国际金融协会（IIF）周四表示，全球债务水平在第一季度出现两年半以来的首次下降，但受发达市场下滑影响，发展中经济体的负债水平创下了新的纪录。
全球债务总额下降1.7万亿美元至289万亿美元，其中金融类债务占了近一半，而政府债务则继续增加。
相比之下，新兴市场的债务水平增加了6000亿美元，达到超过86万亿美元的历史新高，尽管前三个季度的增长速度明显放缓。这是由于主要由于财政约束，新兴国家政府债务增长放缓。
国际金融协会可持续研究主管Emre Tiftik表示：
“新兴市场的财政能力相对较弱，由于新兴市场政府债务总体稳定，非金融企业和金融业一直是债务累积的主要驱动因素。”
尽管全球债务水平下降，但由于世界许多地区的经济难以恢复到疫情前的水平，债务比率会继续上升。
从全球层面来看，2021年第一季度债务与GDP之比仅上升了1个百分点，略高于360%，由于全球发债低于疫情爆发前的水平以及预计的经济复苏，预计今年的债务与GDP之比将略有下降。而去年全球债务与GDP之比跃升逾36个百分点。
在新兴市场国家中，债务与GDP之比从疫情前的52%升至近60%。国际金融协会表示，尽管近期的脆弱性有所缓解，但许多经济体仍感受到持续的封锁和疫苗接种进展缓慢带来的压力。
“尽管全球融资状况仍然强劲，但与疫情相关的支出增加和收入损失，使许多新兴市场国家的偿债负担加重，包括菲律宾、南非、印度、印度尼西亚和土耳其。”
新兴市场也面临着越来越大的压力，要求它们加速向低碳经济转型，如果不这样做，可能会推高政府的借贷成本。
国际金融协会计算道：“据估计，气候脆弱性增加10%，新兴市场国家主权债务息差平均就会增加100个基点。”
Global debt levels fell for the first time in two and a half years in the first quarter, but were affected by a decline in developed markets, the (IIF) said on Thursday.Debt levels of developing economies hit a new record。
Total global debt fell by $1.7 trillion to $289 trillion, with financial debt accounting for nearly half, while government debt continued to grow.
By contrast, debt levels in emerging markets rose by $600 billion to an all-time high of more than $86 trillion, despite a marked slowdown in the first three quarters. This is due to a slowdown in government debt growth in emerging countries, mainly due to fiscal constraints.
Emre Tiftik, director of sustainability research at the Institute of International Finance, said:
"the fiscal capacity of emerging markets is relatively weak, and non-financial companies and the financial sector have been the main drivers of debt accumulation because of the overall stability of government debt in emerging markets."
Despite the decline in global debt levels, debt ratios will continue to rise as economies in many parts of the world struggle to return to pre-epidemic levels.
At the global level, the debt-to-GDP ratio rose by just 1 percentage point in the first quarter of 2021, to just over 360 per cent, and is expected to decline slightly this year as global debt issuance is lower than before the outbreak and the expected economic recovery. Last year, the global debt-to-GDP ratio jumped by more than 36 percentage points.
In emerging market countries, the debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from 52 per cent before the outbreak to nearly 60 per cent. According to the Institute of International Finance, despite the recent easing of vulnerabilities, many economies are still feeling the pressure of continuing blockades and slow progress in vaccination.
"while the global financing situation remains strong, increased expenditure and lost income related to the outbreak have increased the debt servicing burden on many emerging market countries, including the Philippines, South Africa, India, Indonesia and Turkey."
Emerging markets are also under increasing pressure to accelerate their transition to a low-carbon economy, which could push up government borrowing costs if they fail to do so.
The IIF calculates: "it is estimated that with a 10 per cent increase in climate vulnerability, emerging market sovereign debt spreads will increase by an average of 100 basis points."
