Relying on the high-quality salt gas resources in southwest China, we will create a leading platform for salt and chemical industry with cost advantages. At present, the company has developed into four business sectors: alkali, glyphosate, glass and methionine. With a scale of 1.1 million double tons per year, the company is the only soda ash manufacturer in Sichuan at present, and its soda products are basically non-competitive in the sales area. Soda downstream glass company is the regional glass sales leader, covering the rapid economic growth areas around Luzhou, and has 465 million tons / year of glass / smart special glass and 4.3 million tons / year of Low-E coated glass.
Glyphosate benefits from the high prosperity of agricultural products, and the performance of double glyphosate / glyphosate is very flexible. The company is the world's largest intermediate diglyphosate manufacturer, with a production capacity of 200000 tons and glyphosate production capacity of 50, 000 tons. The sales price of glyphosate increased by about 23.08% in April compared with the first quarter, benefiting from the booming demand for genetically modified soybeans and corn, and the impact of high supply in short supply, and crude drug prices are expected to continue to hit record highs.
Glass business cycle begins, soda ash rise is expected to contribute to performance elasticity. At present, the price of heavy alkali in East China has risen from 1475 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 1950 yuan / ton. The completion cycle superimposed photovoltaic cycle is expected to boost soda ash demand. The cumulative output of flat glass from January to March in 2021 is 247.72 million weight boxes, an increase of 8.6% over the same period last year, the highest level in history. The completion of the real estate in 2021 is expected to be further repaired, while the restrictions on new capacity of photovoltaic glass are relaxed, and the release of capacity will further increase the demand for soda ash to push up prices. The company has 1.1 million tons of soda ash and ammonium chloride each. Every 100 yuan / ton increase in soda ash price will increase the profit by about 96 million.
With deep technical reserves, open up photovoltaic glass to enter the photovoltaic field. Relying on the deep technical reserve in the glass industry and the expectation of the development prospect of the photovoltaic industry, the company plans to develop photovoltaic packaging materials and products projects in Chongqing, Leshan and Panzhihua. Chongqing 8GW photovoltaic packaging materials and products project, the first phase of 1000t/d photovoltaic glass panel, 900t/d photovoltaic glass backplane, 2GW photovoltaic module packaging project has been started, and is expected to be put into production in June 2022 and January 2023 respectively.
Profit forecast and investment rating. It is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 is 75.14,92.84 and 9.466 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of returning mother is 14.99,18.79 and 2.08 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price is only 11 times corresponding to PE. We judge that glyphosate and soda ash have a high probability of maintaining the boom this year, and propose to give 15 times PE, corresponding to the 6-month target market value of 22.485 billion yuan, to give "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: the main products decline, new project expansion is low expectations.
