Summary

Under the circumstances that the internal structure of American society is quite divided, after taking office, Biden put forward a series of plans to raise taxes and increase government spending, which are aimed at changing the structural problems facing the United States. narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor: the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, the $2.35 trillion American Jobs Plan, and the $1.8 trillion American Family Plan.

In terms of effect, during the 100-day New deal of US President Joe Biden, the vaccination program was overcompleted, and funds for relief tools have been distributed by more than 60%. Voters' satisfaction with Biden has improved, which is better than Trump over the same period. However, compared with previous US presidents, Biden's approval rating in his first 100 days in office is only better than Trump and Ford, and not as good as other presidents. From a long-term point of view, under the dual role of investment and taxation, the overall impact of Biden's three major fiscal policies on the economy is negative.

1. "100-day New deal": $6 trillion in fiscal stimulus

Since entering the White House on January 20, 2021, US President Joe Biden has signed a series of executive directives aimed at helping the United States get rid of the impact of the epidemic and get back on the normal economic track. and try to alleviate the structural problems of the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States for a long time. It mainly includes three major fiscal stimulus policies, with a size of more than $6 trillion.

One of the fiscal stimulus: the $1.9 trillion "American rescue plan".

Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the US economy has been greatly damaged and American families have been impacted. in order to help families out of their difficulties and help the United States embark on the road of economic recovery, US President Joe Biden put forward a $1.9 trillion "American rescue plan" on January 20. It consists of three main components: vaccination programmes and the reopening of schools, financial assistance to working families, and assistance to communities and small businesses. The bill was formally passed on March 11 and implemented on the ground.

The second fiscal stimulus: the $2.35 trillion American Jobs Plan.

In order to create jobs and rebuild US infrastructure, US President Joe Biden proposed a $2.35 trillion American Jobs Plan (10-year plan, which has not been passed yet) on March 31st. It mainly consists of six components: $671 billion in investment in transport infrastructure; $311 billion in investment in drinking water, power grids and broadband; $378 billion in housing, schools and veterans' hospitals and federal construction; $400 billion in infrastructure investment in the care economy; $580 billion in R & D and revitalization of manufacturing; and $10 billion in high-quality job creation.

At the same time, the United States also put forward a "manufacturing tax plan."

On the one hand, it is to stimulate job creation and investment in the United States, on the other hand, it is also a source of funding for the American Employment Program. According to the official website of the White House, 91 Fortune 500 companies in the United States paid zero federal income tax in 18 years, and the average tax rate of 17-year-old companies fell from 16% to less than 8%. The US Manufacturing tax Plan will raise corporate tax rates, reduce tax breaks and deductions, and is expected to raise more than $2 trillion over 15 years to help the federal government continue to reduce the budget deficit.

The third fiscal stimulus: the $1.8 trillion American Family Plan.

In order to create jobs, rebuild American infrastructure and labor force, and stimulate domestic innovation and manufacturing development, US President Joe Biden proposed a $1.8 trillion "American Family Plan" (10-year plan, which has not yet been passed) on April 28th. It consists of three main components: $511 billion in public education and investment, $495 billion in direct assistance to children and families, and $800 billion in tax cuts. At the same time, a "tax plan" is proposed, which mainly increases taxes on personal income and capital gains of high-income people.

In addition, US President Joe Biden has also put forward a number of administrative directives on vaccines, climate, race, gender, relief, strengthening the United States, and diplomacy.

two。 How did Biden perform in the top 100?

So, what was the effect of the implementation of the main policies during the first hundred years of Biden?

The vaccination programme has been overfulfilled.

In December last year, US President Joe Biden proposed to complete 100 million doses of vaccination within 100 days of taking office, which was realized ahead of schedule on the 58th day. Since then, he proposed to complete 200 million doses of vaccination within 100 days of taking office. As a result, it was also successfully completed in more than 90 days. Biden set a new target again on May 4, and by July 4, at least 70% of adults would be injected with one dose.

The progress of fund release has exceeded 60%, and the personal income of residents has set a record.

According to the tracking data of the due diligence Federal Budget Committee (CRFB), among the relief tools that have been implemented, the progress of all funds has exceeded 60%. Among them, the progress of direct payment funds is the highest, more than 90%; secondly, the progress of income support and loans and donation programs are more than 70%.

With the help of financial aid, the income of American residents grew by a record 29.0% in March, of which transfer income contributed 90%.

So what do American voters think of Biden's first hundred years?

The overall satisfaction has been improved, and there are great differences between parties.

According to Morning Consult survey data, U. S. President Joe Biden's 100-day job performance satisfaction is 57%, 3 percentage points higher than when he first joined the White House in January. However, there are obvious differences between parties, with the satisfaction of democratic parties rising from 88% to 94%, while that of Republicans falling from 19% to 18%, and their dissatisfaction rising by 14 percentage points.

In spite of this, US President Joe Biden still outperformed Trump over the same period.

Registered voters rated US President Joe Biden's 100-day performance as "C +", which was better than Trump's "C -" over the same period, especially in areas such as climate change and health care, according to Morning Consult survey data.

However, compared with previous presidents, the approval rating is relatively low.

Compared with the approval rate of the last two presidents, since entering the White House, US President Joe Biden's approval rating is on average 10 points higher than Trump's in the same period, but less than Obama's in the same period. In terms of approval ratings on the 100th day, US President Joe Biden's approval rating is only better than Trump and Ford of the same period.

3. What is the long-term impact of the "100-day New deal"?

So what is the impact of Biden's American Rescue Plan, American Jobs Plan and American Family Plan on the economy?

The long-term impact of the American rescue plan on the economy is negative.

According to PWBM, the US Rescue Plan will boost GDP growth by 0.6 per cent in 2021. Over time, however, the US rescue plan will lead to a significant increase in additional public debt, resulting in a massive crowding out of productive capital, resulting in a 0.6 per cent and 0.9 per cent decline in capital stocks in 2022 and 2040 compared with current levels. Eventually, GDP in 2022 and 2040 will fall by 0.2 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively.

The American jobs plan will drag down the economy by about 1%.

According to PWBM, infrastructure investment in the American Jobs Plan helps increase the productivity of capital and labour, but the increase in productivity is not enough to offset the additional capital crowding out caused by the increase in the government deficit. In addition, the tax increase plan will also reduce the enthusiasm of enterprises to invest and inhibit household savings, and the reduction of household savings will further aggravate the reduction of investment.

Taking into account infrastructure investment and tax increases, the US jobs plan will drag down the economy by 0.9 per cent over the next 10 years, an average of about 0.09 per cent a year, and capital stocks and average hourly wages will also fall by 3 per cent and 0.7 per cent over the next 10 years. In addition, federal debt will increase by 1.7% over the next 10 years; however, due to the persistence of the tax effect, federal debt will fall by 3.4% by 2040 and 6.4% by 2050.

American family planning will drag down the economy by about 0.3%, but wages will rise by 0.4%.

According to PWBM, public investment in the American Family Plan will help increase labor productivity, but the crowding-out effect of higher federal debt will dominate and the capital stock will decline. In addition, the tax increase plan will also hinder the work of certain highly productive families.

On the basis of comprehensive consideration, compared with the current, the American Family Plan will drag down the economy by 0.34% over the next 10 years, with an average annual rate of about 0.034%. Over the next 10 years, the capital stock will decline by 0.09%, and the average hourly wage will rise by 0.41%. However, as spending exceeds income, federal debt will continue to increase by 2.16 per cent over the next 10 years and 4.55 per cent by 2050.