Evaluation of Hong Kong stocks

Futu Information on May 17 | the three major indexes of Hong Kong stocks closed higher, with the Hang Seng Technology Index up 1.78% at 7699, the Hang Seng Index up 0.59% at 28194 points, and the National Index up 0.95% at 10503 points.

On the disk, the concept of e-cigarette stocks rose in the afternoon, while photovoltaic stocks and automobile stocks rose mostly.

Plate aspectLarge-scale technology stocks collectively strengthened, with Tencent up 3%, Meituan up more than 4%, Baidu, Inc. up 3.92% and Kuaishou Technology up 1.53%.

E-cigarette concept stocks are strong, Smoore International Holdings Limited rose more than 8%, China Bolton rose more than 6%, Huabao International rose more than 5%.

The auto sector was strong throughout the day, with Great Wall Motor up more than 7%, Byd Company Limited up more than 6%, Geely up nearly 4%, and Wuling Motors up nearly 2%.

The photovoltaic solar plate rose, Xiexin New Energy and Flat Glass Group rose by more than 8%, Sunshine Energy rose by nearly 7%, and Xinte Energy rose by more than 6%.

Individual stocks

$Meituan-W (03690.HK) $It closed up more than 4% at HK $254.2. According to Wind data, southbound funds bought a net HK $4.695 billion of Hong Kong stocks on Friday, of which Meituan received a net purchase of HK $1.078 billion, the largest amount. Credit Suisse previously said that it continues to love Meituan's strong executive ability and is confident about the company's long-term development prospects in the mainland service sector. Maintain Meituan's outperformance rating and target price of HK $410.

$Tencent (00700.HK) $The stock closed up 3%, bringing the share price back above HK $600. Tencent will release the list on Thursday, according to current brokerage forecasts, Tencent's income in the first quarter is expected to range from 128.7 billion to 139 billion yuan, with an average of 133.8 billion yuan, an increase of 24 percent over the same period last year. Adjusted net profit is expected to range from 31.7 billion yuan to 37.6 billion yuan, with an average of 34.7 billion yuan, up 28% from a year earlier.

$Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd.* (03759.HK) $It rose 1.48%, and at one point rose more than 4% in intraday trading. According to the quarterly adjustment results released by MSCI in May, Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd.* 's A-shares have been included in the MSCI China A-share Index and the MSCI China all-share Index, which will take effect after the close of trading on May 27. In addition, Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd.* 's H shares were increased by JPMorgan Chase & Co by 77166 shares on May 10, involving a capital of about HK $12.2558 million.

$COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919.HK) $It closed up nearly 6%. In the first quarter, the company realized a net profit of 15.452 billion yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 5200.62% over the same period last year, greatly exceeding market expectations. Citic Construction Investment Han Jun said: "European freight rates have jumped sharply, the US freight rate ceiling has been opened, freight rates continue to be a new high." The Suez Canal caused a ripple effect on freight rates, and the increase in freight rates began to spread throughout the route. COSCO Shipping Holdings's second-quarter performance of more than 20 billion has been a deterministic event. "

$Pop Mart International (09992.HK) $It closed up nearly 6% at HK $58.6. Debang Securities believes that this is an appropriate time for the company to define the voice of the tide play market, the corresponding quality improvement, category expansion, to further protect the company to open up new growth poles and promote revenue growth. The bank pointed out that the tide play track has high growth and there is still a lot of space in the future, while Pop Mart International, as the layout of the whole industry chain and the improvement of the sales system of various channels, its competitive advantage is still significant.

Today's turnover of Hong Kong shares TOP20

Hong Kong stock exchange fund

As for Hong Kong Stock Connect, there was a net inflow of HK $8.849 billion from Hong Kong Stock Connect (southbound) today.

Message surface

Macroscopic aspectThe central bank today launched the 100 billion yuan medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation (including the continuation of the MLF due on May 17), the interest rate remained unchanged at 2.95%, and carried out the 10 billion yuan seven-day reverse repurchase operation. Data show that there are 20 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 100 billion yuan of MLF due today.

Economic dataChina's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 17.7% in April compared with the same period last year, and is expected to grow by 25%, with a previous increase of 34.2%. From January to April, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 13.8373 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.6 percent over the same period last year.

Chip aspectAccording to the latest forecast of Gartner analysts, the global semiconductor market will reach about $545 billion in 2021, $602 billion in 2022 and $649 billion in 2025, and an average annual growth rate of 6.8 per cent from 2020 to 2025. Among them, the memory chip market will show explosive growth, and the average selling price will reach its highest point next year, forming a scale of 200 billion US dollars.

In terms of carsAccording to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April 2021, automobile retail sales reached 368.5 billion yuan, accounting for 11.1 percent of the country's total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 16.1 percent over the same period last year.

In terms of futures，Domestic commodity futures closed in a divergent trend, with the main contract of asphalt rising by 8%, LPG up by more than 3%, Shanghai silver, styrene, Shanghai tin and crude oil by more than 2%, and Shanghai gold, Apple Inc, stainless steel, coking coal, Shanghai aluminum, fuel and red dates by more than 1%. Hot coil fell by more than 5%, thermal coal by more than 3%, thread and methanol by more than 2%. No, no, no.

Institutional viewpoint

Morgan Stanley:Commodity prices are facing their strongest rally in decades, making them too expensive because of basic factors such as supply and demand, inventories and the cost of mineral production. After the second-strongest rise in the past 60 years, the risk-return outlook for commodities began to deteriorate. While macroeconomic advantages are likely to continue, many markets are facing the threat of a pullback in the second half of the year.

Commodity prices are expected to show a downward trend by the end of the year.Especially in iron ore, base and precious metals, food, European natural gas and liquefied natural gas, while oil, US natural gas and sugar prices are more resilient.

Fu Rui:Tencent showed off 50 games at his annual game launch, about 40 of which are new, which are expected to unlock more synergies between the online and offline worlds. The bank maintains its buy rating with a target price of HK $755.

Citigroup:China has issued new educational rules requiring private schools implementing compulsory education not to trade with stakeholders, arguing that the new rules completely prohibit K9 schools from trading with stakeholders and prohibit agreement control of K9 schools, which are stricter than expected. The bank said that the new rules are good for higher education, especially vocational education units, and are optimistic about Yuhua Education, Chinese Education Holdings, Hope Education, China Science Education and New higher Education Group.

Daiwa:Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's first-quarter results and second-quarter guidance are strong, mainly benefiting from better-than-expected orders and price increases. However, the bank still has doubts about the sustainability of the situation after running out of inventory, while inventory risk, the impact of capital expenditure on profitability and other factors on operations have led the bank to maintain its selling rating, raising its target price from HK $16 to HK $19.

Goldman Sachs Group:BABA's commodity trading volume reached US $1.2 trillion last year, and the annual active consumers in the mainland and overseas were 891 million and 240 million respectively. In addition to regulatory issues, management is committed to investing its increased profits in core strategic areas such as user acquisition / participation, merchant support, supply chain capabilities and technological innovation.

Based on the above factors, BABA's non-GAAP operating profit forecast for 2022 will be reduced by 63.6 billion yuan to 154.4 billion yuan. It is believed that the company's annual active consumers in China's retail market will reach the target of 1 billion this fiscal year. Goldman Sachs Group lowered his revenue forecast for the fiscal year 2022-2023 by 1% each, and the net profit from non-GAAP by 24% each.The target price was reduced from HK $340 to HK $321, remaining on the buy list.