Event: the company released the annual report in 2010. during the reporting period, the operating income was 71.511 billion yuan, + 0.8% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother was 7.501 billion yuan,-17.8% compared with the same period last year.
The delay in carrying forward led to a decline in net profit and the gross profit margin of the real estate business remained high. The decline in the company's return net profit in the current period is mainly due to the lagging carry-over of real estate and the relatively large impact of regulation and control around Beijing. In terms of profit margin, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 27.8% during the period, year-on-year-2.3pct. Gross profit margin is a common problem faced by the industry, in which the gross profit margin of the real estate business recorded 28.7% (year-on-year-0.92pct). The gross profit margin of the current period is relatively small and the absolute level is relatively high, thanks to the low floor price / current sales price of the new projects in 2017-18, which are 20.3% and 22.2%, respectively. The net interest rate of returning to the mother was 10.5%,-2.4 pct compared with the same period last year, and the contract liability was 83.748 billion yuan at the end of the period,-5.9% from the same period last year, covering 1.17 times the revenue in 2020. In terms of expense rate, the three fees / revenue during the period is 8.4%, year-on-year + 0.7pct, sales fee / revenue is 7.1%, year-on-year + 0.7pct, and financial expenses / revenue is 1.3%, which is the same as the previous period. The company's dividend per share for the current period is 0.35 yuan, the dividend ratio is 20.29%, and the corresponding dividend yield is maintained at 5%, which is at a high level.
Sales increased steadily and the land was prudent, and the property sector was spun off and listed in January. During the period, the company realized sales of 127.097 billion yuan, + 10.2% compared with the same period last year, and completed 105.04% of the plan at the beginning of the year, of which the second line, third and fourth lines accounted for 37.3% and 62.7% respectively, and the proportion around the Bohai Sea, the Yangtze River Delta and the central region were 39.6%, 39.1% and 14.1% respectively. The company's 2021 target sales amount is 130 billion yuan (compared with the actual sales of this period + 2.3%). Achieve sales area of 1174.45 million square meters, + 7.0% year-on-year; achieve average sales price of 10822 yuan / flat, + 3.0% year-on-year. In terms of land acquisition, the company took 714.57 million square meters of land during the period,-27.9% compared with the same period last year; the amount of land acquired was 28.161 billion yuan,-6.8% compared with the same period last year; the floor price was 3941 yuan / flat, + 29.4% year-on-year; the amount of land obtained / sales was 22.2%, year-on-year-4.0pct; and the average floor price / sales price was 36.4%, year-on-year + 7.4pct. In terms of start-up and completion, the start-up area was 964.13 square meters, + 2.1% compared with the same period last year, and the planned completion rate was 104.12%; the completed area was 695.8 square meters, + 10.0% compared with the same period last year, and the planned completion rate was 78.42%. For the rest of the business, the property sector achieved revenue of 1.807 billion yuan, year-on-year + 41.0%, home net profit of 264 million yuan, year-on-year + 132.9%, managed area of 5970.0 million square meters, year-on-year + 18.7%, contract area of 8057.3 million square meters, year-on-year + 4.0%, joint management ratio 1.35. In January 2021, the company spun off the property sector and listed on Hong Kong stocks; the Kangyu sector achieved revenue of 5.729 billion yuan,-3.0% compared with the same period last year, ranking sixth in China's annual influential culture and tourism development in 2020; and the industrial park sector achieved revenue of 5.362 billion yuan, + 58.6% year-on-year, and net profit of 725 million yuan, + 13.6% year-on-year.
The three red lines are temporarily in the yellow file, and the debt structure is optimized obviously. In terms of the three red lines, the company's asset-liability ratio (excluding advance receipts) is 73.78%, net debt ratio is 80.18%, cash short-debt ratio is 1.23, and the three red lines are temporarily in the yellow file. From the perspective of interest-bearing liability structure, the proportion of short-term debt is 31.8%, which is-21.0% compared with the same period last year, and the proportion of long-term debt is 68.2%. The structure of long-term and short-term debt is greatly optimized.
Investment advice: maintain the company's buy rating, taking into account the decline in profitability and the lower-than-expected settlement pace, downgrade the company's EPS in 2021-22 to 2.00 shock 2.13 yuan, respectively, and estimate that the PE corresponding to EPS2.28, in 2023 will be 2.70 times that of 3.07 PE.
Risk hints: there are repeated uncertainties in the epidemic; performance forecasts and valuation judgments are not up to expectations.