share_log

阿里巴巴绩后下挫,一文览尽大行最新观点及目标价

Alibaba's performance declined after falling. Read all the bank's latest views and target prices

富途資訊 ·  May 14, 2021 14:26  · Opinions

Share prices fell sharply after BABA announced the results. BABA's US shares closed down more than 6 per cent yesterday, while Hong Kong stocks are now down more than 4 per cent.

BABA's latest financial report shows that for the year to the end of March this year, the company achieved a total revenue of 717.289 billion yuan (the same below), an increase of 41% over the same period last year, and the net profit belonging to shareholders was 150.308 billion yuan, an increase of 1% over the same period last year. Excluding anti-monopoly law fines and Ant Group-related equity incentive fees and other items, non-GAAP net profit was 171.985 billion yuan, up 30% from the same period last year.

Of this total, Q4 had revenue of 187.395 billion yuan, an increase of 64% over the same period last year, and an operating loss of 7.663 billion yuan, mainly due to a fine of 18.228 billion yuan under the anti-monopoly law. Excluding the one-off effect, the operating profit was 10.565 billion yuan, up 48 per cent from the same period last year.

The company's management said it had 891 million buyers in the year to the end of the fiscal year ended March. The company hopes that in the new fiscal year, Chinese consumers can continue to increase by more than 100 million, and achieve the goal of more than 1 billion annual buyers in China's consumer market as soon as possible.

A number of major banks updated BABA's rating and target price, most of which believe that BABA's increased investment is expected to have a negative impact on short-term profits. Credit Suisse, Stifel and other institutions reduced BABA's target price, but most institutions still give buy or outperform the market rating.

Daiwa: the large scale of investment is expected to become a short-term worry

Daiwa believes that BABA's fourth-quarter performance is mixed, of which the overall income is high market expectations of 4%, but the core business non-GAAP EBITA is lower than expected, and there are no surprises in the revenue guidelines for the new fiscal year; under the relatively high investment, BABA is expected to be flat in fiscal year 2022, reiterating his buy rating, lowering the target price from HK $300 to HK $290, and maintaining the preferred stock for large Internet companies.

Daiwa said that management expects revenue in fiscal year 22 to reach 930 billion yuan, while BABA plans to invest new profits in new businesses, including Taobao special offer, community group buying and local services, to increase its potential market size. this may drag down the overall profitability of the core business, and as the scale of investment is larger than in the past, it is believed that it will become a short-term worry And cut BABA's earnings per share forecast for fiscal year 22-23 by 7 per cent.

JPMorgan Chase & Co: BABA has entered a huge investment cycle and is expected to make a profit or zero growth in fiscal year 2022.

JPMorgan Chase & Co said that BABA's income guidelines are roughly in line with expectations, but it is believed that investors are most concerned about the company's investment process, because the company's management means that all new profits will be invested in key strategic areas, such as technological innovation and user growth.

JPMorgan Chase & Co pointed out that BABA is entering a huge investment cycle, and the company hopes to achieve the goal of more than 1 billion annual buyers in China's consumer market as soon as possible in the new fiscal year, and to achieve the relevant goals. It is estimated that the market has downside risks to BABA's forecast of 14% adjusted profit growth in fiscal year 2022. This means thatBABA will achieve zero profit growth in fiscal year 2022 (which ends at the end of March 2022), which disappoints the market.Investors will pay attention to when the return on investment will be achieved and the outlook for fiscal year 2023, but it is still too early to assess when the return will be obtained. The agency maintains its overweight rating on BABA's Hong Kong shares and its target price of HK $310.

UBS: BABA is aggressive in investment this fiscal year, and the market may lower his profit forecast.

UBS said in a report that BABA's Q4 revenue was higher than the bank and the market had expected, but the adjusted EBITDA was 29.9 billion yuan, lower than the bank and market expectations, and the adjusted EBITDA of the core e-commerce business was lower than the bank's original forecast.

The bank pointed out that BABA's management adopted an aggressive investment strategy for fiscal year 2022, indicating that all the new profits would be invested in key strategic areas in fiscal year 2022. Based on market expectations, BABA's profit in fiscal year 2022 could record 14% to 16% (mid teens) growth.Under the aggressive investment guidance, it is expected that the positive view of BABA's profit forecast for fiscal year 2022 will be weakened, or the profit forecast will be lowered.

UBS gave BABA a "buy" rating on the US stock, with a target price of $300.

Credit Suisse: lower the target price of Ali Hong Kong shares to HK $251, with a rating of "outperforming the market"

Credit Suisse issued a report saying that BABA's quarterly performance was slightly lower than expected. The adjusted EBITA recorded 22.612 billion yuan. Among them, profits in the core e-commerce business continued to fall by 6%.

BABA is believed to have a minimum valuation of US $190, providing a better opportunity for long-term investors to enter the market, the report said. The lineReduce BABA's profit forecast for fiscal year 2022-2023 by 9% to 13% to reflect the increase in investment in new businessThe target price of Hong Kong stocks fell sharply from HK $304 to HK $251, maintaining an "outperform" rating.

Stifel: lowered BABA's profitability forecast for fiscal year 2022, and reduced the target price of US stocks to US $280.

Stifel analyst Scott Devitt lowered BABA's target price for US shares to $280 from $290 and maintained his buy rating on BABA's shares. He said fourth-quarter results were in line with Wall Street expectations. He is downgrading his forecast for BABA's profitability in fiscal year 2022 due to increased investment spending, but remains optimistic about BABA's long-term prospects.

Edit / lydia

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment