Performance summary: the company's annual income in 2020 is about 5.33 billion yuan (+ 15.3%), the return net profit is about 1 billion yuan (- 3.3%), and the non-return net profit is 590 million yuan (- 1.9%). Among them, the income in the fourth quarter is about 1.8 billion yuan (+ 20%), and the net profit is 320 million yuan (- 19%). The income of 21Q1 company is 1.27 billion yuan (- 9.6%) and the net profit is 143 million yuan (- 44%). The overall performance is in line with expectations. Among them, the non-homing net profit deducted in 2020 is mainly due to the exchange profit and loss of about 250 million yuan due to the relatively high proportion of the company's US business, while the fair value change profit and loss of the participating company's Kymab equity is confirmed to be 369 million yuan. With reference to the company's Hong Kong stock announcement, the company realized a net profit of 850 million yuan under the Non GAAP caliber, which is + 96% of the same period last year.
To build the whole industry chain of heparin, the proportion of preparation can be improved in the future. From a business point of view, the company's revenue from API / preparation / CDMO in 2020 was 2.7billion yuan, 1.5billion yuan and 800million yuan respectively, an increase of 18.8%, 23.7% and 1.1% over the same period last year, the proportion of preparations increased from 2pp to 29%, and the annual gross profit margin of heparin API business was + 4.25%, driving the company's overall gross profit margin to increase 1.85pp. 1) the 21Q1 API business continues to be affected by the procurement rhythm of customers, with revenue of about 660 million yuan, a decline of about 13% compared with the same period last year. Mainly due to heparin crude drug prices remain high, gross profit margin has also declined, income and gross margin factors are expected to begin to improve in the late 21Q2, bringing short-term performance inflection point.
2) the logic of volume and price rise in preparation business continues to be realized, and the company's preparation sales and prices increased by about 13% and 10% respectively in 2020. In the future, it is expected to continuously increase its share in the standardized market and achieve rapid growth in the non-standard market and the domestic market. On the whole, the company insists on doing the whole industry chain business of deep heparin, and the proportion of preparation is expected to continue to improve.
Biological CDMO is affected by the epidemic in the short term and does not change the growth trend of long-term quality improvement. In 2020, the company's CDMO dual platform Saiwan Biology and SPL dual platforms still achieved growth under the adverse environment of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States, and the CDMO business was slightly lower than expected, mainly because the epidemic affected the progress of equipment replacement and maintenance and caused some delays in 20Q4 and 21Q1 orders. Production is expected to resume in 21Q2. Saiwan Biological increased its pDNA production capacity last year and expanded its business to the field of gene therapy. In the future, due to the rapid growth of the gene therapy research market, biological CDMO is still an important driving force for the company's future profit growth.
Layout of global First-in-class innovative drugs, open up the company's medium-and long-term growth space. Through investment, the company has laid out a number of innovative drug research and development areas with great demand for new treatments, such as tumor immunity, II diabetic complications and drug-resistant bacteria. Oregovomab, RVX208, AR-301 and other products have entered a critical clinical stage, and the company has the right to commercialize RVX208 and Oregovomab in Greater China, which is expected to open up the company's medium-and long-term growth space in the future.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 is 1.16 billion yuan, 1.46 billion yuan and 1.9 billion yuan respectively. Considering the change of equity, the corresponding EPS is 0.69,0.83,1.05 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 33,26,22 times. With the integration of heparin APIs and preparations, macromolecular CDMO+ innovative drugs open room for growth and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: enoxaparin preparation sales are not as expected, innovative drug research and development failure risk.