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市场继续开闸放水 摩根大通对通货再膨胀加倍下注

新浪財經 ·  May 9, 2021 06:15

Obviously, the US economy is not strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to reduce its stimulus measures, so star tech stocks will continue to rise. Any effort to save the economy is likely to pushQualcommInflation, which means banks and airlines will benefit from it.

This is the unshakeable logic that underpins the US stock market in May 2021. Nearly 14 months have passed since the pandemic swept the market and left 8 million jobs vacant in the US labor market. ForJ.P. MorganAccording to strategists, now is not the time to doubt the stock market.

Anyone hoping for confirmation only needs to recall the reaction of the US employment report on Friday when it experienced the biggest drop in history. Small cap stocks soared after US President Joe Biden used last Friday's data as a reason for his multi-trillion dollar financial aid plan.NASDAQThe 100 Index also rose. Investors believe that April's employment data means that the Federal Reserve will not turn off the faucet in the short term, but will maintain low interest rates and help maintain extremely high tech stock valuations.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, said:

“Household stocks and technology stocks will receive some popularity, but I think this is more of a short-term phenomenon. Large-scale cyclical stocks will continue to take over the baton in the next few months.”

The governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Kashkari also expressed the same opinion. He said that Friday's report confirmed that policymakers will not change anything based on economic forecasts, but on actual data.

All sectors of the S&P 500 index then rose, and technology stocks competed with cyclical energy and industrial stocks for the top spot. The Russell 1000 Value Index and Growth Index both closed up 0.8% on Friday, after the index outperformed the market on a daily basis this week.

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan strategists, led by Kolanovic, are increasing their bets on re-inflation deals. Just a few days ago, Kolanovic warned that many fund managers needed to quickly change their deflationary strategies or risk an “inflationary shock.” He advised investors to reduce their cash holdingsand credit, using this money to buy commodities and stocks.

In a report on Friday, Kolanovic and his colleagues wrote:

“We expect inflation to rise strongly this year. Markets may be slow to recognize this and are not fully prepared.”

“The increase in global prosperityNagawaThe huge price bottleneck pressure should keep inflation on an upward trajectory, yet most central banks remain committed to their very relaxed stance and wait and see if inflation rises.”

Despite people's hopelessness about inflation, the latest batch of quarterly reports shows that inflation has already appeared. Faced with rising prices of all commodities such as timber, oil, labor, and computer chips, CEOs are cutting costs and raising product prices.

According to the data, the revenue growth rate of S&P 500 index constituent stock companies in the first quarter was 5 times the sales growth rate. Based on actual results and analysts' expectations of unannounced results, profit may soar to an all-time high of $48.21 per share. This is 13% higher than the record of $42.79 set in 2018.

The next test of optimism about the stock market is the inflation data to be released on Wednesday. The data is expected to show that the annual increase in price pressure will reach its highest level since 2011. However, since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell once said that the Fed will need to see a “series” of strong data before changing its position, the lack of employment data for April may be a big enough blow to keep them on the sidelines.

Investment strategy analyst Ross Mayfield said, “This provides a reason for the Fed not to discuss reducing the scale of debt purchases or considering raising interest rates, which generally supports the stock market.”

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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