Performance summary: 1) the company achieved revenue of 1.27 billion yuan (+ 4.1%) in 2020, net profit of 170 million yuan (- 20.1%), and non-return net profit of 160 million yuan (- 20.1%). In the fourth quarter of 2020, the company achieved revenue of 470 million yuan (+ 29.3%) and net profit of 67.19 million yuan (- 4.1%). 2) in the first quarter of 2021, the company realized revenue of 350 million yuan (+ 52.3%), net profit of 36.14 million yuan (+ 28.0%), and non-return net profit of 32 million yuan (+ 22.1%).
The high export boom is the main reason for the high revenue growth, while US tariffs, rising raw material prices and foreign exchange losses put pressure on profitability. Q4 in 2020 and Q1 in 2021 continued to recover from the epidemic, the demand for sofa putters for the company's main products recovered, the company's products continued to be in short supply, and the company's revenue grew rapidly in both quarters. However, the company's profitability declined, with gross profit margins of 31.0% (- 5.4%) and 25.1% (- 5.7%) in the two quarters, and net profit rates of 14.4% (- 5.0%) and 10.2% (- 1.9%), respectively. The main reasons include: 1) tariffs on US exports of desk products and sofa putter products have been restored in August last year and January this year, respectively. Increase the cost 2) since Q4 last year, the prices of raw materials such as steel and plastic particles have increased greatly, and the cost of the company has increased; 3) the US dollar has continued to depreciate against the RMB, and the financial expenses of Q4 in 2020 and Q1 in 2021 have increased by about 12 million and 4 million respectively compared with the same period.
The new plant will be completed to solve the capacity bottleneck, and excellent selection and R & D capabilities will set a new benchmark for the industry. At present, the civil construction work of the company's IPO project has been completed and the equipment is being moved in. The completion of the new plant has completely solved the bottleneck of production capacity that has plagued the company, and laid a good foundation for the development of the company in the next few years.
In the linear drive industry where emerging applications emerge one after another, the company is determined to forge ahead. Recently, new products such as photovoltaic tracking bracket putters and unmanned distribution trolley putters continue to land, reflecting the company's excellent selection and new product research and development capabilities. According to the data disclosed by Wood Mackenzie, the global tracking stent penetration rate was 29.3% in 2019, and the shipment volume reached 35.2 GW. According to the estimated unit price of 0.68 yuan / W, the industry scale in 2019 is 23.94 billion yuan. Future development will benefit from the increase in photovoltaic installed capacity and the increase in tracking stent permeability. Under the background of the increasing pressure of logistics and distribution and the continuous decline of the working-age population in China, unmanned distribution is an important way to solve the "last kilometer" pain point of logistics and distribution. according to the results of 36 Krypton Venture Capital Research Institute, the overall market scale of unmanned distribution is at least between 304 billion and 509 billion. At present, domestic giant companies such as JD.com and Cainiao have joined the bureau. The giant's strong ability to integrate resources and the cost reduction brought about by technological maturity will greatly accelerate the development of the industry.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.04 million, corresponding to the times of PE in 27-21-17. The company's excellent product selection and new product research and development capabilities will support the company's rapid development in the future and maintain its "buy" rating.
Risk tips: intensified market competition; new product development is not as expected; exchange losses; upstream raw material prices.
