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美股跌完港股跌?美团、京东“接棒”科技股回调

Are US stocks falling and Hong Kong stocks falling? Meituan and JD “take over” the pullback in technology stocks

Wind ·  May 11, 2021 11:30

Source: Wind

At the opening of trading on May 11, Hong Kong technology companies generally pulled back. Meituan and JD.com fell by more than 6%, JD.com and NetEase, Inc fell by more than 5%, BABA and Tencent also fell by more than 3%, and Hang Seng Technology fell by more than 4%.

It is worth noting that Hong Kong stocks took over the "callback baton" of US technology companies at the start of trading. The Nasdaq composite index fell more than 2% overnight, and the market value of the five technology giants FAAMG lost $1.7 trillion. As for US-listed stocks, Pinduoduo fell more than 9 per cent overnight, while Bilibili Inc. and JD.com both fell more than 5 per cent.

From a news perspective, recently, both Chinese and US technology giants are facing regulatory risks. Prior to this, the Shanghai Consumer Protection Commission interviewed Meituan on the protection of consumers' rights and interests. In the United States, antitrust has become the "sword of Damocles" hanging over the technology giants. Goldman Sachs Group said frankly: compared with antitrust investigations, inflation and tax increases are "secondary issues" for technology giants.

Meituan and Pinduoduo were interviewed.

On the evening of May 10, the Shanghai Municipal Consumer Protection Commission released news that before and after May Day, Shanghai consumer market complaints were generally stable, but at the same time, online platform consumer disputes were relatively concentrated. On the afternoon of the 10th, we interviewed Meituan and Pinduoduo and pointed out the outstanding problems in the protection of consumers' rights and interests.

The Shanghai Consumer Protection Commission said that Meituan's main problems are: first, the refund caused by the cancellation of orders; second, the non-performance of ordering and delivering meals and fresh vegetables; and third, the problem of misleading consumers on the page.

Pinduoduo's main problems: first, the quality of goods; second, counterfeit infringement; third, forced cancellation of orders; fourth, false delivery; fifth, after-sales service; sixth, the problem of customer bargaining.

Zhao Dan, an Internet analyst at Puyin, said that Meituan's valuation will still face some pressure before the penalty results fall to the ground. Meituan may face a penalty of 40 to 5 billion yuan. Under the background of stricter anti-monopoly policy, the expansion of the company in the community e-commerce may slow down, and the competition pattern of the industry is still uncertain in a short period of time.

The analyst said that he is optimistic about its long-term layout in community e-commerce to create new traffic entrances after catering takeout, but the short-term competition is fierce and it is difficult to make a profit, which may put pressure on the company's annual profit margin.

Antitrust regulation becomes the "number one risk" of science and technology stocks.

On the u. S. stock market, a general correction by overnight technology companies sent the s & p 500 down more than 1%. Goldman Sachs Group analyst said that the correction of the technology giant "FAAMG" will bring risks to the market. They say such stocks account for 21% of the index, higher than the historical average of 14%.

While the prospect of a slowdown in US economic activity underpins the outperformance of large tech stocks and the "remarkable" growth of the tech giants looks set to continue, analysts led by David Kostin point out that some headwinds are coming.

They say President Joe Biden's plan to raise corporate and capital gains tax rates poses a potential risk to FAAMG.

Specifically, the proposed 28 per cent corporate tax will reduce FAAMG's earnings by 9 per cent than widely expected, after which the US government is likely to nearly double the capital gains tax on wealthy Americans, which could trigger a sell-off later this year.

"if capital gains tax is raised in 2022, investors affected by higher tax rates may choose to achieve some sizeable capital gains at lower current tax rates in 2021," analysts said. "

They point out that FAAMG shares have appreciated by $5 trillion over the past five years, accounting for 29% of the market capitalization of the S & P 500 over the same period.

The valuation multiples of these tech giants also pose risks, and the possibility of higher yields in the coming months is also a disadvantage. Goldman Sachs Group's interest rate strategist expects the yield on 10-year Treasuries to rise to 1.9 per cent by the end of the year. With yields rising sharply from November to March, FAAMG underperformed the S & P 500 by 7 percentage points (+ 21% vs + 14%). If yields continue to rise in the second half of 2021, it could hamper FAAMG's returns.

But these are dwarfed by what Goldman Sachs Group analysts call "the biggest threat"-antitrust regulation.

"with the exception of Microsoft Corp, the other four companies face a long list of lawsuits and investigations into their market power and competitive practices, ranging from commercial lawsuits to antitrust lawsuits from the Ministry of Justice (DOJ) and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to congressional investigations," they said. But they added that their relative valuations remained stable, meaning antitrust actions did not have a significant impact.

Edit / lydia

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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