
Us stocks continue to sing in the first half of 2021, similar to what happened in 1968, so will the market stage a bear market similar to that of 1969 in the second half of the year or next year?