Event Overview
The company announced that for the first quarter of 2021, 202Q1 achieved revenue of 1.016 billion yuan, an increase of 59.5% over the same period last year (estimated to be + 49% after excluding the impact of social security), and gross profit of 84 million yuan, an increase of 67.6% over the same period last year. Adjusted net profit 40 million yuan, year-on-year increase of 44%, gross profit margin of 8.3%, year-on-year increase in 0.4PCT (estimated to exclude the impact of social security + 0.9PCT), adjusted net profit rate of 3.9%, year-on-year decline in 0.4PCT (estimated + 0.8PCT to 4.2% after excluding foreign exchange gains and losses).
Analysis and judgment:
The number of flexible employees in 2021Q1 was 36372, an increase of 42.3% over the same period last year, of which the number from January to March was 36138Universe 34123. The number of employees affected by the Spring Festival holiday and job-hopping after employees received annual awards decreased during the off-season of business in February, but the number of people on duty quickly recovered to more than 36000 in the peak employment season in March. We estimate that the number of people will increase by about 1500 per month from April in 2021, and the target is expected to exceed 50,000 by the end of the year.
The key points in the future are: (1) to strengthen the advantage of key customers to generate income while expanding new vertical areas, especially the community e-commerce sector, which is in urgent need of talents, is a breakthrough point for future performance increment. This track not only has a continuous demand for talents, but also has a large turnover rate, and personnel are scattered in various outlets, so personnel management is more difficult than information audit and customer service positions, so the gross profit margin is relatively higher. (2) strengthen technical advantages and improve efficiency, and upgrade Ruiyun and Ruifei systems. Ruiyun realizes: 1) online automatic payroll calculation to further improve the human efficiency of the compensation team; 2) flexible remote management of employment projects, timely communication of project issues between regional center director / COE and outsourced patrol site. Ruifei realization: automatically retrieve the keywords about job search intention in the conversation between project manager and job seeker, and the backstage pushes suitable positions according to the keywords, so as to improve the per capita efficiency of the recruitment team. (3) increase the number of IT talents, flexible and high-end employment: the IT talent outsourcing department was established in September 2020, and 10 customers have been added in 2020. On the basis of the establishment of IT talent recruitment teams in North China, West China, Central China and other regional centers, IT talent recruitment teams will be further set up in the Group, South China and East China on the basis of the establishment of IT talent recruitment teams in North China, West China, Central China and other regional centers. At the same time, through the "partner Entrepreneurship Plan", we will attract more managers with experience in IT talent outsourcing services to join Renrui, and plan to invest in 1 or 2 IT talent community platform companies to expand candidate resources.
Investment suggestion
Maintain the company's estimated 2021-23 revenue of 40.3 billion RMB 540,000,993 million, adjusted net profit of 2.5 billion RMB, give 25 times PE corresponding to reasonable market capitalization of 6.2 billion RMB, target price of 47.50 Hong Kong dollars (HK $1 = 0.84 yuan). It is optimistic that the company will have flexible employment and high growth of BPO business in the future, and maintain its "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, the unstable growth rate of the new economy industry, and the implementation of the company's strategy is not up to expectations.