Event description
2021Q1 achieved revenue of 6.89 billion (+ 26.2%), net profit of 270 million (+ 42.0%), net profit of 270 million (+ 37.7%), net interest rate of 7.1% (- 1.4pct) and net interest rate of 3.9% (+ 0.4pct).
Event comment
The high gross profit margin fell, but the increase in revenue and the decline in the ratio of taxes and fees contributed to the increase in net profit. 2021Q1's revenue also increased by 26.2%, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in development business settlement resources and the increase in operating income from property holdings.
The company's gross profit margin fell with the high trend of the industry, and the 2021Q1 comprehensive gross profit margin both fell 13.4pct to 30.3%. Although the gross profit margin decreased significantly, the growth rate of return net profit (+ 42.0%) was still higher than that of revenue (+ 26.2%). The main reason is that after the decline of project profitability, the tax and additional tax rates are reduced by 5.5pct to 4.9%, the expense rate is also reduced by 3.6% to 12.2%, and the income tax rate is reduced by 4.6pct to 45.2%. The profit and loss share of minority shareholders fell by 13.8pct to 45.1%, while the tax-fee ratio and minority shareholders' profit-loss ratio decreased so that the growth rate of homed net profit was higher than that of revenue, and the homed net interest rate also increased by 0.4pct to 3.9%. As of the 2021Q1 statement, the total amount of accounts received in advance is 39.73 billion (an increase of 3.8% over the end of 2020), and the amount of accounts received in advance / annualized revenue is 99.6%, effectively ensuring the settlement of this year's income.
Carey data shows that 2021Q1 sales are positive and plans to open six new commercial projects this year. According to Carey data, 2021Q1 has sales of 13.16 billion yuan (+ 93.5%). It may meet the sales target of 100 billion this year, with a sales area of 587,000 square meters (+ 196.5%) and an average sales price of 22419 yuan per square meter (- 34.7%). The average price has dropped or is in line with the sinking strategy of urban layout in recent years. By the end of 2020, the total salable value of the company's land reserves is 246 billion, with a sales cycle of 3.5 years and rich reserves. In 2020, the company has opened 10 Dayue City + 1 Chunfeng Li + 1 Xiangyun Town + 3 managed export projects, with a rentable area of 90.8 million square meters (excluding light assets projects, + 48,000 square meters) and a rental rate of 93.9% (- 3.1pct). At the end of 2020, the company is planning to build 14 self-supporting commercial projects, and 6 are expected to open in 2021, ushering in the concentrated opening period of commercial projects.
The debt structure is optimized, and the three red line indicators are in the "yellow file". 2021Q1's interest-bearing debt is 72.49 billion, up 1.9% from the end of 2020, and short-term debt accounts for 23.5%, down 2.3 pct from the end of 2020. 2021Q1's net debt ratio is 85.4% (- 20.5pct), cash short-debt ratio = 1.9X (excluding restricted funds), asset-liability ratio excluding accounts received in advance is 72.0% (- 0.8pct), the three red line indicators are in the "yellow file".
Investment suggestion: 2020 may be the bottom stage of performance, pay attention to the marginal improvement of performance in the later stage. The year 2020 may be the bottom stage of the company's performance, and in the later stage, with the increase in the rent of the held property and the settlement of the high-quality land taken under the dual-platform model, the performance may usher in a marginal improvement. however, we still need to be vigilant against the risk of a decline in the gross profit margin of the development business and provision for asset impairment. It is forecast that the net profit from mother in 2021-2023 is 16.4 billion, 19.9% and 14.4%, respectively, and the growth rate in 2022-2023 is 21.9% and 14.4%, corresponding to 9.6 pm, 7.8pm and 6.9X, which is rated as "overweight".
Risk hint
1. Gross profit margin of development business has fallen sharply
two。 Provision for large impairment losses on assets
3. The opening speed of the shopping center is not as fast as expected.