Profit tends to repair, focus on the realization of value-added business
In 2020, the company's return net profit was 1.52 billion yuan, down 5.1% from the same period last year, mainly due to a significant decline in subsidies caused by the epidemic; from a quarterly point of view, 4Q20/1Q21 's profits were gradually restored to before the epidemic. We forecast that the company's EPS in 21-22-23 will be 0.53 apiece 0.62 PE, and the target price will be lowered to 7.22 yuan to maintain the "buy" rating for Chuanhua Logistics / Chuanhua Chemical Co., Ltd.
The subsidy dropped significantly due to the epidemic.
In 2020, the company achieved revenue of 21.64 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7% over the same period last year; gross profit margin of 13.0%, down 0.7 pct from the same period last year; and net profit of 1.52 billion yuan, down 5.1% from the same period last year, lower than our previous forecast of 2.09 billion yuan, mainly due to a 51% year-on-year drop in highway and port subsidies to 560 million yuan. 4Q20Universe 1Q21, the company achieved an income of 70.9%, 7.1 billion yuan, an increase of 40.3%, 98.0%, and a net profit of 8.6% / 140 million yuan, an increase of 10.5%, 823.7% over the same period last year, and the main business continued to repair.
Optimize the layout of highway ports and tap the potential of value-added
By the end of the 20th, the company operated 63 highway ports, with an annual property rental rate of 88% (year-on-year + 1.5pct); 9871 enterprises settled in the highway port; the annual vehicle flow reached 41.25 million, an increase of 34% over the same period last year; the turnover of the platform in the port reached 63.1 billion yuan, an increase of 28.5% over the same period last year; tax payment reached 2.129 billion yuan, an increase of 28.8% over the same period last year. Relying on the gathering resources in the port, the company deeply excavates the value of value-added business. The revenue of the car-back business is 5.026 billion yuan for the whole year, down 6.68% from the same period last year. Nine gas stations are operated and five are under construction.
Focus on the realization of added value and maintain the "buy" rating
The company's value-added business is under pressure, and we downgrade our EPS forecast for 22nd year to 0.53 RMB 0.62 yuan (previous value:
0.67pm 0.68 yuan), and introduced 23-year EPS to predict 0.68 yuan. We estimate that the 21-year return net profit of Chuanhua Logistics and Chuanhua Chemical will be 1.62 billion yuan respectively; comparable Transportation Infrastructure / Dye Company has a consistent forecast of PE 14.5 Wind 11.2x for 21 years, taking into account the subsidy factor to give Chuanhua Logistics 21-year 14.0xPE (discount 3%), Chuanhua Chemical 21-year 8x PE (28% discount), update the target price to 7.22 yuan (previous value: 8.15 yuan), and maintain the "Buy" rating.
Risk tips: macro risk, subsidy policy slope, highway and port development and operation risk, market competition.