Macroeconomic news

PPI rose 6.8% year on year in April, and the impact of commodity price increases was obvious; CPI rose 0.9% year on year, and the year-on-year increase increased

富途資訊 · May 11, 2021 09:35

2021年4月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨6.8%，环比上涨0.9%；工业生产者购进价格同比上涨9.0%，环比上涨1.3%。1—4月平均，工业生产者出厂价格比去年同期上涨3.3%，工业生产者购进价格上涨4.3%。

2021年4月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.9%。其中，城市上涨1.0%，农村上涨0.7%；食品价格下降0.7%，非食品价格上涨1.3%；消费品价格上涨1.0%，服务价格上涨0.7%。1—4月平均，全国居民消费价格比去年同期上涨0.2%。

4月份，全国居民消费价格环比下降0.3%。其中，城市下降0.2%，农村下降0.5%；食品价格下降2.4%，非食品价格上涨0.2%；消费品价格下降0.7%，服务价格上涨0.4%。4月，从同比看，猪肉价格下降21.4%，降幅比上月扩大3.0个百分点。

国家统计局城市司高级统计师董莉娟解读2021年4月份CPI和PPI数据

一、CPI环比降幅收窄，同比涨幅扩大

4月份，国内消费需求继续恢复，物价运行总体平稳。从环比看，CPI下降0.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点。其中，食品价格下降2.4%，降幅收窄1.2个百分点，影响CPI下降约0.45个百分点。

食品中，随着生猪生产持续恢复，加之消费需求有所回落，猪肉价格继续下降11.0%；鲜菜和鲜果上市量增加，价格分别下降8.8%和3.8%；受供给减少及饲料成本上涨等因素影响，淡水鱼价格上涨9.8%。非食品价格上涨0.2%，涨幅与上月相同，影响CPI上涨约0.19个百分点。

非食品中，疫情防控形势较好叠加节日因素影响，居民出行大幅增加，飞机票、旅行社收费、交通工具租赁费和宾馆住宿价格分别上涨21.6%、5.3%、4.3%和3.9%；受原材料价格上涨影响，电冰箱、洗衣机、电视机、笔记本电脑和自行车等工业消费品价格均有上涨，涨幅在0.6%—1.0%之间。

从同比看，CPI上涨0.9%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点。其中，食品价格下降0.7%，降幅与上月相同，影响CPI下降约0.14个百分点。

食品中，猪肉价格下降21.4%，降幅比上月扩大3.0个百分点；鸡肉和鸭肉价格分别下降8.0%和2.0%，降幅均收窄0.6个百分点；淡水鱼、羊肉和牛肉价格分别上涨26.4%、9.4%和4.1%，鸡蛋和食用植物油价格分别上涨8.6%和8.4%，涨幅均有扩大。

非食品价格上涨1.3%，涨幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点，影响CPI上涨约1.05个百分点。非食品中，飞机票、汽油和柴油价格分别上涨26.9%、20.1%和21.9%，文化娱乐服务和教育服务价格分别上涨2.2%和2.0%，文娱耐用消费品和大型家用器具价格分别上涨1.0%和0.1%。

据测算，在4月份0.9%的同比涨幅中，去年价格变动的翘尾影响约为0.1个百分点，而上月为-0.6个百分点；新涨价影响约为0.8个百分点，比上月回落0.2个百分点。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点。

二、PPI环比涨幅回落，同比涨幅扩大

4月份，国内工业生产稳定恢复，铁矿石、有色金属等国际大宗商品价格上行，生产领域价格继续上涨。从环比看，PPI上涨0.9%，涨幅比上月回落0.7个百分点。其中，生产资料价格上涨1.2%，涨幅回落0.8个百分点；生活资料价格上涨0.1%，回落0.1个百分点。PPI环比涨幅回落主要受石油和有色金属行业价格涨幅回落影响。

国际原油价格波动下行，带动国内石油相关行业价格涨幅回落或转降，其中石油和天然气开采业价格上涨0.4%，涨幅回落9.4个百分点；化学原料和化学制品制造业价格上涨2.1%，涨幅回落3.2个百分点；石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业价格由上月上涨5.7%转为下降0.9%。

国际市场铜、铝等有色金属价格虽继续上涨，但涨势有所趋缓，国内有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨2.1%，涨幅回落2.4个百分点。此外，受需求增加和铁矿石等原材料成本上升影响，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨5.6%，涨幅扩大0.9个百分点。

从同比看，PPI上涨6.8%，涨幅比上月扩大2.4个百分点。其中，生产资料价格上涨9.1%，涨幅扩大3.3个百分点；生活资料价格上涨0.3%，扩大0.2个百分点。

受去年同期对比基数较低影响，主要行业价格涨幅均有所扩大，其中石油和天然气开采业上涨85.8%，扩大62.1个百分点；黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业上涨30.0%，扩大8.5个百分点；有色金属冶炼和压延加工业上涨26.9%，扩大5.6个百分点；石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业上涨23.8%，扩大9.9个百分点；化学原料和化学制品制造业上涨17.5%，扩大6.1个百分点；煤炭开采和洗选业上涨13.3%，扩大6.4个百分点。

据测算，在4月份6.8%的同比涨幅中，去年价格变动的翘尾影响约为2.5个百分点，比上月扩大1.5个百分点；新涨价影响约为4.3个百分点，扩大0.9个百分点。

编辑/Ray

In April 2021, national industrial producer prices rose 6.8% from a year earlier, up 0.9% from a month earlier, and industrial producer purchase prices rose 9.0% from a year earlier, up 1.3% from a month earlier. From January to April, the average ex-factory price of industrial producers rose 3.3% over the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers rose 4.3%.

In April 2021, consumer prices across the country rose 0.9% from a year earlier. Of this total, urban prices rose by 1.0%, rural areas by 0.7%, food prices by 0.7%, non-food prices by 1.3%, consumer goods prices by 1.0%, and service prices by 0.7%. From January to April, consumer prices across the country rose 0.2 percent over the same period last year.

In April, consumer prices across the country fell 0.3% from the previous month. Of this total, urban prices fell by 0.2%, rural areas by 0.5%, food prices by 2.4%, non-food prices by 0.2%, consumer prices by 0.7%, and service prices by 0.4%. In April, pork prices fell 21.4% from a year earlier, an increase of 3.0 percentage points over the previous month.

Dong Lijuan, Senior statistician of City Department of National Bureau of Statistics, interprets CPI and PPI data of April 2021

I. the month-on-month decline in CPI has narrowed, while the year-on-year increase has expanded.

In April, domestic consumer demand continued to recover, and prices were generally stable. On a month-on-month basis, CPI fell 0.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than last month. Of this total, food prices fell 2.4 percent, narrowing the decline by 1.2 percentage points, and affecting CPI by about 0.45 percent.

In food, as pig production continues to recover and consumer demand falls somewhat, pork prices continue to fall by 11.0%.The number of fresh vegetables and fruits on the market increased, and prices fell by 8.8% and 3.8% respectively. Due to factors such as reduced supply and rising feed costs, the price of freshwater fish rose 9.8%. Non-food prices rose 0.2%, the same as last month, affecting CPI to rise by about 0.19%.

In non-food, the situation of epidemic prevention and control was better and affected by holiday factors, and residents' travel increased significantly. Air tickets, travel agency fees, transport rental fees and hotel accommodation prices increased by 21.6%, 5.3%, 4.3% and 3.9%, respectively. Affected by the rise in the price of raw materials, the prices of industrial consumer goods such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, laptops and bicycles have all risen, with an increase of between 0.6% and 1.0%.

On a year-on-year basis, CPI rose 0.9%, an increase of 0.5% over the previous month. Of this total, food prices fell 0.7 percent, the same rate as last month, affecting CPI by about 0.14 percent.

In food, the price of pork fell 21.4%, an increase of 3.0% over the previous month; the price of chicken and duck fell 8.0% and 2.0% respectively, narrowing the decline by 0.6%; the prices of freshwater fish, mutton and beef rose 26.4%, 9.4% and 4.1% respectively, and the prices of eggs and edible vegetable oil rose 8.6% and 8.4% respectively.

Non-food prices rose 1.3%, an increase of 0.6% over the previous month, affecting CPI to rise by about 1.05%. Among non-food items, the prices of air tickets, gasoline and diesel oil rose 26.9%, 20.1% and 21.9% respectively, the prices of cultural and recreational services and educational services rose 2.2% and 2.0% respectively, and the prices of cultural and recreational consumer durables and large household appliances rose 1.0% and 0.1% respectively.

It is estimated that of the 0.9 per cent year-on-year increase in April, the tail impact of price changes last year was about 0.1 percentage points, compared with-0.6 percentage points last month, while the impact of new price increases was about 0.8 percentage points, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.7 per cent from a year earlier, up 0.4 per cent from the previous month.

Second, the month-on-month growth rate of PPI has dropped, and the year-on-year increase has expanded.

4In April, domestic industrial production resumed steadily, the prices of international commodities such as iron ore and non-ferrous metals rose, and prices in the production sector continued to rise. On a month-on-month basis, PPI rose 0.9%, down 0.7% from the previous month.Of this total, the prices of the means of production rose 1.2 percent, down 0.8 percentage points, while the prices of means of subsistence rose 0.1 percent, down 0.1 percentage points. The month-on-month decline in PPI is mainly affected by the decline in price increases in the oil and non-ferrous metals industries.

The downward fluctuation of international crude oil prices led to a decline in price increases in domestic oil-related industries, of which the prices of the oil and natural gas mining industry rose 0.4 percent, down 9.4 percentage points; the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products rose 2.1 percent, down 3.2 percentage points; and the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries fell 0.9 percent from 5.7 percent last month.

Although the prices of copper, aluminum and other non-ferrous metals in the international market continued to rise, the rise slowed somewhat. The price of the domestic non-ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing industry rose 2.1%, down 2.4 percentage points. In addition, affected by the increase in demand and the rising cost of raw materials such as iron ore, the prices of ferrous metal smelting and Calendering industries rose 5.6%, or 0.9 percentage points.

Compared with the same period last year, PPI rose 6.8%, an increase of 2.4% over the previous month. Of this total, the prices of the means of production rose 9.1 percent, or 3.3 percentage points, while the prices of the means of subsistence rose 0.3 percent, or 0.2 percentage points.

Affected by the low base of comparison in the same period last year, price increases in major industries have expanded.Of this total, the oil and natural gas mining industry increased by 85.8%, expanding by 62.1%; the ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing industry increased by 30.0%, or 8.5%; the non-ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing industry increased by 26.9%, or 5.6%; and the oil, coal and other fuel processing industries increased by 23.8%, an increase of 9.9%. The manufacturing industry of chemical raw materials and chemical products rose 17.5 percent, or 6.1 percentage points, while the coal mining and washing industry rose 13.3 percent, or 6.4 percentage points.

It is estimated that of the 6.8% year-on-year increase in April, the tail impact of last year's price changes was about 2.5 percentage points, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the previous month, while the impact of new price increases was about 4.3 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points.

Edit / Ray

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