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高盛:料布伦特原油价格有望触及每桶80美元的水平
Goldman Sachs: Brent crude is expected to hit $80 a barrel

新浪財經 ·  {{timeTz}}

高盛以疫苗驱动下的需求大幅增长前景为由作出预期称,尽管有潜在的伊朗产量回归市场可能,但油价上涨的势头“依然未变”。

Goldman SachsCiting the prospect of a sharp increase in vaccine-driven demand, the upward momentum in oil prices "remains unchanged" despite the possibility of a potential return of Iranian production to the market.

高盛Damien Courvalin和Jeff Currie等分析师在5月23日的报告中说,市场走势眼下或已反映出伊朗原油夏末重回市场的预期,但是这种预期低估了即将到来的需求反弹,因而显得过于悲观。

Analysts such as Goldman Sachs Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie said in a report on May 23 that the market may now reflect expectations of Iranian crude returning to the market at the end of the summer, but that expectations underestimate the upcoming rebound in demand and are therefore too pessimistic.

在伊朗,谈判的重点似乎是就恢复JCPOA(联合全面行动计划,Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)的条件达成一致,这意味着在取消美国第二轮裁方面可能会有滞后或遭遇潜在僵局,再或者相关条件会使伊朗石油重回市场的规模有限。

In Iran, the focus of the negotiations appears to be on agreeing on the conditions for the resumption of JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)), which means that there may be a lag or potential stalemate in canceling the second round of US cuts, or the related conditions will bring Iranian oil back to the market on a limited scale.

需求方面,发达市场的出行、旅行规模可能会超出高盛的预期,那可以弥补南亚和拉美近期需求受到的冲击。

On the demand side, travel and travel in developed markets may exceed Goldman Sachs' expectations, which could make up for the recent impact on demand in South Asia and Latin America.

由于活动水平依然受压,高盛将下半年非OPEC+日产量预测下调25万桶,将同期页岩油日产量下调20万桶。

As activity levels are still under pressure, Goldman Sachs will be non-OPEC+ Nissan in the second half of the year.The volume forecast was cut by 250000 barrels and shale oil production by 200000 barrels per day over the same period.

面对越来越多的需求反弹证据,以及即将澄清的伊朗原油重回市场可能性,高盛认为下一波油价涨势前景已经变得更加清晰,布伦特原油价格有机会升至每桶80美元的水平。

In the face of growing evidence of a rebound in demand and the possibility of Iranian crude returning to the market soon to be clarified, Goldman Sachs believes that the outlook for the next oil price rally has become clearer, with Brent crude oil prices likely to rise to $80 a barrel.

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