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亚厦股份(002375):业绩符合预期 看好后续盈利能力逐步修复

Asha shares (002375): the performance is in line with expectations and is optimistic about the follow-up profitability to be repaired step by step.

天風證券 ·  Apr 30, 2021 00:00

The performance is in line with expectations, the cash flow continues to improve, and the "overweight" rating company releases its 20-year annual report and 21-year quarterly report. The 20-year revenue is 10.79 billion yuan, which is + 0.02% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is 320 million yuan,-25.4% compared with the same period last year. Deducting non-homing net profit from the same period of last year-28.5% The decrease in income was basically the same as that of profits, mainly due to the increase in the provision for bad debts in the current period and the return of nearly 19 million yuan in settlement compensation from Wanan Intelligence. The net inflow of CFO in the past 20 years was 550 million yuan, + 29.3% compared with the same period last year. 21Q1 achieved revenue of 1.93 billion yuan, year-on-year + 30.6%, home net profit of 69 million yuan, year-on-year + 25.6%, compared with 19Q1 income / return net profit year-on-year-2.0% Mather 17.0%, short-term operating pressure, but we believe that with the upswing of the assembly decoration industry, sufficient on-hand orders are expected to provide growth momentum for performance growth and maintain the "overweight" rating.

20Q4 revenue acceleration profit pressure, 21Q1 orders achieve high growth 20Q1-4 single-quarter revenue growth rate-25.0% Universe 12.8% Universe 10.0% Universe 17.4%, homed net profit growth rate-30.9% Universe 35.3% Universe 11.2% Acceleration 43.8% Moore 20Q4 revenue acceleration, but profit growth still declines sharply. According to the type of business, the revenue from the five main businesses of architectural decoration / curtain wall decoration / intelligent system integration / sales of decorative products / design contract is-2.4% Universe 3.0% Universe 6.1% Universe 20.4% Compact 6.6% compared with the same period last year. In the past 20 years, the company achieved 16.2 billion yuan in newly signed orders, 4.893 billion yuan in newly signed orders + 11.5% compared with the same period last year, + 38.1% in the same period last year, and higher growth in 19Q1 than in the same period last year, including 1.82 billion yuan in residential decoration, + 37.0% in the same period last year, and 2.93 billion yuan in public building decoration, + 38.6% in the same period last year.

Gross profit margin is basically flat, asset impairment loss drag net profit margin increased by 14.26% over the past 20 years, year-on-year-0.10pct, building decoration / curtain wall decoration gross profit margin + 1.5% Michael 1.2% year-on-year. During the 20-year period, the expense rate is 9.03%, year-on-year + 0.25pct, sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate year-on-year-0.27pm "0.68MB" 0.39Mather 0.16pct, R & D investment continues to increase, department assembly product research and development increases, assets (including credit) impairment loss 190 million yuan, the proportion of income increased to 1.76%, the 20-year net interest rate under the combined impact is 3.07%, year-on-year-1.03pct.

In the past 20 years, the net inflow of CFO of the company was 550 million yuan, year-on-year + 29.3%, cash-to-cash ratio-6.49pct to 99.25%, cash-to-cash ratio + 2.68pct to 75.00% CFO net outflow of company Q1, + 3.4%, mainly due to the normal procurement and expenditure of the decoration industry in the first quarter, cash-to-cash ratio of 153.89% to 186.64%, year-on-year + 14.11 cash ratio of 35.37pct, collection remained in good condition.

The industrial assembly takes the lead in strength and maintains the rating of "increasing holdings".

At present, in the aspect of industrial assembly, the company has mastered the mature operation mode, through the optimization and improvement of material end, production end, design end, construction end and so on, to realize the accurate control of the whole industrial chain of industrial assembly. From the model houses all over the country to the contemporary reputation project in Chengdu, the company has promoted industrial assembly products to the market from point to face. Considering that the previous forecast of itemized business income is on the high side, we downgrade the 21-22 year net profit to 490 million yuan (the previous value is 640 million yuan), and introduce 23-year performance forecast of 730 million yuan, referring to the current comparable company's 21-year Wind consensus forecast PE average of 17.43 times, approving the company's 21-year 23 times PE, target price of 8.51 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk Tip: the payback of the order is not as expected, the prefabricated decoration business is not as expected, and the implementation of the project in hand is not as expected.

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