With the improvement of the overseas epidemic, the recovery of economy and demand may strengthen the commodity prices that drive global pricing, and the rise in commodity prices will drive the rise in the domestic PPI price index, which will eventually be transmitted to CPI to some extent, so research institutions predict that domestic inflation will rise, so anti-inflation varieties must enter the investment field.

Commodities can be said to be the "prettiest" in the market this year, from non-ferrous metals such as copper and nickel to energy and ferrous metals such as crude oil, coal and iron ore, to agricultural products such as corn, and many varieties have reached multi-year record highs.

Reflected in the stock market, the three industries with the biggest gains in the A-share market this year are steel, coal and non-ferrous metals (Citic's first-tier industry), up 29.21%, 16.21% and 12.56% respectively so far this year. Just released April data also showed that PPI rose by more than 6 per cent year-on-year.

In this context, many investors are looking for "anti-inflation" varieties. How exactly will inflation be interpreted? How should the fund investment be arranged?

A number of investors interviewed by the China Fund News believe that inflation expectation is one of the important factors affecting the market. There is a high probability that the level of inflation will rise this year, but the probability of obvious inflation is not high. Investors can focus on the concept of "inflation expectation". You can pay attention to financial and cyclical funds, but we should pay attention to the volatility behind it, and the probability of the best layout time has passed.

The central trend of inflation will rise in the future.Become the main factor affecting the market

Just released CPI data showed that PPI rose more than 6 per cent year-on-year in April, while core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, continued a "V-shaped" reversal, with core CPI rising 0.7 per cent year-on-year in April.

"PPI is high, the transmission of inflation from upstream to downstream should only be a matter of time and extent, and it is possible for the central trend of inflation to rise in the future. Xu Yiyang, a fund manager of Debang Fund Equity Investment, said bluntly that inflation is related to all sectors of the economy, and its change must be one of the important variables that most investors pay attention to.

Another fund manager also said that as the overseas epidemic improves in 2021, the recovery in the economy and demand will lead to a strengthening of globally priced commodity prices, and the rise in commodity prices will lead to a rise in the domestic PPI price index, which will eventually be transmitted to CPI to some extent, and domestic inflation is expected to rise.

Jiang Yong, fund manager of the quantitative Investment Department of Haifutong Fund, also believes that inflation will become a major factor affecting the market. People in China are more worried about the policy adjustment brought about by inflation. as the country is mainly imported inflation, the role of monetary policy is relatively limited. For overseas, it is still in the process of recovery, and many market participants believe that overseas inflation is temporary inflation caused by the mismatch between supply and demand. But the market is more worried, the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy ahead of time. Inflation is expected to continue to affect the market for some time to come.

Wang Bo, an Anxin fund manager, believes that if inflation expectations rise too fast, it may make the market worry that the Federal Reserve will reduce its bond purchases prematurely or raise interest rates in advance. At the same time, it may also trigger concerns about the extent of the "no sharp turn" in domestic monetary policy, affecting liquidity expectations to a certain extent, thereby suppressing risk appetite in the capital markets.

Periodic stocks fluctuate greatly.The short-term mood is too high.

Affected by the rise in the prices of commodities and other assets,Iron and steel, coal, non-ferrous, petroleum and petrochemicalAnd other areas of strong performance, some stocks performed bravely.

In this regard, Jiang Yong believes that such areas still need to pay attention to the fundamentals of the industry and the enterprises themselves, stimulated by the "carbon neutralization" policy, and the demand is in the process of picking up. In recent years, the capital expenditure of such enterprises is relatively low, and the improvement of production capacity is limited. It has brought strong support to the rebound of profits of such enterprises. Although many stocks have risen a lot, valuations are still low, and there is a certain correction with the commodity pullback, which is expected to have some layout value after the short-term pullback. However, it should be noted that cyclical stocks are particularly volatile, so it is not suitable for ordinary investors to blindly chase higher.

Wang Bo said that the pro-cyclical industry still has investment value in the medium term, and the core is that the trend of global economic recovery on the demand side is still in place, and the long-term policy of "carbon neutralization" on the supply side suppresses the release of supply. the probability of a sharp fall in commodities caused by the mismatch between supply and demand is small, so the release performance of the corresponding sectors is sustainable. However, the rapid rally in commodities in May has been catalyzed by the short-term relationship between China and Australia, and the market mood is relatively high, so it is suggested that we can wait for a pullback before layout.

At the same time, Wang Bo said that under inflation expectations, industries that can raise prices will benefit, and the supply and demand situation of each industrial chain is not exactly the same in each economic cycle. At least under inflation expectations, the supply and demand pattern of the upstream resource side is better than that of the middle and lower reaches. Relatively more beneficial.

"in an inflationary environment, industries or companies that have the ability to transmit rising cost pressure to the terminal may benefit relatively. For example, consumer goods companies with strong brands can pass on costs through product price increases, or in some service industries, the cost side is relatively weak affected by inflation, and for example, some excellent manufacturing companies can partly hedge against cost pressure by strengthening procurement, fine management and economies of scale. Maintain a relatively stable profit margin. Xu Yiyang said.

Sha Wei, head of the Boshi cycle investment and research integration team, said that from a seasonal point of view, the inventory data are relatively healthy during the peak domestic production season in April and May. But on the other hand, the rising prices of steel, coal and non-ferrous metals have led to a decline in the operating rate of many downstream industries under pressure, so it is necessary to closely observe the impact of demand and macro policies. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the total volume and structure of China's exports after the completion of vaccination in Europe and the United States, followed by the evolution of the Federal Reserve and domestic macro policies, which may all be around July, corresponding to the basic realization of universal immunization in the United States and the next meeting of the Politburo at home.

Sha Wei further said that in the short term, taking into account the marginal changes in domestic and foreign policies and the seasonality of demand and other factors, the future observation point is expected to be from June to July. In the long run, it is not normal for absolute prices to be too high at present. It is expected that cyclical resources stocks may be high shock, long-term supply and demand logic and better pattern of the plate will consider to continue to hold.

This is the layout of the "anti-inflation" fund.

How to allocate funds in order to better "fight inflation"?

In fact, from the analysis of investors, under inflation expectations, the most beneficial sectors should be the oil and metal sectors related to the restart of the global economy, so the share prices of cyclical and industrial companies benefit most from this rising process. Corresponding toCyclical funds, financial fundsAnd so on are all varieties that can be paid attention to.

"since the beginning of this yearCis-periodic plateThe performance is relatively strong. This also makes heavy positions.Resources, chemical industryAnd other related sectors of the equity funds show a better money-making effect. Wang Bo said.

Another fund manager believes that under inflation expectations, commodity-oriented alternative funds can focus on. In addition, some mixed funds and some industry-themed funds that prefer low valuation and high dividend equity assets can also be considered.

In addition, there is also a macro analyst who believes that in terms of fighting inflation,Stock fundWe can achieve our goal. But under inflation expectations, you can pay attention toFinancial and cyclical fundsHowever, excessive positions in such funds are not recommended, as their net worth can be very volatile.

Cyclical funds fluctuate greatly, and many people suggest the risks behind them. "short-term cyclical funds may have some performance opportunities, but the short-term returns of such products are flexible and the pullback is also large, so investors need to cash in the gains at the high point in time. In the long run, fund investors can look for products that have outperformed the market for a long time. "Jiang Yong said bluntly.

Another senior fund manager said that in the early days of inflation expectations, investors' placement of anti-inflation funds was a high chance of success, but I am afraid it is already a time when inflation expectations are relatively popular, and if they participate, we need to do a good job of timing.