The real estate service provider of the whole industry chain benefits from the leader of the stock era, and maintains the "buy" rating company as the real estate service provider of the whole industry chain, and the brokerage, asset management and new housing consignment business develop in coordination. In view of the great certainty of the downward growth rate of sales of real estate enterprises, brokerage, asset management and other businesses are affected; we downgrade the 2021-2022 profit forecast and add the 2023 profit forecast. It is estimated that the 2021-2023 net profit is 5.9,6.8 and 790 million yuan (before 2021-2022), the EPS is 0.25,0.29,0.34 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponds to 15.1, 13.1 and 11.2 times the PE respectively. The company's fundamentals remain sound, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Many factors affect the performance in 2020. The company released the 2020 annual report in the first quarter of 2021 and the quarterly report in 2021. The operating income in 2020 was 9.575 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.6% compared with the same period last year. The net profit returned to the home was 312 million yuan, down 62.3% from the same period last year. Asset management, brokerage business and new housing business accounted for 17.1%, 54.7% and 17.9%, respectively. The decline in performance is due to: (1) the epidemic caused substantial losses in brokerage and asset management business in the first quarter, with a loss of 163 million yuan in a single quarter; the annual income growth rates of asset management, brokerage business and new housing business were-12.5%,-8.4% and-9.8%, respectively; (2) the comprehensive gross profit margin was 26.2%, down 4.4% from the same period last year, and more digital investment at the same time. (3) the total amount of asset impairment and credit impairment is 106 million yuan. In the first quarter of 2021, the company's revenue and return net profit increased by 129.8% and 205.3% respectively, and the business performance improved significantly.
The annual GTV is about 400 billion yuan, with continuous efforts to join the model.
In terms of brokerage business, the company's second-hand housing business income in 2020 was 5.241 billion yuan, down 8.36% from the same period last year; the number of transactions was about 91,000, basically the same as the same period last year. The company continues to cultivate, with direct stores in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Suzhou growing by 2.4% compared with the same period last year; at the same time, the franchise business has expanded to 15 cities, with more than 1300 contracted stores; it plans to join cities to 29 cities in 2021, with 2100 contracted stores. The company's new house business income is 1.718 billion yuan, with nearly 2200 items available for sale per month, an increase of 9.4% over the same period last year.
Digital investment is beginning to show results, and its own traffic is rising year by year.
The total number of active users of the company's official website reached 128 million in 2020, an increase of 24.3% over the same period last year; brought 2.94 million business opportunities, an increase of 74% over the same period last year; contributed to 963,000 transactions, accounting for 24.6% of the commission contribution; and its own traffic increased year by year, with an average MAU of 10.67 million in 2020 and continued to rise to 16.38 million in the first quarter.
Risk tips: industry sales have fallen sharply; mortgage rates have risen sharply; and real estate policies have been tightened.