Core ideas:
The total profit affected by excluding Baowo in the past 20 years was 1.83 billion yuan, an increase of 2.43 billion yuan over the same period last year. According to the financial report, in the past 20 years, the company achieved operating income of 57.77 billion yuan, an increase of 23.0% over the same period last year, a total profit of 90 million yuan, an increase of 254.4% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 155 million yuan, a decrease of 19.3% over the same period last year. Excluding the related influence of Baowo, the company realized a total profit of 1.83 billion yuan, an increase of 2.43 billion yuan. In 21 years, Q1 Company realized operating income of 15.87 billion yuan, an increase of 72.0% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 370 million yuan, an increase of 670 million yuan over the same period last year.
Over the past 20 years, the operating net cash flow has exceeded expectations, and the strategy and product layout are ready to start. 20 years is the end of the company's "three-year Action Plan". The company has successfully completed the focus on commercial vehicles, transformed from a scale expansion development model to a lean value growth model, and improved profitability. To achieve valuable and quality growth and other goals, the company continues to emphasize "differential competition" and "lean management" in the 21-year business plan. In 21 years, Q1 company sold 11.9 and 71000 light and heavy trucks respectively, an increase of 56% and 118% over the same period last year, and continued to maintain a leading position in the market share of light trucks.
At the end of the first quarter of 21, interest-bearing debt / total invested capital fell to 30.9%, the lowest in 16 years, and the company's operating net cash flow reached 8.68 billion yuan in 20 years, a record high. We believe that Bowo's overall impact is manageable, while benefiting from light truck supply-side reforms, increased AMT penetration and Mercedes-Benz new car cycle, the company's performance is highly resilient.
Investment suggestion: the company has the first market share in the light truck industry for many years, and the market share of medium and heavy trucks ranks in the top five. Mastering the core technology of the industrial chain, the strategic focus on commercial vehicles + the company's strong competitiveness in the commercial vehicle business helps to improve the company's profitability rapidly. Although there is some uncertainty in Baowo impairment factors, it does not affect the company's long-term value. We estimate the company's net asset per share for 21-23 years to be 2.47 PB per share, 2.66 for each share and 1.25 times the PB for 21-23 based on the latest closing price. Combined with the industry average and the company's historical PB level, we value the company at 2.0 times PB for 21 years, with a fair value of 4.93 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: intensified competition in the industry; transfer of Bowo's remaining equity, risk of recovery of shareholders' loans, etc.